Cameron Leckie Profile picture
Oct 13 β€’ 5 tweets β€’ 2 min read β€’ Read on X
1. Another must πŸ“š contribution by @baoshaoshan

"While the πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ struggles to rebuild the factories of yesterday, πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ is building the industrial geography of tomorrow"

At this point, it should be clear that the πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ 'operating system' has won

open.substack.com/pub/warwickpow…Image
2. Not only has it won, but the gap is & will grow wider as @baoshaoshan highlights

The rational steps for the πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ & collective West is not to try & build an alternate to the πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ system to 'decouple' or achieve 'supply chain resilience' (e.g. πŸ‘‡)

aspistrategist.org.au/without-supply…
3. The likely result will be something like πŸ‘‡

Warwick lays out why:

"by the time πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ vertical integration is complete, the world will already be horizontally integrated through πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³-supported industrial ecosystems that define the next global cost frontier" Image
4. Having tried all other options other than direct military conflict to contain πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ (Plan A), we are at an apparent crossroads

Will the πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ & its coterie continue with the Crusade against Multipolarity in a desperate & nihilistic tantrum to regain some form Image
5. of dominance (improbable that it will succeed due to a lack of industrial capacity & reliance on this it seeks to destroy)?

Or will it comes to terms with its place as one of several powerful nodes in the multi-polar 🌎, & work with rather than against the Rest?

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More from @leckie_cameron

Aug 10
1. It's worth remembering that the Trump-Putin negotiations, at least to πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί, are about much than whether a particular Oblast in πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ becomes πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί or not

πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί primary objectives were outlined in the draft treaty proposed by πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί in December 2021

comw.org/pda/fulltext/R…
2. Article One:

"The Parties shall cooperate on the basis of principles of indivisible,
equal and undiminished security and to these ends:

- shall not undertake actions nor participate in or support activities that affect the security of the other Party"
3. The last three years could be viewed as the continuation of politics by military means to force the πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ to the point where πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ negotiations on these substantive matters have become possible

The πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ relationship is the most important in the 🌎 - for either could destroy the
Read 4 tweets
Jul 31
1. Improving πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ relations

One step at a time

I had the opportunity to listen to @RuanZongzeCGBne πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Consul General (CG) at @unisqaus today

A very interesting talk & discussion on πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ perspective on 🌎 affairs & πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί-πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ relations Image
2. The CG started by reflecting on how facism was defeated 80 years ago, including πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ significant role, yet we are now at a crossroads:

Peace vs War

Openness vs division

Win-Win vs Zero Sum
3. On Trump's "tariff salami" he said that πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ would never accept the tariff war & upholds the interests of people 🌎 wide for open economies & supply chains

The CG argued that a multilateral (e.g. WTO) approach is the only viable path in a system based on fairness not hegemony
Read 14 tweets
Jul 23
1. In trying to draw out lessons that πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί should heed in developing its next National Defence Strategy, @WarInTheFuture has produced a classic example of why, for the sake of our national security, his analysis should be ignored

lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…
2. Ryan claims that "democracies face a sustained, multi-generational confrontation with the major authoritarian powers" & suggests that understanding the vulnerabilities of the 'authoritarian' powers is important so they might be targeted to degrade
3. their aggression, resources and influence

This is empire evangelism 101, a thinly veiled attempt to justify the re-establishment of πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ hegemonic power, aka the 'rules based order'
Read 13 tweets
Jul 7
1. @JAParker29 via @ASPI_org offers a truly abysmal analysis on so many levels

"if deterrence fails, we must be ready to defend our vital interests"

Not the least of which is conflating the fate of πŸ‡ΉπŸ‡Ό with πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί vital interests

aspistrategist.org.au/dont-kid-yours…
2. The focus of the entire article is an invasion of πŸ‡ΉπŸ‡Ό by πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³

But never considers the obvious trigger for any conflict being the πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ efforts to contain, disrupt & ultimately defeat πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³

πŸ‡ΉπŸ‡Ό is just a tool for the πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ to bring about such an occurrence, just as πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ was for πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί
3. So we get the 2027 timetable

"πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ military and intelligence officials have warned that 2027 marks another key milestone: the date that Xi Jinping has instructed his military to have the capability to invade πŸ‡ΉπŸ‡Ό"

Without noting what should be obvious- that is the πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
Read 7 tweets
Jul 2
1. @stephendziedzic via @abcnews
Creates a fake setback for πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³

πŸ‡«πŸ‡― PM "has delivered a blow to πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ security ambitions in the Pacific"

⚠️ 🚨 😲

The PM said πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ bases aren't welcome but

abc.net.au/news/2025-07-0…
2. "also stressed he doesn't believe that πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ is actively looking for such a security foothold in the Pacific"

So if πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ isn't looking for a military bases in the Pacific, how does πŸ‡«πŸ‡― not supporting πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ having bases equate to a "blow"?

In an admittedly quick search, I can't
3. find a reference to πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ seeking a military base in πŸ‡«πŸ‡― & the article doesn't make such a claim either

But what we do get is (from @LowyInstitute):

"My takeaway was that the prime minister fundamentally does not want to recognise πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ strategic intent."

In other words
Read 6 tweets
Apr 16
1. Why I am πŸƒβ€β™‚οΈ reason #2

#AUKUS

AKA as the 'worst deal of the century', it is a symptom of everything wrong with πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί defence policy

An anachronism to times past

A wealth transfer to the Military Industrial Complex

A loss of sovereignty

It's got to be stopped #auspol βœ‹οΈ Image
2. As both a retired Army officer & soil scientist, I am far more concerned about the state of our environment than any credible military threat πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί faces. Image
3. For 70% of the initial price of AUKUS, we could fix 200 years of land degradation.

Or we could waste much more than that on some steel coffins

The opportunity cost is huge!

wentworthgroup.org/2024/07/bluepr…
Read 7 tweets

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