Joni Askola Profile picture
Oct 13 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/8 Putin's Perspective — If you were Putin, this is the nightmare you’d be living:

You started a useless war that was supposed to last days. It has lasted years.

You thought Ukraine would fold. Instead, it became stronger, more united, and more militarized than ever Image
2/8 You started a useless war.

You made this non-existential war existential. You went all in.

You sacrificed your economy, your military, and your global standing.

And you are further from your goals than before the war began. Pathetic! Image
3/8 You wanted NATO to back off. Instead, it expanded.

You wanted to divide the West. Instead, it rallied.

You wanted to weaken Ukraine. Instead, it became a symbol of resistance Image
4/8 Your army is exhausted.

Your economy is bleeding.

Your allies are watching.

Your enemies are learning how to beat you Image
5/8 You turned Russia into a war economy.

But it barely grows and inflation is high.

Civilian sectors are collapsing. Recruitment costs are rising.

Ukraine’s strikes are hitting your core industries Image
6/8 You thought you were feared. Now you are mocked.

You thought you were building an empire. Now you are losing influence.

This lost war will be your legacy Image
7/8 Your legacy is not greatness.
It is failure.

You will be remembered not for restoring Russia, but for breaking it.

Not for strength, but for fear, lies, war crimes, and destruction Image
8/8 You started a war you didn’t need. You made it about survival.

And now, survival is slipping away.

This is the cost of believing your own lies.

This will be your legacy Image

• • •

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More from @joni_askola

Oct 13
1/6 Russia’s economy is falling apart.

Ukraine’s strike campaign is hitting key sectors hard.

Even before the war, Russia’s economy was fragile: reliant on energy exports, too centralized, corrupt, and facing a labor crisis.

The war made it all worse Image
2/6 The war has made everything worse.

Russia now depends on energy exports and the defense industry.

Civilian sectors are starved of labor.

The economy is shrinking from within Image
3/6 Despite massive public spending, Russia barely grows.

Inflation is rising, but output is flat.

If any Western country increased its spending this much, it would see a boom.

Russia sees stagnation. That is a disaster Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 12
1/4 How many more successful strikes will it take to break Russia’s economy, and how long will it take?

No one knows for sure, and it could take a long time.

The faster Ukraine scales up drone and missile production, the faster the war will end Image
2/4 Ukraine has hit Russia’s refineries hard in recent months.

Russia’s economy is already suffering from the war.

It is important to stay realistic. Russia still has ways to buy time Image
3/4 Trump could change US policy.

Russia could raise taxes, seek more aid from allies, privatize assets, seize oligarch wealth, move infrastructure east, and strike Ukraine’s defense production Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 12
1/6 Russia’s war on Ukraine may have entered its final stage.

However, this stage could be long, brutal, and extremely costly Image
2/6 For the first time in nearly 4 years of full-scale war, long-range strikes are shaping the war’s future more than movements on the front lines Image
3/6 Russia has bombarded Ukraine since day one.

Ukraine has been striking back for over a year.

Now, both sides produce so many drones and missiles that strike campaigns may matter more than territorial control Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 10
1/7 A rough winter is coming to Ukraine.

Russia will strike harder than ever, with more drones and missiles than in previous years.

Europe has a duty to act now to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses.

There is no time to waste Image
2/7 We need to place urgent orders for more SAMP/T, IRIS-T, and other effective systems.

That includes Patriot batteries, while Trump still allows them to be sold.

Ukraine needs them.

There is no excuse not to act Image
3/7 France and Italy produce the SAMP/T, the only European system with range comparable to the Patriot.

Ukraine already operates two batteries but likely lacks interceptors.

Production levels are still far too low Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 9
1/5 The war in Ukraine seems to be entering a new phase.

Frontline movements may soon matter less to the war’s future than long-range strikes.

A race to force the other side to give up has begun.

Russia started long ago. Ukraine is finally catching up Image
2/5 Russia understands the stakes. Its leadership will do everything it can to cripple Ukraine’s drone and missile production.

General Gerasimov has openly said this is now a priority.

Ukraine likely has similar plans for Russia’s production Image
3/5 Ukraine’s drone and missile production is its strongest card to accelerate the end of the war.

Let’s hope it is wisely organized: underground, abroad, and/or in hardened facilities Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 9
1/5 If Putin's goal was to get as many Russians killed as possible without achieving anything, then he has succeeded.

This war is a disaster. The numbers speak for themselves Image
2/5 @KilledInUkraine has confirmed 7,000 dead Russian officers.

These are just the ones identified through public obituaries and graves. The real number is even higher.

And officers are supposed to survive more than the soldiers they lead Image
3/5 Officers are a small minority of the army.

They are better trained, more valuable, and usually kept out of the riskiest roles.

When thousands of them die, it’s not just tragic for Russia. It’s a sign of total dysfunction Image
Read 5 tweets

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