Chris Elmendorf Profile picture
Oct 13 22 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Now that @GavinNewsom has signed SB 79, it's time to write #4 and #5 of the threads I promised.

This is SB 79 🧵#4: Advice for local gov't officials.

Read it if you're feeling stuck b/t pitchfork- or recall-wielding NIMBYs and the demands of state law.

1/21
First suggestion: Do everything you can to *maximize transparency* about where, when & how SB 79 applies -- and about the discretion it confers on city councils to alter SB 79 default rules or roll back other upzonings.

/2
I say this not b/c I think transparency is inherently good. Rather, I think it has real instrumental benefits for councilpersons who fear a NIMBY uprising.

Clarity about where SB 79 applies will, at least on margin, lead to geographic reshuffling of population.

/3
The most density-averse residents will move out of the SB-79 zones, and others who are more tolerant or even welcoming of SB 79 will move in. This will reduce local opposition to SB 79 projects (which could save your hide).

/4
Clarity about SB 79's application also avoids unwelcome surprises and equips people who really don't like it to make concrete appeals to the state legislature. ("Blame Sacramento, not me!")

/5
And clarity about its application will also give your constituents plenty of time to organize and propose "Eckhouse plans" before the full-force version of SB 79 kicks in (a year into the 7th housing-element cycle, or roughly 2030).

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So, how to achieve clarity?

- Create an SB 79 website, w/ maps of local SB 79 zones & height/density/FAR allowed in each, both by default & under local ordinance, if any.

Website should also explain "Eckhouse plan" concept & invite suggestions.



/7
- Lobby your MPO to issue its official SB 79 map as soon as possible. Then use it in your website.

The MPO's map carries a presumption of correctness for purposes of the default SB 79 rules (GC 65912.157) and calculations of the sufficiency of an Eckhouse Plan.

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- Lobby @California_HCD to issue ASAP (1) guidelines for its review of SB 79 implementation & Eckhouse ordinances, and (2) standards for counting SB 79 capacity toward RHNA obligations.

Implore HCD to choose bright-line rules over mushy standards whenever possible.

/9
Clear HCD rules will make it much easier for your constituents to understand how SB 79 applies and what is your zone of discretion when it comes to implementing ordinances & Eckhouse plans.

/10
HCD is likely to resist issuing clear rules. They'll say they don't have the authority.

(SB 79 authorizes HCD to issue standards for counting SB 79 capacity toward RHNA, but doesn't say anything about rulemaking or guidelines for other purposes.)

No matter. For reasons...

/11
I'll explain in Thread #5 (advice to Leg), the Leg will have to pass a trailer bill next spring exempting HCD's standards for SB 79 "RHNA counting" from the APA.
Other SB 79 standards or guidelines can be validated by the same bill.

/12
Next big theme: Beware of propitiating your NIMBY constituents via legally questionable policies that try to exploit ambiguities in SB 79.

Why? B/c, starting 1/1/2027, SB 79 imposes severe sanctions on cities that unlawfully disapprove SB projects in high-resource areas.

/13
A court *shall* fine the city at least $10,000 per unit that was unlawfully denied.

Courts have discretion to impose larger fines, and a city that has a track record of gamesmanship w.r.t. SB 79 is likely to be hit with bigger penalties.

/14


One way to demonstrate good faith (and thus minimize potential fines) is to ask @California_HCD for a TA memo if you're unclear about whether you may disapprove an SB 79 project or condition its approval in particular ways.

/15
Another way is to acquiesce in any reasonable HCD finding of noncompliance with respect to your SB 79 implementation ordinance or Eckhouse plan, rather than exercising your prerogative to adopt the ordinance over HCD's objection.

/16
Next theme: Recognize opportunity!

SB 79 may put you in a tough spot with some of your constituents, but it also opens doors.

/17
E.g., a case decided last week has probably rendered your housing-element rezoning unlawful. You'll need to fix it quickly or risk lawsuits & builder's remedy projects.

One quick fix is to opt into SB 79 early, w/ or w/o Eckhouse plan. No CEQA required!
More generally, SB 79 should help you navigate between the competing demands of your NIMBY constituents and the YIMBY and Chamber of Commerce types who want more housing.

It lets you upzone and approve more housing while shifting blame to the state.

/19
Last thought: Expect fluidity. Prepare your constituents for it.

SB 79 is a work in progress. The Leg is likely to hammer on it year by year, fixing problems as they arise, much like ADU law.

/20
Tell your constituents to go to the Leg if there are specific things they want changed.

And design your SB 79 website in the expectation that it will need to be updated at least annually.

/end
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More from @CSElmendorf

Oct 13
SB 79 Thread #5.2: Advice for Leg, longer term.

tl, dr: I agree w/ @mnolangray that Leg should focus on (1) lowering construction costs, and (2) protecting incumbent tenants w/o blocking redevelopment on fair terms to tenants.

I also think (3) that...

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Leg should probably try to accommodate the most passionate & deep-pocketed NIMBYs, who might otherwise bring the whole framework crashing down.

Worst case is a "Prop 13 for land use" ballot measure.

/2
Short of a nuclear ballot-measure, NIMBY opposition to SB 79 could induce cities to pass local measures that hinder multifamily housing development across the board, not just SB 79 projects.

/3
Read 26 tweets
Oct 13
SB 79 Thread #5.1: Advice for the Legislature, short term.

Leg needs to pass an SB 79 cleanup bill as part of the next budget, i.e., a cleanup that takes effect on 7/1/2026.

This thread addresses the cleanup; SB 79 Thread #5.2 will look to the future.

1/8
The cleanup is needed b/c SB 79 tells @California_HCD to "promulgate standards" by 7/1/2026 for counting SB 79 capacity toward RHNA, yet (unlike other laws conferring standard-setting authority on HCD), it doesn't exempt HCD from the Administrative Procedures Act.

/2 Image
The Cal APA's notice-and-comment requirements are notoriously cumbersome, far worse than those of the also-very-cumbersome federal APA.

There's not a chance that HCD gets it done through the Cal APA process by the deadline.

/3
Read 12 tweets
Oct 11
A 🧵on rolling the dice ⤵️ on mid-cycle Builder's Remedy, in light of New Commune v. Redondo Beach.

I'll sketch the argument for the builder, the counterargument, and why I think @California_HCD, @AGRobBonta, and the courts should probably accept the counterargument.

1/25
See screenshots for relevant statutory text.

Key idea: A city found to be in compliance by HCD is compliant as a matter of law until HCD has revoked its finding or the finding has been "superseded by ... a decision of a court of competent jurisdiction."

/2 Image
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"Superseded by a court" could mean (1) that a court rejected a legal theory that HCD relied upon in certifying a city's housing element (@DRand2024's view, I think), or (2) that the court found that city's HE or rezoning noncompliant (my view).

/3
Read 26 tweets
Oct 11
BIG new decision from Court of Appeal on housing-element law.

@DRand2024 says mid-cycle builder's remedy projects are coming soon. S/t one small caveat, I agree!

The decision also has big implications for sites analysis. Is p(dev) approach now de facto required?

🧵/22 Image
The court's first holding concerns the detailed statutory requirements for rezoning for "lower income" RHNA.

GC 65583.2(h) spells out minimum density requirements (16 or 20 du/acre) for sites that cities rezone to make up a "lower-income RHNA shortfall."

/2 Image
In Martinez v. Clovis, Court of Appeal held that an "overlay" zone violates these min-density requirements if residential use (at lower density) is allowed by base zoning.


/3
Read 23 tweets
Oct 5
I wrote a long 🧵 yesterday on my puzzlement about the chatter that @GavinNewsom or his advisors might think it'd be politically prudent to veto SB 79.

Today I'll explain why I don't think he'll cave.

tl,dr: he's a bold idealist and fundamentally good on housing!

1/🧵
Context: I don't know Newsom or any of his top advisors personally. (I met him once at a law-school commencement ceremony, that's all.)

But I've watched him for a long time, first as my mayor in San Francisco, then as Lt. Governor and Governor.

/2
His defining quality as a politician is a willingness, even an eagerness, to make big, idealistic bets on the future.
He's a first mover, always looking for the new thing.

/3
Read 21 tweets
Sep 19
New Searchlight poll validates essentially all of the takeaways from my work w/ @ClaytonNall & @stan_okl on housing "supply skepticism" in the mass public.

(They got substantively similar results using different questions on a different sample.)

1/8
Point #1: Most people want lower housing prices--including most homeowners!

/2 Image
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Point #2: Most people don't believe that a positive housing supply shock would result in lower prices. (This implied by "personal finances" item on Searchlight poll, as well as "home values.")

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Read 9 tweets

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