Chris Elmendorf Profile picture
Oct 13 26 tweets 6 min read Read on X
SB 79 Thread #5.2: Advice for Leg, longer term.

tl, dr: I agree w/ @mnolangray that Leg should focus on (1) lowering construction costs, and (2) protecting incumbent tenants w/o blocking redevelopment on fair terms to tenants.

I also think (3) that...

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Leg should probably try to accommodate the most passionate & deep-pocketed NIMBYs, who might otherwise bring the whole framework crashing down.

Worst case is a "Prop 13 for land use" ballot measure.

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Short of a nuclear ballot-measure, NIMBY opposition to SB 79 could induce cities to pass local measures that hinder multifamily housing development across the board, not just SB 79 projects.

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While SB 79 prevent local gov'ts from enacting development controls that discriminate against SB 79 projects, it doesn't bar local measures that impair development everywhere.

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I'm particularly worried about new demolition controls, but NIMBY cities may also respond w/ higher IZ; infeasible minimum-density, min.-height & min.-amenity requirements (see: Texas); higher impact fees; costly building-material mandates; & more.

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texastribune.org/2025/09/03/tex…
In CA, unlike TX, such evasive tactics will be checked by the Housing Crisis Act's "no backsliding relative to 2018" rule.

But it's not clear how far this limitation reaches, and city councils under pressure from NIMBYs may test the limits.

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Extant "protections for NIMBYs" are a little weird.

If your lot is part of a subdivision w/ covenants that restrict development to SFHs, no SB 79 project can go up nearby. (In all likelihood, the covenants renew automatically every 30+ years.)

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But if your lot is not part of covenanted subdivision (generally true of older homes), you're "protected" against SB 79 projects only if you can persuade city council to landmark all the houses nearby -- or to pass demo controls or cost-prohibitive dev. standards.

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I don't think this disparity between covenanted & non-covenants properties is warranted & I doubt it does a great job distinguishing the most NIMBY neighborhoods from n'hoods that are more tolerant.

(Covenants reflect age of subdivision, not current preferences.)

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To fix it, the Leg could:
- (1) make HOA covenants lapse if not affirmatively renewed by supermajority vote of homeowners once a generation;
- (2) give cities more leeway to remove parcels from SB 79 w/o pretextual landmarking or demo controls

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E.g., Leg could authorize cities to prohibit SB 79 projects on (say) up to 25% of land area within SB 79 zones, while banning local demo controls in the rest of the SB 79 zones & requiring cities to reallocate the forgone density elsewhere.

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Leg could also condition SB 79 exclusions on Houston-style opt-out petitions, to ensure that they respond to actual neighborhood concerns, rather than city councils projecting their own NIMBY ideology.

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worksinprogress.co/issue/houston-…
Leg could also soften NIMBY opposition by authorizing cities to ban street parking for residents of SB 79 projects, or to convert residents' street-parking permits into tradable property.


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Any NIMBY accommodation should be paired with measures that strengthen SB 79 in the non-exempted areas. E.g.:
- ban local demo controls (as noted)
- cap local minimum density requirements
- clarify that for 7th cycle, SB 79 implementation ordinances & "Eckhouse plans"...

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must, like a housing element, be approved by HCD or court to forestall direct implementation of GC 65912.157, x.com/CSElmendorf/st…
- authorize HCD to preempt local dev. standards that unreasonably impair the financial feasibility of SB 79 projects, x.com/CSElmendorf/st…

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What about those other big cans of worms, tenant protections and the cost of building?

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On tenant protections, I'd love to see a grand bargain where Leg enacts a rental registry (long opposed by @caanet) -- and requires tenant-buyout agreements to be registered -- in exchange for allowing redevelopment of any property s/t a duly registered buyout.

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Leg could impose other procedural protections for tenants, e.g., notice of SB 330 rights prior to buyout, cooling off period, etc.

I also think Leg should authorize buyouts by supermajority vote of tenants, so that small minorities can't stymie tenant majorities.

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Tenant-protection law should prevent landlords from exploiting asymmetric info (e.g., about value of buyout or tenant rights), and cushion tenants against economic shocks, not lock bad land uses into place.

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The anti-buyout status quo is lose-lose-lose: bad for current tenants, bad for future tenants, and bad for landlords.

The fact that a few advocacy orgs like it is a poor reason to maintain it.

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Finally, the cost of building!

There's so much to be said about it but only 5 tweets left in this thread.

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Big picture, I would love to see:

- Incorporation of the SB 35 / AB 130 labor deal into SB 423 & AB 2011, so that ministerial projects can be done w/ market-rate labor if project isn't a high-rise.

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- Cost-benefit audits of building codes.
(@GavinNewsom issued a good exec directive about cost of building but I don't know that anything has come of it, )

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- Direct updating of the building code by the Legislature with respect to narrow, priority issues (e.g., single-stair, elevator size). As other states are doing!

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- Replacement of impact fees & unfunded IZ mandates with parcel taxes.
(I'll be writing more about this soon so stay tuned.)

/end

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More from @CSElmendorf

Oct 13
SB 79 Thread #5.1: Advice for the Legislature, short term.

Leg needs to pass an SB 79 cleanup bill as part of the next budget, i.e., a cleanup that takes effect on 7/1/2026.

This thread addresses the cleanup; SB 79 Thread #5.2 will look to the future.

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The cleanup is needed b/c SB 79 tells @California_HCD to "promulgate standards" by 7/1/2026 for counting SB 79 capacity toward RHNA, yet (unlike other laws conferring standard-setting authority on HCD), it doesn't exempt HCD from the Administrative Procedures Act.

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The Cal APA's notice-and-comment requirements are notoriously cumbersome, far worse than those of the also-very-cumbersome federal APA.

There's not a chance that HCD gets it done through the Cal APA process by the deadline.

/3
Read 12 tweets
Oct 13
Now that @GavinNewsom has signed SB 79, it's time to write #4 and #5 of the threads I promised.

This is SB 79 🧵#4: Advice for local gov't officials.

Read it if you're feeling stuck b/t pitchfork- or recall-wielding NIMBYs and the demands of state law.

1/21
First suggestion: Do everything you can to *maximize transparency* about where, when & how SB 79 applies -- and about the discretion it confers on city councils to alter SB 79 default rules or roll back other upzonings.

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I say this not b/c I think transparency is inherently good. Rather, I think it has real instrumental benefits for councilpersons who fear a NIMBY uprising.

Clarity about where SB 79 applies will, at least on margin, lead to geographic reshuffling of population.

/3
Read 22 tweets
Oct 11
A 🧵on rolling the dice ⤵️ on mid-cycle Builder's Remedy, in light of New Commune v. Redondo Beach.

I'll sketch the argument for the builder, the counterargument, and why I think @California_HCD, @AGRobBonta, and the courts should probably accept the counterargument.

1/25
See screenshots for relevant statutory text.

Key idea: A city found to be in compliance by HCD is compliant as a matter of law until HCD has revoked its finding or the finding has been "superseded by ... a decision of a court of competent jurisdiction."

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"Superseded by a court" could mean (1) that a court rejected a legal theory that HCD relied upon in certifying a city's housing element (@DRand2024's view, I think), or (2) that the court found that city's HE or rezoning noncompliant (my view).

/3
Read 26 tweets
Oct 11
BIG new decision from Court of Appeal on housing-element law.

@DRand2024 says mid-cycle builder's remedy projects are coming soon. S/t one small caveat, I agree!

The decision also has big implications for sites analysis. Is p(dev) approach now de facto required?

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The court's first holding concerns the detailed statutory requirements for rezoning for "lower income" RHNA.

GC 65583.2(h) spells out minimum density requirements (16 or 20 du/acre) for sites that cities rezone to make up a "lower-income RHNA shortfall."

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In Martinez v. Clovis, Court of Appeal held that an "overlay" zone violates these min-density requirements if residential use (at lower density) is allowed by base zoning.


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Read 23 tweets
Oct 5
I wrote a long 🧵 yesterday on my puzzlement about the chatter that @GavinNewsom or his advisors might think it'd be politically prudent to veto SB 79.

Today I'll explain why I don't think he'll cave.

tl,dr: he's a bold idealist and fundamentally good on housing!

1/🧵
Context: I don't know Newsom or any of his top advisors personally. (I met him once at a law-school commencement ceremony, that's all.)

But I've watched him for a long time, first as my mayor in San Francisco, then as Lt. Governor and Governor.

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His defining quality as a politician is a willingness, even an eagerness, to make big, idealistic bets on the future.
He's a first mover, always looking for the new thing.

/3
Read 21 tweets
Sep 19
New Searchlight poll validates essentially all of the takeaways from my work w/ @ClaytonNall & @stan_okl on housing "supply skepticism" in the mass public.

(They got substantively similar results using different questions on a different sample.)

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Point #1: Most people want lower housing prices--including most homeowners!

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Point #2: Most people don't believe that a positive housing supply shock would result in lower prices. (This implied by "personal finances" item on Searchlight poll, as well as "home values.")

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Read 9 tweets

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