Clément Molin Profile picture
Oct 14, 2025 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
For the first time in months, Russia 🇷🇺 launched tanks and armoured vehicles in Ukraine 🇺🇦

2 years after the large scale Avdiivka offensive, russian forces tried to storm the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka area of the frontline, losing around 30 armoured vehicles.

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The main use of tanks, IFV and AFV was during the Avdiivka-Donestk offensive, mainly between october 2023 and may 2024.

Then, it was slowly abandonned. Since the first months of 2025, the use of armoured vehicles nearly disappeared. Image
Why ?

Because Russia was slowly lacking reserves in armoured vehicles and drone warfare was making their use more and more dangerous.

Most of them have been put away from the front during months and endured some changes. Image
Now that the summer is finishing, the roads are getting more and more muddy.

It is thus impossible to do assaults with motorcycles and ladas while assaulting on foots without cover is increasingly dangerous. This is the main reason for this come back.
On these long videos published by ukrainian forces we can see columns of armoured vehicles and tanks assaulting ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk.

For 2 months, russians have had difficulties to reach Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, mainly failing to take strongholds.
One of the assaults was trying to reach Myrnohrad, especially taking control over the mine west of the city, a ukrainian stronghold. They lost 4 vehicles here. Image
Another axis was the Kostiantynivka-Pokrovsk highway. In this area, multiple russian columns have been destroyed in the previous months, one of the only one where they continued to send tanks and armoured vehicles. Image
However, the main assaulted direction is the village of Shakove, a ukrainian stronghold.

Russia launched multiple armoured vehicles, hundreds of soldiers and motorcycles here to break the ukrainian defenses. Shakove is protecting the whole direction. Image
Despite multiple assaults on Volodymyrivka, just south of Shakove, the russians still didn't managed to take it.

Now, it is mainly a grey zone and tens of soldiers have been brought here, they will probably try to gain a strong foothold here and in Shakove. Image
Using armoured vehicles is somewhat new this year, it is also the result of months of reinforcements.

At 0:25 there is an interesting footage. You can see that the ditch forces the BTR to use the road, which has been mined. That's how dtches should be used.
The importance of fortifications : to reach Shakove from the main assault route, they need to stay on this road (because of the 6 anti-tank obstacles).

-> it concentrates the ukrainian fire on a single road. Image
And it's exactly the same with infantry and barbed wire :

They need to walk in the only zones where there are no barbed wire. Here, we can see a recent picture and a 1 month old one (Novotoretsk'e). Image
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What is happening near Pokrovsk ?

The grey zone is increasingly big, it is getting more and more difficult to consolidate any progress. Pokrovsk is still safe, fightings are ongoing in Rodynske and Udachne, while some infiltrations are ongoing in the south of the city. Image
The main objectif for russian forces now is to expand the Dobropilla bridgehead, by taking Shakove. Then, they will be able to connect again with their isolated troops north-west.

They will also try to consolidate gains near Myrnohrad. Image
In one month, the tree cover will have disapeared, preventing infantry infiltration. The weather may affect drones, which is also important to remember.

Thus, Russia has to reach (and consolidate around) Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka before the winter to assault it.
I finish this thread with the wide preparation of new defensive lines, especially away from Donbass region.

Main new lines :

-Pavlohrad-Novomykholaivka
-Vilniansk-Zaporijia
-3rd Donbass line (behind Kramatorsk) Image

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More from @clement_molin

Jan 13
La Moldavie🇲🇩 entre danger à l'est face à la Transnistrie et perspectives de réunification avec la Roumanie 🇷🇴

De l'autre côté de la frontière, l'armée ukrainienne 🇺🇦 se tient prête face à la menace de l'état séparatiste et de ses soldats russes.

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La question moldave est revenue dans l'actualité, comme très régulièrement depuis 4 ans, avec cette fois une déclaration choc de la président Maia Sandu, qui "voterait pour la réunification avec la Roumanie s'il y avait un référendum". Image
Si près de 85% de la population du pays se dit moldave ou roumaine (très similaires, histoire commune, les moldaves sont plus nombreux en roumanie), il y a environ 15% de minorités (ukrainiens, russes, gagaouzes, bulgares, allemands, roms...) et la réunification fait 50/50.
Read 16 tweets
Jan 11
Turkiye 🇹🇷, Chad 🇹🇩, UAE 🇦🇪, Kenya 🇰🇪, Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦... who supports who in the Sudan war ?

The Sudan 🇸🇩 war opposing SAF and RSF is no longer a local war for power but rather a regional confrontation between multiple countries.

🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️Image
Disclaimer : mapping which country supports the RSF and FSR does not mean everything is correct. Russia and Ukraine are not allied, Ethiopia is closed to Turkiye and Saudi Arabia and multiple countries are barely involved or neutral so I kept them in white.

The borders you can see is not the recognized border map but the actual control lines. In black stands djihadist groups, in green SAF allies and in red RSF allies.

Feel free to give me informations on the countries that I mapped as "neutral".Image
Countries supporting the Sudanese Armed Forces :

The SAF was during a long time without serious allies, but the situation recently changed after they liberated the capital Kharoum.

Here, we'll see the main SAF allies and foreign proxies : Image
Read 24 tweets
Jan 8
The United-Arab-Emirates 🇦🇪 foreign policy : divider of countries, ally of Israel and the Western world, resolute fighter against Islamism...

Today, let's dive into the UAE foreign policy to understand why it is that much aggressive and contested ?

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They lost in Yemen during these last days, but it was previously a victory for the UAE :

-created a pseudo separatist state of South-Arabia
-took control of Aden city in 2018
-invaded and occupied the strategic and touristic Socotra island
-annexed other islands Image
Let's get back to the history of the UAE foreign policy :

After gaining independence in 1971, the UAE pursued a foreign policy that was:

▪️Discreet and defensive
▪️Closely aligned with Saudi Arabia and the United States
▪️Focused on the survival of the young federal state Image
Read 24 tweets
Jan 6
C'est passé inaperçu mais l'Arabie Saoudite 🇸🇦 vient de mettre un coup à la stratégie séparatiste des EAU 🇦🇪 au Yémen 🇾🇪

En quelques jours, le gouvernement pro-saoudien a refoulé les séparatistes qui avaient atteint la frontière saoudienne en décembre.

🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️ Carte de @Vista_CEO
Les tensions entre l'Arabie Saoudite et les Emirats ne font que s'intensifier ces dernières années.

MBS et MBZ, jadis proche alliés, notamment lors du blocus du Qatar ou de l'intervention anti-houthiste au Yémen, sont désormais en pleine confrontation. Image
L'Arabie Saoudite désapprouve en plus haut point la stratégie séparatiste menée par les Emirats en Libye (soutien d'Haftar), au Soudan (soutien des FSR), en Somalie (soutien du Somaliland) et au Yémen (soutien du STC). Image
Read 10 tweets
Jan 5
Les nouvelles lignes de défenses ukrainiennes 🇺🇦 sur une carte simplifiée :

Elles sont au cœur de la nouvelle stratégie défensive 🛡️ukrainienne, robustes, nombreuses et préparées devant les villes, elles devraient entrer en action cette année sur le front 🪖

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️ Image
Je ne vous les présente plus, évidemment, les idiots utiles en commentaires vont continuer de les décrier alors même qu'on a déjà vu leurs résultats, ces lignes sont des lignes d'OBSTACLES, pas des lignes pour y mettre l'infanterie... Image
Par exemple à l'ouest de Pokrovsk, on compte 3 lignes de type New Donbass Line (NDL), en jaune, ainsi que d'autres lignes anciennes ou récentes en blanc (pas NDL). Image
Read 13 tweets
Jan 4
THE WORLD IN 2026 : MULTIPLE WARS ONGOING

From Yemen 🇾🇪 to Ukraine 🇺🇦 passing through Sudan 🇸🇩, Mali 🇲🇱, Haiti 🇭🇹 and the DRC 🇨🇩, war is still ongoing in multiple countries.

Here is what you need to know about it, where are wars and what happened in 2025 :

🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️Image
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Summary :

-Yemen 🇾🇪
-Israel/Palestine 🇮🇱🇵🇸
-Lebanon 🇱🇧
-Syria 🇸🇾
-Iran 🇮🇷
-Ukraine/Russia 🇺🇦🇷🇺
-Sudan 🇸🇩
-Ethiopia 🇪🇹
-Somalia 🇸🇴
-DRC/Rwanda 🇨🇩🇷🇼
-Mozambique 🇲🇿
-Central Africa 🇹🇩🇳🇪🇳🇬🇨🇲🇸🇸🇨🇫
-Sahel 🇲🇱🇳🇪🇧🇫🇸🇳🇬🇳🇨🇮🇬🇭🇹🇬🇧🇯🇳🇬
-Afghanistan/Pakistan 🇦🇫🇵🇰
-Myanmar 🇲🇲
-Thailand/Cambodia 🇹🇭🇰🇭
-Indonesia/Philippines 🇮🇩🇵🇭
-Cartel Wars 🇲🇽🇻🇪🇨🇴🇪🇨🇭🇹
-Others...
Yemen 🇾🇪: South Arabia's Independence, the Saudi-UAE War, Anti-Houthi Bombardments

It had been on hiatus for several years, but the war in Yemen has resumed, within the Arab coalition.

In early December, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a pro-Emirati southern militia, launched a lightning offensive across southern Yemen. On January 2nd, the STC announced the start of the South Arabian independence process. At the same time, supported by significant Saudi reinforcements, the Yemeni National Army and pro-Saudi militias regained control of a large portion of the country that had fallen to the separatists, aided by an anti-Emirati coalition blockade in the Arabian Sea and substantial airstrikes.

In response, the United Arab Emirates withdrew its forces from Yemen, while tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE are escalating, particularly in Sudan, Yemen, and Somalia, where Abu Dhabi's pro-separatist stance is causing discontent.

For their part, the Houthi rebels have ceased their attacks on ships in the Gulf of Aden, although their movements are still being monitored by Israel, which regularly bombs them.Image
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Read 24 tweets

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