For the first time in months, Russia 🇷🇺 launched tanks and armoured vehicles in Ukraine 🇺🇦
2 years after the large scale Avdiivka offensive, russian forces tried to storm the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka area of the frontline, losing around 30 armoured vehicles.
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The main use of tanks, IFV and AFV was during the Avdiivka-Donestk offensive, mainly between october 2023 and may 2024.
Then, it was slowly abandonned. Since the first months of 2025, the use of armoured vehicles nearly disappeared.
Why ?
Because Russia was slowly lacking reserves in armoured vehicles and drone warfare was making their use more and more dangerous.
Most of them have been put away from the front during months and endured some changes.
Now that the summer is finishing, the roads are getting more and more muddy.
It is thus impossible to do assaults with motorcycles and ladas while assaulting on foots without cover is increasingly dangerous. This is the main reason for this come back.
On these long videos published by ukrainian forces we can see columns of armoured vehicles and tanks assaulting ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk.
For 2 months, russians have had difficulties to reach Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, mainly failing to take strongholds.
One of the assaults was trying to reach Myrnohrad, especially taking control over the mine west of the city, a ukrainian stronghold. They lost 4 vehicles here.
Another axis was the Kostiantynivka-Pokrovsk highway. In this area, multiple russian columns have been destroyed in the previous months, one of the only one where they continued to send tanks and armoured vehicles.
However, the main assaulted direction is the village of Shakove, a ukrainian stronghold.
Russia launched multiple armoured vehicles, hundreds of soldiers and motorcycles here to break the ukrainian defenses. Shakove is protecting the whole direction.
Despite multiple assaults on Volodymyrivka, just south of Shakove, the russians still didn't managed to take it.
Now, it is mainly a grey zone and tens of soldiers have been brought here, they will probably try to gain a strong foothold here and in Shakove.
Using armoured vehicles is somewhat new this year, it is also the result of months of reinforcements.
At 0:25 there is an interesting footage. You can see that the ditch forces the BTR to use the road, which has been mined. That's how dtches should be used.
The importance of fortifications : to reach Shakove from the main assault route, they need to stay on this road (because of the 6 anti-tank obstacles).
-> it concentrates the ukrainian fire on a single road.
And it's exactly the same with infantry and barbed wire :
They need to walk in the only zones where there are no barbed wire. Here, we can see a recent picture and a 1 month old one (Novotoretsk'e).
What is happening near Pokrovsk ?
The grey zone is increasingly big, it is getting more and more difficult to consolidate any progress. Pokrovsk is still safe, fightings are ongoing in Rodynske and Udachne, while some infiltrations are ongoing in the south of the city.
The main objectif for russian forces now is to expand the Dobropilla bridgehead, by taking Shakove. Then, they will be able to connect again with their isolated troops north-west.
They will also try to consolidate gains near Myrnohrad.
In one month, the tree cover will have disapeared, preventing infantry infiltration. The weather may affect drones, which is also important to remember.
Thus, Russia has to reach (and consolidate around) Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka before the winter to assault it.
I finish this thread with the wide preparation of new defensive lines, especially away from Donbass region.
Main new lines :
-Pavlohrad-Novomykholaivka
-Vilniansk-Zaporijia
-3rd Donbass line (behind Kramatorsk)
• • •
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En janvier dernier, alors que nous avions décelé une baisse de la progression russe (données de @Pouletvolant3), l'AFP titrait le contraire : parlant d'une augmentation x2 de la progression russe.
En réalité, cette confiance aveugle dans l'ISW, sans vérification directe a joué un tour à l'AFP.
Le mois de janvier n'avait pas vu une augmentation x2 de la progression russe, à moins que l'on ne considère la vidéo d'un soldat russe, seul, avec un drapeau (mort ou vivant) comme une preuve suffisante de contrôle.
L'Ethiopie 🇪🇹 se rapproche de plus en plus de la guerre civile généralisée
La mobilisation massive de l'armée éthiopienne dans le nord, son retrait de larges zones de l'Amhara⚫️, vers le Tigré 🟡 et les tensions frontalières font craindre un conflit majeur.
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L'Ethiopie, 2ème pays le plus peuplé d'Afrique est très régulièrement surnommée la "Yougoslavie d'Afrique", car elle est en réalité une fédération ethnique.
La lutte de pouvoir qui opposent ces ethnies provoque des conflits meurtriers.
Ces dernières semaines et en particulier ces derniers jours, l'armée éthiopienne (ENDF) a déplacé des dizaines de milliers d'hommes vers le nord du pays.
La région visée, le Tigré était déjà au cœur d'un conflit meurtrier entre 2020 et 2022 qui avait fait 600 000 morts.
Ukrainian fortifications are improving. The main defensive lines (yellow) are meant to protect Ukraine's rear.
Between these main lines, we can find multiple smaller ditches lines are barbed wire lines. This strategy is cutting the frontline :
We now have multiple squares and rectangles between main and secondary lines.
The frontline is literraly cut in pieces, the black ones are the finished/expected ones and the grey the larger ones, behind, that will be later cut in between.
Après plusieurs semaines de contre-attaques, l'armée ukrainienne a repris le contrôle de larges territoires disputés dont ~12 villages dans l'est de l'oblast de Zaporizhia.
L'armée russe 🇷🇺 a été repoussée.
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Profitant de la suspension de Starling à l'armée russe (qui permettait de faire voler les drones russes et de communiquer) et de Telegram, l'armée ukrainienne a lancé une série de contre-attaques locales dans le secteur de Ternuvate et Pokrovsk'e, à l'est de Zaporizhia.
Les ukrainiens ont utilisé d'importants moyens mécanisés, une première depuis plusieurs mois, profitant notamment des mauvaises conditions météorologiques et de la suspension de Starlink qui empêchent les drones de voler.
Ces assauts ont eu lieu à l'ouest du côté de Ternuvate.