Clément Molin Profile picture
Oct 14, 2025 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
For the first time in months, Russia 🇷🇺 launched tanks and armoured vehicles in Ukraine 🇺🇦

2 years after the large scale Avdiivka offensive, russian forces tried to storm the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka area of the frontline, losing around 30 armoured vehicles.

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The main use of tanks, IFV and AFV was during the Avdiivka-Donestk offensive, mainly between october 2023 and may 2024.

Then, it was slowly abandonned. Since the first months of 2025, the use of armoured vehicles nearly disappeared. Image
Why ?

Because Russia was slowly lacking reserves in armoured vehicles and drone warfare was making their use more and more dangerous.

Most of them have been put away from the front during months and endured some changes. Image
Now that the summer is finishing, the roads are getting more and more muddy.

It is thus impossible to do assaults with motorcycles and ladas while assaulting on foots without cover is increasingly dangerous. This is the main reason for this come back.
On these long videos published by ukrainian forces we can see columns of armoured vehicles and tanks assaulting ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk.

For 2 months, russians have had difficulties to reach Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, mainly failing to take strongholds.
One of the assaults was trying to reach Myrnohrad, especially taking control over the mine west of the city, a ukrainian stronghold. They lost 4 vehicles here. Image
Another axis was the Kostiantynivka-Pokrovsk highway. In this area, multiple russian columns have been destroyed in the previous months, one of the only one where they continued to send tanks and armoured vehicles. Image
However, the main assaulted direction is the village of Shakove, a ukrainian stronghold.

Russia launched multiple armoured vehicles, hundreds of soldiers and motorcycles here to break the ukrainian defenses. Shakove is protecting the whole direction. Image
Despite multiple assaults on Volodymyrivka, just south of Shakove, the russians still didn't managed to take it.

Now, it is mainly a grey zone and tens of soldiers have been brought here, they will probably try to gain a strong foothold here and in Shakove. Image
Using armoured vehicles is somewhat new this year, it is also the result of months of reinforcements.

At 0:25 there is an interesting footage. You can see that the ditch forces the BTR to use the road, which has been mined. That's how dtches should be used.
The importance of fortifications : to reach Shakove from the main assault route, they need to stay on this road (because of the 6 anti-tank obstacles).

-> it concentrates the ukrainian fire on a single road. Image
And it's exactly the same with infantry and barbed wire :

They need to walk in the only zones where there are no barbed wire. Here, we can see a recent picture and a 1 month old one (Novotoretsk'e). Image
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What is happening near Pokrovsk ?

The grey zone is increasingly big, it is getting more and more difficult to consolidate any progress. Pokrovsk is still safe, fightings are ongoing in Rodynske and Udachne, while some infiltrations are ongoing in the south of the city. Image
The main objectif for russian forces now is to expand the Dobropilla bridgehead, by taking Shakove. Then, they will be able to connect again with their isolated troops north-west.

They will also try to consolidate gains near Myrnohrad. Image
In one month, the tree cover will have disapeared, preventing infantry infiltration. The weather may affect drones, which is also important to remember.

Thus, Russia has to reach (and consolidate around) Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka before the winter to assault it.
I finish this thread with the wide preparation of new defensive lines, especially away from Donbass region.

Main new lines :

-Pavlohrad-Novomykholaivka
-Vilniansk-Zaporijia
-3rd Donbass line (behind Kramatorsk) Image

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More from @clement_molin

May 3
L'armée ukrainienne 🇺🇦 poursuit la fortification d'au moins 45 villes de différentes tailles pour préparer la défense sur le long terme.

Parmi les grandes villes, Odessa, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Soumy ou Tchernihiv ont été renforcées.

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Commençons au nord, oblast de Tchernihiv. (rouge = tranchées et surtout fossés anti-chats, blanc = barbelés et dents de dragons)

Défenses de Hrodnia + 3 lignes en amont
Défenses en construction à Snovsk et Koriukivka
Défenses de Ripky et Tchernihiv
Défenses de Novhorod-Siverskyï Image
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Oblast de Soumy :

Défenses circulaires de Chotska
Défenses circulaires de Hloukhiv
Défenses circulaires de Putyl et Buryn
Défenses circulaires de Konotop (anciennes) Image
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Read 10 tweets
May 1
I agree with what is being said in this thread. Russia 🇷🇺 has been unable for now to reach Dobropilla, which is a critical town to take before attacking Kramatorsk.

However, recent successes in the Siversk and Kostiantynivka directions may unblock the situation

🧵THREAD🧵1/12⬇️ Image
There is one good reason for the failure to advance to Dobropilla this after the august 2024 breakthrough and it's mainly about terrain and logistics.

Assaulting from the east has been difficult because of a well known "kill zone" and well established ukrainian defenses. Image
Instead, Russia had been assaulting westward of Pokrovsk since the start of the year.

The main reason is to unblock the agglomeration's hub position. They had lately some successes and continue to push further. Image
Read 12 tweets
Apr 30
Le début d'année 2026 n'est pas très bon pour l'armée russe 🇷🇺 qui accumule les revers.

Si la traditionnelle offensive de printemps n'a pas encore commencé, les forces russes ont laissé beaucoup de temps aux ukrainiens pour se fortifier.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️ Image
La progression russe n'est pas vraiment le facteur le plus important, puisqu'elle suit les saisons, augmentation au printemps et baisse à l'automne.

Mais cette année, on remarque quand même des chiffres faibles pour les 4 derniers mois et pour 15 000 attaques sur 3 mois ! Image
L'année dernière, l'armée russe avait beaucoup de territoires peu défendus, sans grands obstacles et sans grandes villes à prendre, résultats des petites percées de 2024.

Cela lui donnait la possibilité d'avancer continuellement. Image
Read 20 tweets
Apr 29
This month of April alone, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched 450 (!) successful strikes on Russia 🇷🇺 and occupied territories.

Among those are part of the nearly 600 mid-range strikes with FP-1 and FP-2 drones into occupied territories since the year started.

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On this second map, you can see all those mid-range strikes into occupied territories since the year started (most are after march 2026).

In total, around 600 geolocated strikes have been confirmed, hitting various targets in the region. Image
Among those strikes, we now have 34 air-defense systems hit (which does not mean destroyed), 29 radars, or 32 trucks, mainly by long range FPV. Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 27
3 jours après une triple offensive du JNIM et du FLA contre l'armée malienne 🇲🇱 et l'Afrika Corps russe 🇷🇺, le point sur la situation :

Le Front de Libération de l'Azawad a levé ce matin son drapeau sur Kidal, marquant une retentissante victoire.

🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️ Image
Alors que les rebelles touaregs du Front de Libération de l'Azawad (FLA) levaient leur drapeau sur Kidal, russe de l'AC et une partie des maliens (FAMA) étaient escortés par le groupe terroriste JNIM (groupe de soutien à l'Islam et aux Musulmans) en dehors de la ville.
Le 14 novembre 2023, deux semaines après le départ de la MONUSCO de Kidal, les FAMA et Wagner aveint relancé la guerre contre les touareg (malgré les accords de paix d'Alger), s'emparant de la ville.

Depuis, les FAMA et Wagner maintenaient une série d'avant postes dans le nord. Image
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Read 27 tweets
Apr 26
La Russie 🇷🇺 c'est vraiment le pire allié possible à avoir...

Quand tout va bien ils sont là, montrant une fausse protection, mais quand vous en avez besoin, ils sont nulle part.

Arménie 2020, Syrie 2024, Venezuela 2026, Iran 2026, Hongrie 2026 et désormais le Sahel. ⬇️ Image
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Ce que beaucoup de leaders ne comprennent pas, c'est que Moscou se fiche de protéger un homme, ils protègent leur influence (parfois même en négociant directement avec leur ennemi, comme avec l'Azerbaïdjan, HTS ou le JNIM).
En Afrique, l'influence russe est en réalité assez faible. Ils tentent surtout de contrer l'influence occidentale.

Les investissements en Afrique ne sont pas russes, ils sont chinois, émiratis, turcs... les russes sont là que pour la propagande et une apparente sécurité.
Read 7 tweets

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