Clément Molin Profile picture
Oct 14, 2025 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
For the first time in months, Russia 🇷🇺 launched tanks and armoured vehicles in Ukraine 🇺🇦

2 years after the large scale Avdiivka offensive, russian forces tried to storm the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka area of the frontline, losing around 30 armoured vehicles.

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The main use of tanks, IFV and AFV was during the Avdiivka-Donestk offensive, mainly between october 2023 and may 2024.

Then, it was slowly abandonned. Since the first months of 2025, the use of armoured vehicles nearly disappeared. Image
Why ?

Because Russia was slowly lacking reserves in armoured vehicles and drone warfare was making their use more and more dangerous.

Most of them have been put away from the front during months and endured some changes. Image
Now that the summer is finishing, the roads are getting more and more muddy.

It is thus impossible to do assaults with motorcycles and ladas while assaulting on foots without cover is increasingly dangerous. This is the main reason for this come back.
On these long videos published by ukrainian forces we can see columns of armoured vehicles and tanks assaulting ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk.

For 2 months, russians have had difficulties to reach Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, mainly failing to take strongholds.
One of the assaults was trying to reach Myrnohrad, especially taking control over the mine west of the city, a ukrainian stronghold. They lost 4 vehicles here. Image
Another axis was the Kostiantynivka-Pokrovsk highway. In this area, multiple russian columns have been destroyed in the previous months, one of the only one where they continued to send tanks and armoured vehicles. Image
However, the main assaulted direction is the village of Shakove, a ukrainian stronghold.

Russia launched multiple armoured vehicles, hundreds of soldiers and motorcycles here to break the ukrainian defenses. Shakove is protecting the whole direction. Image
Despite multiple assaults on Volodymyrivka, just south of Shakove, the russians still didn't managed to take it.

Now, it is mainly a grey zone and tens of soldiers have been brought here, they will probably try to gain a strong foothold here and in Shakove. Image
Using armoured vehicles is somewhat new this year, it is also the result of months of reinforcements.

At 0:25 there is an interesting footage. You can see that the ditch forces the BTR to use the road, which has been mined. That's how dtches should be used.
The importance of fortifications : to reach Shakove from the main assault route, they need to stay on this road (because of the 6 anti-tank obstacles).

-> it concentrates the ukrainian fire on a single road. Image
And it's exactly the same with infantry and barbed wire :

They need to walk in the only zones where there are no barbed wire. Here, we can see a recent picture and a 1 month old one (Novotoretsk'e). Image
Image
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What is happening near Pokrovsk ?

The grey zone is increasingly big, it is getting more and more difficult to consolidate any progress. Pokrovsk is still safe, fightings are ongoing in Rodynske and Udachne, while some infiltrations are ongoing in the south of the city. Image
The main objectif for russian forces now is to expand the Dobropilla bridgehead, by taking Shakove. Then, they will be able to connect again with their isolated troops north-west.

They will also try to consolidate gains near Myrnohrad. Image
In one month, the tree cover will have disapeared, preventing infantry infiltration. The weather may affect drones, which is also important to remember.

Thus, Russia has to reach (and consolidate around) Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka before the winter to assault it.
I finish this thread with the wide preparation of new defensive lines, especially away from Donbass region.

Main new lines :

-Pavlohrad-Novomykholaivka
-Vilniansk-Zaporijia
-3rd Donbass line (behind Kramatorsk) Image

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More from @clement_molin

Apr 13
Avec "seulement" 53% des votes, Magyar emporte 70% (!) des sièges à l'Assemblée hongroise 🇭🇺.

C'est dire à quel point les réformes électorales d'Orban se sont retournées contre lui.

Les 199 députés sont anti-immigration, nationalistes et de droite, chose à garder à l'esprit. ⬇️ Image
Ce que beaucoup refusent de comprendre, c'est que Magyar n'est pas une rupture par rapport à Orban. On passe juste d'un candidat national-souverainiste à un candidat national-libéral/pro-européen.

Magyar était pendant 22 ans au Fidesz, qu'il n'a quitté qu'en 2024 ! Image
Ces élections montrent que la priorité absolue est le pouvoir d'achat (la dévaluation continue du Forint, et la stagnation économique comparément aux voisins est un mauvais signal).

Pour autant, la question européenne reste centrale, surtout chez les jeunes. Image
Read 10 tweets
Apr 13
The USA 🇺🇸 announced yesterday that it would impose a blockade on Iran 🇮🇷, thus reinforcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait's importance is global, and some key figures are often forgotten when considering the consequences on global economy :

🧵THREAD🧵1/8⬇️ Image
25% of the oil exportations are going through Hormuz.

-80% of those are going to Asia (mainly China, India, South Korea and Japan)
-Saudi Arabia (1st), Iraq (3rd), UAE (5th), Kuwait (7th) are highly dependant on the strait Image
25% of the gas exportations are going through Hormuz

-Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iran are exporting gas, which is going through Hormuz. Qatar is the 3rd world exporter. Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 12
Peter Magyar peut-il battre Viktor Orban à la tête de la Hongrie 🇭🇺 depuis 16 ans ?

Avec une participation déjà record de 74.23 % à 17h, le scrutin apparait fortement indécis. Les résultats arriveront entre 19h et minuit.

Suivez les avec moi en direct ici :

🧵THREAD🧵1/X⬇️ Image
Le système électoral hongrois est composé de 199 députés, dont 93 élus à la proportionnelle (favorable à Magyar et au Tisza).

Les 106 autres sièges sont élus dans les circonscriptions locales, redécoupées en faveur d'Orban.

2/X Image
En 2022, Le Fidesz d'Orban l'avait largement emporté dans la grande majorité des circonscriptions du pays, à part à Budapest, Pecs, Szeged et dans les élections proportionnelles.

3/X Image
Read 19 tweets
Apr 9
Zelensky is right on this one, Ukraine 🇺🇦 has no interest in giving away the remaining part of Donbas

This area is the most fortified of Ukraine, there are some of the last big cities, 200 000 inhabitants and losing it would open the path for Kharkiv or Dnipro.

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Here is a map showing all the barbed wire protecting cities, towns and villages from infiltration. Going though will be costly, and this is in Donbas. Image
The main city is Kramatorsk, but there are also additionnal cities such as Sloviansk or Dobropilla.

These cities are highly fortified, but there is also heavy industry, power plants and mines. Ukraine has no interest leaving the area. Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 8
L'opération israélo-américaine en Iran est-elle un échec ?

❌Le régime n'a pas été renversé
❌Le détroit d'Ormuz a été fermé
❌Les programmes balistiques et nucléaires n'ont pas été détruits
✅L'Iran a été affaiblie
✅Le volet militaire s'est plutôt bien déroulé

🧵THREAD🧵⬇️ Image
🔸L'objectif américain : le flou

L'objectif initial, martelé à de nombreuses reprises par Trump était de renverser le régime en détruisant les gardiens de la révolution et les moyens répressifs pour permettre une prise de pouvoir par la population.

Deux objectifs secondaires suivaient, celui de détruire le programme nucléaire et le programme balistique de l'Iran.

Pourtant, après le début de la guerre, le flou entretenu par un président américain utilisant ses propres déclarations pour parier de l'argent sur les marchés est resté total. L'objectif de rouvrir le détroit d'Ormuz ne figurait pas parmi les objectifs initiaux, et pourtant, c'était celui dominant dès la 2ème semaine des opérations.Image
🔸La stratégie iranienne :

L'Iran, qui s'y préparait depuis des décennies était très bien préparée (qui l'eut cru !). Frapper Israël n'avait pas d'intérêt, défendre l'espace aérien était impossible.

L'Iran a plutôt fait tout pour répandre la guerre le plus possible, en touchant avant tout les moyens de production économique (pétrole, gaz, tourisme, espaces aériens, industries) du Golfe (dont le détroit d'Ormuz) et les bases américaines.

Beaucoup annonçaient la mort de l'axe de résistance, bien que durement frappé, celui-ci est toujours là : les milices chiites d'Irak ont été très actives contre les bases américaines dans le pays, le Hezbollah a rejoins la guerre contre Israël et les Houthis du Yémen ont suffisamment menacés d'entrer en guerre, de fermer le détroit de Bab el Mandeb et de frapper les ports saoudiens occidentaux pour empêcher les Etats du Golfe d'entrer dans la guerre contre l'Iran.

En parallèle, l'Iran a bien camouflé ses lanceurs de missiles et de drones, permettant un lancement régulier (100 drones et 50 missiles par jours). L'enjeu est désormais de déterrer les milliers de lanceurs coincés dans les bases souterraines pour remplacer ceux perdus en surface.Image
Read 11 tweets
Apr 8
Overnight, Ukraine 🇺🇦 conducted yet another long range strike targeting russian 🇷🇺 assets in southern occupied Ukraine (total = + 400 strikes now !)

For you, I gathered here 20 different databases to better understand the russian invasion of Ukraine :

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🔸Weekly russian progression since october 2023

Based on @Pouletvolant3 weekly updates, I gathered all those since Russia took the initiative, per week.

You can see two years and half of russian offensive in Ukraine, with a recent decrease. Image
🔸Monthly russian progression since october 2023

Based on @Pouletvolant3 monthly updates, I gathered all those since Russia took the initiative, per month.

You can see a traditionnal decrease in winter, with this one more important than usual. Image
Read 24 tweets

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