Clément Molin Profile picture
Oct 14 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
For the first time in months, Russia 🇷🇺 launched tanks and armoured vehicles in Ukraine 🇺🇦

2 years after the large scale Avdiivka offensive, russian forces tried to storm the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka area of the frontline, losing around 30 armoured vehicles.

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The main use of tanks, IFV and AFV was during the Avdiivka-Donestk offensive, mainly between october 2023 and may 2024.

Then, it was slowly abandonned. Since the first months of 2025, the use of armoured vehicles nearly disappeared. Image
Why ?

Because Russia was slowly lacking reserves in armoured vehicles and drone warfare was making their use more and more dangerous.

Most of them have been put away from the front during months and endured some changes. Image
Now that the summer is finishing, the roads are getting more and more muddy.

It is thus impossible to do assaults with motorcycles and ladas while assaulting on foots without cover is increasingly dangerous. This is the main reason for this come back.
On these long videos published by ukrainian forces we can see columns of armoured vehicles and tanks assaulting ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk.

For 2 months, russians have had difficulties to reach Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, mainly failing to take strongholds.
One of the assaults was trying to reach Myrnohrad, especially taking control over the mine west of the city, a ukrainian stronghold. They lost 4 vehicles here. Image
Another axis was the Kostiantynivka-Pokrovsk highway. In this area, multiple russian columns have been destroyed in the previous months, one of the only one where they continued to send tanks and armoured vehicles. Image
However, the main assaulted direction is the village of Shakove, a ukrainian stronghold.

Russia launched multiple armoured vehicles, hundreds of soldiers and motorcycles here to break the ukrainian defenses. Shakove is protecting the whole direction. Image
Despite multiple assaults on Volodymyrivka, just south of Shakove, the russians still didn't managed to take it.

Now, it is mainly a grey zone and tens of soldiers have been brought here, they will probably try to gain a strong foothold here and in Shakove. Image
Using armoured vehicles is somewhat new this year, it is also the result of months of reinforcements.

At 0:25 there is an interesting footage. You can see that the ditch forces the BTR to use the road, which has been mined. That's how dtches should be used.
The importance of fortifications : to reach Shakove from the main assault route, they need to stay on this road (because of the 6 anti-tank obstacles).

-> it concentrates the ukrainian fire on a single road. Image
And it's exactly the same with infantry and barbed wire :

They need to walk in the only zones where there are no barbed wire. Here, we can see a recent picture and a 1 month old one (Novotoretsk'e). Image
Image
Image
What is happening near Pokrovsk ?

The grey zone is increasingly big, it is getting more and more difficult to consolidate any progress. Pokrovsk is still safe, fightings are ongoing in Rodynske and Udachne, while some infiltrations are ongoing in the south of the city. Image
The main objectif for russian forces now is to expand the Dobropilla bridgehead, by taking Shakove. Then, they will be able to connect again with their isolated troops north-west.

They will also try to consolidate gains near Myrnohrad. Image
In one month, the tree cover will have disapeared, preventing infantry infiltration. The weather may affect drones, which is also important to remember.

Thus, Russia has to reach (and consolidate around) Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka before the winter to assault it.
I finish this thread with the wide preparation of new defensive lines, especially away from Donbass region.

Main new lines :

-Pavlohrad-Novomykholaivka
-Vilniansk-Zaporijia
-3rd Donbass line (behind Kramatorsk) Image

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More from @clement_molin

Dec 23
The NEW DONBAS LINE, a massive ukrainian 🇺🇦 fortification program

This year, Ukraine built important fortifications that may be able to stop or slow down russian 🇷🇺 forces. Visible from space, these fortifications have already proven useful.

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This weekend, Ukraine published this video showcasing their new defensive line.

For the first time, they officially showed the results of months of digging effort. This video shows the most advanced defensive line, with only two holes in 16km !
This line is new because it is not only anti-tank or anti-infantry obstacles, but all of them at the same time.

We can count 21 barbed wires rows (4 lines and 3 lines at the bottom of ditches), 3 dragon teeths rows and 3 rows of anti-tank ditches. Image
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Après avoir perpétré le génocide contre les tutsis (et les hutus modérés) en 1994 (800k à 1 million de morts), les Forces Armées du Rwanda et les génocidaires interahamwe ont pris la fuite avec 2 millions de Hutus vers le Zaïre. Image
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This year, I've closely followed russian airstrike campaign.

In Sumy, I mapped around 4 000 strikes. With recent satellite images of a small 153 km2, I found 1641 airstrikes impact !

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I found very recent sattelite images from May or June 2025.

What they are showing is really crazy. Multiple airstrikes impacts and wiped out villages, it helps to understand russian strategy. Image
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1641, it's 10.7 per km2 ! Image
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Le principal Etat impliqué est le Rwanda. Mais pourquoi est-il en guerre dans l'est du Congo ?

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