Clément Molin Profile picture
Oct 14, 2025 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
For the first time in months, Russia 🇷🇺 launched tanks and armoured vehicles in Ukraine 🇺🇦

2 years after the large scale Avdiivka offensive, russian forces tried to storm the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka area of the frontline, losing around 30 armoured vehicles.

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The main use of tanks, IFV and AFV was during the Avdiivka-Donestk offensive, mainly between october 2023 and may 2024.

Then, it was slowly abandonned. Since the first months of 2025, the use of armoured vehicles nearly disappeared. Image
Why ?

Because Russia was slowly lacking reserves in armoured vehicles and drone warfare was making their use more and more dangerous.

Most of them have been put away from the front during months and endured some changes. Image
Now that the summer is finishing, the roads are getting more and more muddy.

It is thus impossible to do assaults with motorcycles and ladas while assaulting on foots without cover is increasingly dangerous. This is the main reason for this come back.
On these long videos published by ukrainian forces we can see columns of armoured vehicles and tanks assaulting ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk.

For 2 months, russians have had difficulties to reach Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, mainly failing to take strongholds.
One of the assaults was trying to reach Myrnohrad, especially taking control over the mine west of the city, a ukrainian stronghold. They lost 4 vehicles here. Image
Another axis was the Kostiantynivka-Pokrovsk highway. In this area, multiple russian columns have been destroyed in the previous months, one of the only one where they continued to send tanks and armoured vehicles. Image
However, the main assaulted direction is the village of Shakove, a ukrainian stronghold.

Russia launched multiple armoured vehicles, hundreds of soldiers and motorcycles here to break the ukrainian defenses. Shakove is protecting the whole direction. Image
Despite multiple assaults on Volodymyrivka, just south of Shakove, the russians still didn't managed to take it.

Now, it is mainly a grey zone and tens of soldiers have been brought here, they will probably try to gain a strong foothold here and in Shakove. Image
Using armoured vehicles is somewhat new this year, it is also the result of months of reinforcements.

At 0:25 there is an interesting footage. You can see that the ditch forces the BTR to use the road, which has been mined. That's how dtches should be used.
The importance of fortifications : to reach Shakove from the main assault route, they need to stay on this road (because of the 6 anti-tank obstacles).

-> it concentrates the ukrainian fire on a single road. Image
And it's exactly the same with infantry and barbed wire :

They need to walk in the only zones where there are no barbed wire. Here, we can see a recent picture and a 1 month old one (Novotoretsk'e). Image
Image
Image
What is happening near Pokrovsk ?

The grey zone is increasingly big, it is getting more and more difficult to consolidate any progress. Pokrovsk is still safe, fightings are ongoing in Rodynske and Udachne, while some infiltrations are ongoing in the south of the city. Image
The main objectif for russian forces now is to expand the Dobropilla bridgehead, by taking Shakove. Then, they will be able to connect again with their isolated troops north-west.

They will also try to consolidate gains near Myrnohrad. Image
In one month, the tree cover will have disapeared, preventing infantry infiltration. The weather may affect drones, which is also important to remember.

Thus, Russia has to reach (and consolidate around) Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka before the winter to assault it.
I finish this thread with the wide preparation of new defensive lines, especially away from Donbass region.

Main new lines :

-Pavlohrad-Novomykholaivka
-Vilniansk-Zaporijia
-3rd Donbass line (behind Kramatorsk) Image

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More from @clement_molin

Jul 25
Who controls Kostiantynivka 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 ?

There is a very big debate to know who really controls the city of Kostiantynivka, in the Donbas region.

Many maps are showing the city as Russian controled, which in my opinion is not true, as I will explain it here.

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I gathered geolocations for the last 40 days in the city, from @UAControlMap, mainly done by @AudaxonX.

Those geolocations show flag videos, air, artillery and drone strikes as well as assault videos.

3 things you should know :

🔸We only see 5% maximum of the real situation on videos, those are known positions at a given moment, which is nowhere close to the reality on the ground.
🔸There is an important image assymetry. Russia is posting more videos of flags and few strikes while Ukraine doesn't publish flag videos but publish much more strikes. Thus, I have 146 places where Russian are confirmed present, against 94 Ukrainian. This doesn't mean there are more Russians than Ukraine, Russia published 70 videos of flags !
🔸On the map, we have plenty of areas undereported, with few Ukrainian positions when we know there are many or few Russian positions when we know there are many.Image
According to my observations, the situation is a 70/90 :

Ukrainian troops are present in 70% of the city while Russian troops are present in 90% of the city.

According to my informations, there are still more Ukrainians than Russians in the city, but the situation continues to worsen.
Read 16 tweets
Jul 25
For the first time in months, Russia 🇷🇺 launched a large mechanized assault in the Dobropilla-Drujkivka area

Two armoured columns reinforced by multiple unarmoured vehicles from the 90th tank division and the 41st/8th CAA attempted to breakthrough in the Shakove area.

As you can see in the quoted tweet, this area has been subjected to heavy airstrike campaign for more than one month, while it remained a secondary direction until may. You can see here in white the recent airstrikes impacts in this direction, the same one where Russia obtained a breakthrough last year. Azov 1st Corps, which has been successfully defending the area for nearly a year managed to prevent any armoured breakthrough, showing multiple destroyed vehicles and pontoon bridges. However, infiltrations are slowly getting more frequent and Russian soldiers are often recorded behind the current grey zone, despite the absence of visual proof. As you can see, Russian armies in this direction are not doing too much PR videos with flags, which is why we have fewer flag videos. This area is right now the most strategic of the Donbas, Russia absolutely needs to control it to be able to reach Dobropilla or Drujkivka to have a fire control over the roads leading to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Why did Russia launch a mechanized assault here ? The main reason is how difficult it is to get there. We've recently seen videos of an impressive number of logistical and assault unarmoured vehicles destroyed on roads leading to here. This area is one of the deadliest, with older Ukrainian fortifications complicating any movement. Launching a mechanized assault helps to bring hundreds of men close to the front (even if 150 die and 150 manage to reach those positions, all of them will be able to assault and infiltrate further in the coming weeks).

As I said a month ago, I was expecting a large scale assault here, in order to unblock the front leading to Drujkivka and Dobropilla. As Russian soldiers are infiltrating and consolidating into Kosiantynivka, they will slowly manage to take full control over the city (maybe until autumn, the same way it happened in Toretsk), now the priority for them is to prepare the next battle, for Drujkivka.Image
Videos of the repelled assault : x.com/azov_media/sta…
x.com/moklasen/statu…
About the destroyed vehicles in this area :
Read 4 tweets
Jul 23
Ukraine's 🇺🇦 mid-range strike campaign against Russian 🇷🇺 logistics continues, with more than 1 350 strikes on trucks and vehicles since early may

Railways, air-defense systems and energy infrastructure is also being hit on a daily basis.

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Yesterday, @414magyarbirds posted an update about strikes on the key R-280 highway, so called "Novorossia" road between Rostov and Crimea.

On this road alone, I have around 175 geolocalized trucks and vehicles hit since early may.
It is highly likely that the number of trucks and vehicles hit by Ukrainian drones this month will be higher than the previous one, especially since video compilations are much more centralised by the USF.

We should expect a large number of videos for the end of the month. Image
Read 16 tweets
Jul 11
In recent weeks, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched a large number of strikes against electricity infrastructure in Crimea

Since 2026 started, both Ukraine and Russia 🇷🇺 launched continuous strikes against each other energy infrastructure.

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Recently, most of Crimea has been without power after a large number of Ukrainian strikes (source : @georgewbarros).

You can see here that most of the peninsula was lacking electricity, including large cities.
In total, around 37 electric substations have been hit, together with oil and gas infrastructure.

This has drastic consequences on both civilian and military infrastructure of the peninsula.
Read 10 tweets
Jul 8
During the first week of July, Ukraine 🇺🇦 continued to target Russian 🇷🇺 trucks and logistics, hitting more than 240 vehicles, 34 per day.

Despite fewer coverage, these strikes continue to be a very big problem for Russian forces across occupied territories.

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The number of strikes continue to increase, with nearly 600 trucks and vehicles hit in june 2026 (around 20 per day) and already 240 for the 1st week of july (34 per day).

All these strikes are only the confirmed ones from ukrainian videos, I do not count videos from the ground. Image
Today, the Ukrainian army of drones () published a compilation of nearly 200 strikes on trucks and vehicles near Crimea.

This video covers multiple units work for the 1st week of July. The good point ? Everything is proven. t.me/robert_magyar/…
Read 8 tweets
Jul 3
Let's dive in Russian 🇷🇺 war propaganda machine

Recently, new videos emerged of Russian soldiers showing their flag far behind the frontline.

What is important about that is the aim of these operations : to show to the Russian command.

1/9 ⬇️ Image
Russian flag videos are almost always the same. One or two Russian soldiers walk along the front line for weeks, evading Ukrainian detection.

Upon reaching the rear, they spend a day wandering through an entire village with their flag, while a drone overhead films them. Image
They are often not armed and will stay in the village for a long time, hidden in a basement, most of the time being found and captured/killed and sometimes go back to their lines.

These soldiers are not meant to disrupt Ukrainian rear but to create the illusion Russia controls an area.
Read 9 tweets

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