Why are leading institutions so biased against fossil fuels?
Because their operating “anti-impact framework” causes them to view fossil fuels, which are inherently high impact, as intrinsically immoral and inevitably self-destructive.
A summary of Fossil Future, Chapter 3 🧵👇
An Anti-Human Moral Goal and Standard
Our knowledge system’s opposition to fossil fuels while ignoring their enormous benefits can only be explained by it operating on an anti-human moral goal and standard of evaluation that regards benefits to human life as morally unimportant.
Outside the realm of energy, an example of an anti-human moral goal at work is the scientists who, operating on the anti-human moral goal of animal equality, oppose animal testing for medical research and disregard its life-saving benefits to humans.
Eliminating Human Impact
The primary moral goal of our knowledge system that operates on energy issues is the anti-human goal of eliminating human impact on the rest of nature—a widely-held goal that is often disguised as merely eliminating only human-harming impacts.
Our leading institutions attempt to disguise their goal of eliminating all human impacts as eliminating only human-harming impacts by using vague terminology such as “going green,” “minimizing environmental impact,” “protecting the environment,” and “saving the planet.”
How Our Knowledge System’s Anti-Impact Goal Drives it to Oppose Cost-Effective Energy
The goal of eliminating human impact necessarily drives our knowledge system’s opposition to cost-effective energy because cost-effective energy always significantly impacts nature.
On the Goal of Eliminating Human Impact, the Significant Impacts of Cost-Effective Energy’s Development Are Immoral and in Need of Elimination
All forms of energy involve developing nature in a significant way and thus all get opposition for this supposedly immoral impact.
On the goal of eliminating human impact, even (and in some ways especially) supposedly beloved solar and wind get opposition because they, like all forms of energy, involve developing nature.
Our leading institutions don't usually lead this opposition, but they sanction it.
On the Goal of Eliminating Human Impact, the Significant Impacts of Cost-Effective Energy’s Side-Effects Are Immoral and in Need of Elimination
All forms of energy involve side-effects that significantly impact nature and therefore attract deep moral opposition.
The goal of eliminating human impact drives the aggressive effort to eliminate the side-effects of nuclear energy, radiation, and waste, by eliminating nuclear energy itself—even though nuclear’s side-effects are the most masterable (and therefore safe) of any source of energy.
How Our Knowledge System’s Anti-Impact Goal Drives it to Ignore the Benefits of Cost-Effective Energy
Our knowledge system ignores the benefits of cost-effective energy because on the anti-human standard, it is intrinsically immoral and its benefits are morally irrelevant.
How Our Knowledge System’s Anti-Impact “Delicate Nurturer” Assumption Drives it to Catastrophize the Side-Effects of Cost-Effective Energy
Our knowledge system catastrophizes the negative side-effects of cost-effective energy because it views Earth as a "delicate nurturer."
On the “delicate nurturer” assumption, Earth naturally exists in a delicate, nurturing balance, with humans as “parasite-polluters” whose impact can only destroy it—which means the high-impact phenomenon of cost-effective energy will inevitably lead to catastrophe or apocalypse.
Replacing the Anti-Impact Framework with the Human Flourishing Framework
The “anti-impact framework” must be replaced by the “human flourishing framework,” including the goal of advancing human flourishing, the “wild potential” premise, and the full-context evaluation method.
The Goal: Human Flourishing
On the human flourishing framework, the primary moral goal, and therefore standard of evaluation, is advancing human flourishing—a goal by which our knowledge system’s goal of eliminating human impact is immoral.
Pro-Human Environmental Terminology
On the human flourishing framework, we don’t use the vague and covertly anti-human terminology of “saving/protecting” “the environment/planet” (from human beings) but rather “improving” “our environment/world” (for human beings).
On the human flourishing framework, rather than evaluating only man-made actions by their level of impact on nature, we evaluate both man-made and non-man-made environmental factors by how conducive they are to human flourishing.
The Wild Potential Premise
On the human flourishing framework, the relationship between human beings and the rest of nature is “wild potential”: Earth is naturally dynamic, deficient, and dangerous, and the human beings who impact it are fundamentally “producer-improvers.”
Full-Context Evaluation
On the human flourishing framework, we engage in full-context evaluation, which means carefully weighing the benefits and side-effects of different alternatives in relation to human flourishing.
The Human Flourishing Framework vs. the Anti-Impact Framework on CO2 Emissions
On the issue of fossil fuels' CO2 emissions, the human flourishing framework evaluates them in the context of all their benefits, while the anti-impact framework views them as intrinsically immoral.
My Project
The project of Fossil Future is to achieve a pro-human, full-context evaluation of what to do about fossil fuels by using the human flourishing framework to synthesize the best research about fossil fuels' benefits and side-effects.
Coming next week: A summary of Chapter 4 of Fossil Future, "Our Unnaturally Livable Fossil-Fueled World."
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If you ever hear anyone favorably compare solar and wind to coal, gas, or nuclear by citing a low LCOE—"Levelized Cost of Energy"—you are being scammed.
LCOE explicitly ignores "reliability-related considerations" and is therefore a garbage metric. 🧵👇
You've heard it over and over: "Solar and wind are now cheaper than fossil fuels."
You might suspect something is wrong here, because if solar/wind were so cheap their developers wouldn't always be asking for subsidies, or claim the sky is falling when subsidies are taken away.
The suspicious claim that "Solar and wind are now cheaper than fossil fuels" is usually justified using an intimidating-sounding metric called LCOE: "Levelized Cost of Energy."
LCOE is used all the time in prestigious publications and in government.
Our “knowledge system”—the people and institutions we rely upon to research, synthesize, disseminate, and evaluate expert knowledge—consistently ignores the massive, life-or-death benefits of fossil fuels.
A summary of Fossil Future, Chapter 1 🧵👇
Save the World With…Fossil Fuels?
I am going to try to persuade you of something that might seem impossible: that one of the best things you can do to make the world a better place is to fight for more fossil fuel use—more use of oil, coal, and natural gas.
Questioning the “Expert” Moral Case for Eliminating Fossil Fuels
We're told rapidly eliminating fossil fuels is the expert consensus, but consider: 1) sometimes the alleged “expert” view is wrong, and 2) eliminating fossil fuels is a radical and potentially disastrous change.
The Senate bill *looks like* it has a 2027 "placed in service" cutoff for new solar/wind subsidies.
But one last-minute paragraph makes it worthless—because projects making a recoverable 5% investment in the next 12 months are exempt!
The idea of a 2027 "placed in service" cutoff was that new subsidies would actually end during the Trump administration.
But under the last-minute carveout, Big Green has 12 months to initiate as many subsidized projects as it wants using the insanely-easy-to-meet "construction" threshold. (All you need to do is commit 5% of expected project cost to buying re-sellable assets like solar panels.)
Once they declare "construction"—e.g., in July 2026—they'll have 4 years (e.g., July 2030) to "place in service." And then some of those projects, e.g., most wind projects, will get 10 years of subsidies.
So we'll still have wind subsidies on Donald Trump's 94th birthday!
Here's how much worse the Senate bill just got:
* Two days ago: "Placed in service" by 12-31-27—with new subsidized solar/wind projects stopping very quickly, and Trump being able to let subsidies truly end.
* Today: "Placed in service" by JULY 2030—with new subsidized solar/wind projects absolutely spamming the rid and ripping off taxpayers like never before, and Trump having no control over whether the subsidies end.
The current Senate bill is arguably worse than the original Senate Finance one. At least that bill decreased solar/wind subsidies starting in 2026 to 60%. The current bill just increased them to 100%.
The current bill is a solar/wind lobbyist's dream. It does not terminate the Green New Scam in any way, shape or form. It absolutely perpetuates it. And offensively so, I might add, by keeping the "placed in service" cutoff language so many people courageously fought for, then totally undoing it with a single last-minute paragraph that makes it worthless.
If the Senate wanted to extend the Green New Scam it should have said so, not insulted our intelligence by trying to bury the extension in one sneaky little paragraph.
PS Several Senators have already told me they didn't know about or understand this last-minute paragraph. If that's the case they should do whatever they can to fix the situation.
And just to be clear, NOTHING good will come out of extending the Green New Scam.
More on how a "construction" cutoff—e.g., the Senate's new "construction" by July 2026 "cutoff"—is not a cutoff but an extension.
Lobbyists love “construction” by a certain “cutoff” because they get 4 more bonus years of eligibility: a 4-year "safe harbor."
E.g., a solar/wind developer can just put a small amount of money down (5%, most of it recoverable) and it gets 4 more years to cash in the subsidy.
With the earlier Senate 2027 “placed in service” cutoff—no exceptions—new subsidized solar/wind projects would slow to a crawl by early 2026. And President Trump could ensure that subsidies would terminate during his term.
But under the final Senate bill's exemption for projects in "construction" by July 2026—which TOTALLY EXEMPTS PROJECTS FROM "PLACED IN SERVICE" BY 2027—these new unreliable projects will spam our grid at least through 2030 (4 years after the "construction" pseudo-cutoff).
Using the 10-year PTC (Production Tax Credit) subsidy, wind farms will still be collecting subsidies on President Trump’s 94th birthday in 2040!
This disaster for our grid and our budget is unfortunately the best-case scenario for the Senate bill.
Realistically, by extending eligibility for new subsidies well beyond President Trump’s term, the proposal makes it likely that future administrations and Congresses will extend solar and wind subsidies yet again—just as previous ones have done for over 30 years!
Here is a refutation of every lobbyist lie that more solar/wind subsidies are good for electricity.
FACT: SUBSIDIES HAVE PROVABLY REDUCED CAPACITY + RELIABILITY—AND INCREASED PRICES.
More subsidies can only make things worse.
Vote against extending them!
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Senators are deluged by lobbyists who say solar/wind subsidies have been great for America—and that the Senate needs to pass @joniernst's amendment to extend them.
But the Administration's top experts know the truth: these subsidies are a disaster the Senate needs to terminate.
@SecretaryWright @SecretaryBurgum Chris Wright, Secretary of Energy, this year called IRA solar and wind subsidies “lunacy,” “a big mistake,” and “political posturing that results in higher costs and less reliable electricity.”
Republicans ran on a pledge to "terminate" the trillion-dollar Inflation Reduction Act subsidies, aka "the Green New Scam."
But their proposed budget keeps almost all the subsidies, while falsely claiming to save money through easily-reversed “phaseouts” starting in 4 years!
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If you’re just joining the conversation about the IRA subsidies, here’s what you need to know: they are subsidies for inferior forms of energy that cost a fortune, raise energy costs, and make our grid unreliable—especially the solar/wind subsidies.