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Sravan Kundojjala Profile picture
@SKundojjala
Oct 15 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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ASML 3Q25
- Revenue down -2% q/q & up 1% y/y to €7.52B (below mid pt guidance); CY25 on track for 15% growth
- Implied CY26 will be flat to up; €32-€33B backlog exiting 3Q25; Near 100% coverage for CY26 (at flat growth)
- Net bookings down -3% q/q but up 103% y/y to €5.4B; EUV booking up 57% q/q; DUV down -44%; Memory up 186% q/qImage
- EUV revenue down -21% q/q while DUV up 15%
- EUV ASP down -4% q/q to €235M
- EUV system shipments down by 2 to 11
- 1 HNA rev rec in 3Q25
- Non-China DUV up 34% q/q Image
- 51.6% GM vs 50-52% guidance, likely driven by higher mix of 3800;
- 4Q25 revenue will grow 26% q/q & 3% y/y to €9.5B (mid pt); GM: 51-53%
- CY25: €32.5B rev (mid-pt of guidance) at >52% GM; CY26 will be flat to up; trends looking positive
- CY30 guidance of €44-€60B at 56-60% GM remains intactImage
- China up 54% q/q after 3 quarters of -ve growth; But China will decelerate in 2026;
- Taiwan and Korea down q/q; US down -40% q/q; Japan down -80% q/q Image
- Leading-edge logic a key driver in CY25; Memory strong too; CY26 to be driven by EUV with China DUV dragging down overall DUV
- ASML's logic revenue down -6% q/q while memory up 10%; its primary customer TSMC's revenue grew 10% q/q Image

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More from @SKundojjala

Sravan Kundojjala Profile picture
Jul 17
TSMC 2Q25; Beats the high-end of rev guidance, despite FX impact, GM close to high-end of the guidance and OPM > high-end guidance.
2Q25 vs 2Q24
Revenue: $30.070B (+44%)
Gross Margin: 58.6% (53.2%)
Operating Margin: 49.6% (42.5%)
CapEx: $9.6B (+51%)
Wafer Shipments: 3.718 m (+19%)
Wafer ASP: $7027 (+21%)Image
Advanced node revenue (N7 and below) up 19% q/q and 59% y/y to $19.3B. N3: +29% q/q; N5:+18%; N7: +10%. Android drove N3 despite Apple seasonality. Image
All end markets up. HPC drove $3B incremental rev while smartphone drove almost $1B. HPC drove 67% of incremental rev and up 20% q/q and 67% y/y. Auto all-time-high for the 2nd straight quarter. Image
Read 23 tweets
Sravan Kundojjala Profile picture
Jan 10
TSMC monthly revenue trend observations.
- October is the greenest and Feb is the reddest when it comes to monthly revenue weights
- Aug to Dec above average in terms of revenue weight while Feb to May below average
- 45/55 split between 1H/2H (last 5 yr average) Image
- In terms of month on month growth, March and August often see strong DD % growth
- December inevitably sees MSD% m/m decline despite as shipments cool off
- In the last 5 years, on ana average January saw 9% month on month growth Image
2Q is the reddest quarter. While 3Q is the greenest. Some anomalies exist like 2009-14 when Q2 was the greenest. Image
Read 4 tweets
Sravan Kundojjala Profile picture
Nov 21, 2024
NVIDIA's forward days of inventory stand at 69 days (healthy) by the end of 3QFY25, meaning it can flush the current inventory on hand quickly (no surprise). Its outstanding inventory purchase & long-term supply obligations inched up again to $29B. This is where HBM procurement sits. Prepaid supply & capacity agreements stood at $5.2B. Multi-yr cloud service agreements grew 15% q/q to $11.3B.Image
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DC revenue grew q/q for every single quarter since 1QFY15 (except for 3 quarters). Networking is down this quarter but will be up next quarter. Image
Image
China revenue hit a record high (+48% q/q & +34% y/y). +34% vs previous peak. Image
Read 4 tweets
Sravan Kundojjala Profile picture
May 4, 2023
Qualcomm 1QCY23
- Revenue down -2 % q/q and -17% y/y to $9.2b (closer to the high-end of the guidance)
- QCT (semiconductor) revenue up 0.6% q/q and down -17% y/y;
-Premium Android, Apple pre-purchases drive handset growth $QCOM Image
- 6th straight quarter of double-digit y/y growth for auto
- Inventory issues continued in handset & IoT
- QCT EBT takes a hit again but came in at the high end of the guidance
- Android and auto to stay flat in 2QCY23 while IoT to see mid-single-digit growth vs 1QCY23
- 2QCY23 guidance suggests revenue will decline 2% q/q and 17% y/y (more pronounced than usual due to Apple purchase patterns)
- Qualcomm guides CY23 3G/4G/5G shipments could decline high-single-digit % y/y
- Despite the smartphone unit decline, the premium tier holds up well
Read 9 tweets
Sravan Kundojjala Profile picture
May 4, 2023
Qorvo 4QFY23:
- Revenue down -15% q/q and -33% y/y to $633m
- Smartphone RFFE revenue from Android up q/q but will decline in the June quarter
- Smartphone RFFE revenue down -46% y/y to $418m
- Android revenue was up sequentially as guided, driven by Samsung $QRVO
- Not seeing any pickup from China reopening (consistent with $QCOM)
- March was the bottom for China Android and will grow sequentially in June quarter
- 40% attach rate in Android 5G & expects it to grow double-digit CAGR
- 10 percentage points of GM hit due to underutilization
- 2023 smartphone shipments to be down but 5G shipments will be up 5-10%
- Apple (37%) and Samsung (12%) two biggest customers in FY23
- 1QFY24 (June) revenue to grow sequentially (mid-pt)
- Content share gain opportunities at Apple with BAW
Read 5 tweets
Sravan Kundojjala Profile picture
May 3, 2023
AMD 1Q23:
- Revenue down -4.4% q/q and -9.1% y/y to $5.35b (above the mid-pt of the guidance)
- Classic AMD revenue down -10% q/q to $3.8b
- Client and data center down q/q and y/y while gaming and embedded grew; semi-custom did well in a seasonally down quarter, surprisingly Image
- Flat q/q guidance for 2Q23; 2H > 1H in revenue in 2023; DC will see double-digit y/y growth in 2023
- DC & client will grow sequentially in 2Q while gaming and embedded will be down
- Within DC, cloud was strong y/y in 1Q. Enterprise weak. Cloud is a low-margin business. $AMD
- 2H enterprise recovery hopes and better cloud performance vs 1H
- Strong growth in DC in 2H, driven by Genoa, Bergamo and MI300; Meaningful DC GPU revenue in 2024; DC GPU a long-term opportunity
- Feels good about product strength and roadmap
- Open to Hyperscaler semi-custom
Read 7 tweets

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