1/ After weeks of fieldwork in Kyiv and Washington, the 9th edition of Essential Ukraine was published today — one of the most complex snapshots of the war so far. Diplomacy is stalled, escalation is accelerating, and the conflict risks entering a new, more dangerous phase.
2/ What began as a debate over Tomahawk missiles has turned into a geopolitical signal — a Missile Crisis 2.0 moment. Washington’s deliberations have shifted from military utility to political leverage, pushing the war toward a strategic threshold.
3/ For months, the U.S. has been providing ISR data for Ukraine’s deep strikes (as @christopherjm reported) — improving its refinery attack campaign, already a quiet policy shift. If Tomahawks are approved, it would mark a step toward a new missile crisis.
@ChristopherJM 4/ Putin, contradicting his MFA, said he still wants to pursue the Alaska framework — a sign that engagement still works. On the ground, Russia holds escalation dominance: striking gas output, key power nods, and transport - pressuring society toward compromise.
@ChristopherJM 5/ Ukraine faces a multi-crisis winter: a weakening energy system, ballooning fiscal deficit, deepening manpower exhaustion, and political unfreezing. The state endures through external financing, asymmetric warfare, and narrative control — but the strain is visible.
@ChristopherJM 6/ Despite exhaustion, Ukrainian society remains resilient and stubborn — rejecting any compromise that looks like capitulation. Yet fatigue is growing. Winter has become the main conversation — not just a season, but a test of endurance and solidarity.
@ChristopherJM 7/ Europe is trapped between legality and necessity: Russian assets are the only way to sustain Ukraine, yet using them risks eroding the EU’s credibility. To justify the move, Brussels leans on the “hybrid warfare” narrative — legitimizing rearmament, tightening control at home.
8/ Trump remains committed to “ending the war,” but his personal diplomacy satisfies neither Moscow nor Kyiv. The US–Russia track continues w/o real progress. Diplomacy, warfare, and politics have merged into a system of managed attrition - all sides adapting, none in control.
9/ Ukraine’s resilience, Europe’s credibility, and Washington’s strategy now depend less on weapons than on coherence — the ability to endure without losing direction. The intel is in the details. Subscribe and read the full report rpolitik.com/essential-ukra…
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