1/ Kyrylo Budanov’s appointment as head of the Office of the President appears as continuation of the post-Yermak political transition — one that was temporary frozen during intensive negotiations with the US. 2/ This seems to me more about preparing for the end game of the war and for what follows: elections, elite rebalancing, and a far more turbulent 2026.

1/ The fresh Essential Ukraine (#13) finds the war shifts toward a defined outcome. US diplomatic efforts are moving into detail just as Ukrainian military and European fiscal capacity tightens. Bottom line: the endgame is approaching, shaped by pressure rather than preference. 2/ Washington now runs two settlement tracks — one with Kyiv, one with Moscow. The four-cluster framework is now effectively confirmed: Territory (with Donbas as the immovable core); Security guarantees; NATO/European architecture; Sanctions & reconstruction.

1/ Yermak’s resignation is a genuine surprise in Kyiv. For months, insiders assumed Zelensky would sacrifice his parliamentary majority—or even his government—before parting with his powerful Chief of Staff. Yet the pressure finally converged. 2/ Early signs of distancing were visible. Zelensky began holding key meetings alone, without Yermak: with former Ambassador to the US Markarova, with GUR chief Budanov, normally interfaced through OPU. These gestures looked subtle at the time; in retrospect, they were indicators

1/ Essential Ukraine #12 is out. The headline: diplomacy has returned earlier than expected. The Alaska framework is back in a more detailed form — driven not only by Washington, but by a quiet shift in Kyiv under the weight of cumulative crises. 2/ The current wave of leaks aimed at disrupting the process. After the Alaska draft, Zelensky & Europeans rushed to US to buy time. Today, Kyiv negotiates from constraint: a deteriorating battlefield, corruption-driven political shock, Europe’s shrinking fiscal capacity.

Update: 1/ Zelensky addressed the nation today — a speech that raised the stakes but revealed his core dilemma. He spoke after a call with Merz, Starmer, and Macron, all signaling that Europe will not support the U.S.-proposed peace outline at this format.

https://twitter.com/BalazsJarabik/status/1991765965131108714

2/ Zelensky's position is impossible: he can neither accept the plan (dignity and sovereignty are at stake he said) nor reject it either w/o risking a rupture with Washington. The U.S. is driving the process; Europe is refusing the substance; Ukraine is trapped in the middle.

1/I just returned from Kyiv, where President Zelensky is facing his most dangerous moment since the invasion: a cascading multi-crisis of worsening battlefield, a ballooning fiscal gap, deepening institutional infighting, political shock triggered by a corruption investigation. 2/ On the battlefield, Kyiv is concentrating everything on slowing Russia in Donbas. Moscow is exploiting this: the Russian army is opening conditions for a deeper breakthrough along the southern Zaporizhzhia axis. The front is becoming asymmetrical— dangerously so for Ukraine.

1/ The 10th edition of Essential Ukraine is out — marking a turning point in both war and diplomacy. The Alaska framework amended, the Budapest summit is postponed, Russia sanctioned, Moscow tests missiles — and the war escalates into a new phase of managed attrition. 2/ Washington’s tactic has shifted: after Kyiv rejected any withdrawal from Donbas and Europe resisted bringing Russia back to the table, Trump recalibrated. The U.S. now pressures Moscow — but the Western (and Ukrainian) “victory” has quietly narrowed to a managed draw.

1/ Here is an update after Washington: the Trump–Zelensky meeting didn’t go well from Kyiv’s perspective. No Tomahawks (perhaps Patriots instead); Trump–Putin in Budapest; “land swaps” (Donbas) returning to the agenda; Moscow's claim freezing the contact line is a concession.

https://twitter.com/BalazsJarabik/status/1979090396534681941

2/ Zelensky has shifted, while Putin — despite Russia’s strategic loss — has barely moved. Zelensky’s insistence on NATO angered Trump, the issue has been off the table from the start. No joint presser followed; Trump flew to Florida, Zelensky faced the media alone, bitter.

1/ President Trump’s announcement of Budapest meeting should surprise no one - I am writing this from the Hungarian capital. The war has escalated: the “Tomahawk crisis” had a global echo, Russia has strengthened its local escalation dominance, Ukraine faces its darkest winter 2/ For Trump, Putin, and Orbán, Budapest is a win–win. Trump supports his closest European ally; Orbán hosts a long-awaited “peace summit” after standing alone on the peace track — remember his peace tour last summer — Putin symbolically returns to the EU after 3.5 years of war.

1/ After weeks of fieldwork in Kyiv and Washington, the 9th edition of Essential Ukraine was published today — one of the most complex snapshots of the war so far. Diplomacy is stalled, escalation is accelerating, and the conflict risks entering a new, more dangerous phase. 2/ What began as a debate over Tomahawk missiles has turned into a geopolitical signal — a Missile Crisis 2.0 moment. Washington’s deliberations have shifted from military utility to political leverage, pushing the war toward a strategic threshold.

1/ Just back from Kyiv, where I talked to dozens of interlocutors. Below are some observations. First, the mood is heavy but steady. One blogger summed it up with a line from an old war movie: the pilot of a burning plane radios in “No panic, we’re fine, we’re falling.” 2/ While it’s a grim joke, Ukraine is holding: the army remains functional, mobilization is strained but ongoing, protests have faded, financing is still available, and politics remain largely under control. For now, Zelensky faces no strategic internal threat.

1/ The 7th edition of Essential Ukraine is out. Given its behind paywall, below are the key trends and conclusions. 2/ After a summer of summits, the war has intensified. Ukraine lives in paradox: society longs for an end to the war, yet rejects concessions to Moscow—creating a persistent tension between public sentiment and geopolitical realities.

1/ The assassination of former Rada speaker Andriy Parubiy is the 4th such high-profile killing in Ukraine over the past 2 years. It comes alongside targeted murders in occupied territories and Russia itself—forming a grim pattern of wartime score-settling. 2/ Russia has seen its own string of assassinations since 2022, including propagandists and military figures, while occupied territories are plagued by regular bombings and targeted killings. Ukraine is not immune either—political violence is spreading.

1/ Sharing a telling piece on security guarantees – a central issue for Ukraine (and Zelensky) in ending the war. The bottom line: NATO membership is off the table, and no viable Western alternative has emerged. 2/ The talk of European contingents backed by the US – but only after a peace deal – is at best a distraction and at worst an obstruction. It plays directly into Moscow’s core demand and one of the war’s original triggers.

1/ I’m in Kyiv these days, and here are some impressions on the possible end of the war. Expectations are muted, information scarce, speculation abundant. 2/ The Alaska Summit — Trump’s turn — has not caused a shock in Ukraine beyond political elites, at least not yet. Summer is in full swing, life goes on. “Everyone wants peace,” people say, but the conditions — the details — will matter most.

1/ Essential Ukraine 6 is out - at times of growing uncertainty.
As Russia pushes forward with drone-based maneuver warfare, Ukraine enters a new, shaky phase—marked by external hesitation and internal consolidation. A short 🧵 with key conclusions 2/
Battlefield update: Russia has ended the attritional phase and now leads in ISR-guided drone warfare. Ukraine, still on the defensive, lacks the depth to counter this shift. Ukraine's chronic manpower shortages have left key areas—such as Pokrovsk—vulnerable.

#Belarus Election Day (and beyond) THREAD: this is a clash between changing society (its symbol has become Tsoi song "peremen" from the time of USSR collapse) and the ruling elite trying to save the state (not merely #Lukashenka staying in power as it appears) 1/ The politization of #Belarus urban middle class gave a birth to a new opposition - with new candidates, drawing new demographics of voters, demonstrating creativity and seeming spontaneity, as well as yielding greater resources - not the traditional opposition parties. /2