Shepherds of sponge war
The sponge front makes it tempting to push forward, but drones make any movement excessively dangerous. Still, doing nothing is even worse unless you have proper hideouts. A network of isolated, dispersed hideouts creates a true sponge defense.
1/12
Fortifications alone don't stop anything. Without coverage, drones and bombs suppress observation and make deliberate breaks deadly. The real sponge defense is a network of isolated, dispersed hideouts - hard to target and easy to melt into.
2/12
Speed can decrease drone danger, but speed reduces maneuverability and situational awareness. Fast-moving vehicles are ideal mine targets. Trade-offs matter: survive the drone - but don't run into mines.
3/12
Depth is lethal for big, slow targets. The bigger and slower you are, the more time defenders get to react. Small infantry units can hide in holes and move in shadow; columns are visible kilometers away and attract everything.
4/12
Drones can be unlimited - but operators aren't. Every sortie costs time and manpower. If a swarm spreads missions across many cheap targets, individual damage per target drops and survivability rises. Economy of force matters.
5/12
Mechanized assault behave like flocks with roles: shared numbers extend their capabilities. But coordinated drones swarm control can still target the most valuable and neutralize low-cost units wave. It's a battle between quantity and quality of control.
6/12
Defenders will funnel attackers into kill zones where artillery does the "harvesting". Remote mining amplifies that effect. Heavy copters and indirect fires can reshape the battlefield in the mid of combat, slow and guide assault.
7/12
Breakthrough units often rely on drone resupply - which leave them vulnerable. These breakout elements can still be valuable: they divert recon, infiltrate deep, and force enemy reallocation. Risk versus reward. But that can be exploited, pulling aggressor string.
8/12
Massed offense can overwhelm defensive fires for a time, but each failed push clogs terrain with debris and raises the cost of the next assault. Preparation helps, but the attack's goal is simple: reach the objective.
9/12
Defense is an operational masterpiece: rapid adaptation, correct target prioritization, and resource management to avoid oversaturation that break the tuned grinder. It’s harder, but more sustainable.
10/12
Logistics sits above it all: 5-15-40 km zones are the blood vessels. Disrupt supply and you can break an operation before it starts. Recon drones make vast areas semi-transparent; attack drones make them deadlier than the front line.
11/12
The slow drones-and-meat grind is reliable but costly - it demands organization, consistency, and dedication.
Rush is an option that requires a lot of preparations, that may not keep up with the technological advancement hence should be forgotten till slower days.
12/12
PS
Kupiansk is an example how offense can grind the break point.
Dobropillia - how defense can exploit successful offensive actions.
Each section of the front is unique - a result of complex equations.
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Rashanverse has no time dimension; Frontline isn't an exception, hence all time-based predictions consistently fail. With this and the Russians' recent dynamics in mind, let's explore how the Donbas offensive will evolve.
Beyond dense settlements, terrain remains the main factor. Roads are important but rarely used for assaults. Fortifications may slow down the advance but don't affect the vector of attack.
Grind allows focusing on high ground and using ravines for occasional jumps. Vectors of attack usually follow the watershed, with rare attempts to cross multiple streams in a single operation (hello Dobropillia).
In a modern positional warfare, seizing ground isn't enough - attackers must capture stable positions they can hold. This thread explains why those points turn tactical gains into lasting control - and why taking them often comes at a very high cost.
From the attacker's perspective, a stable position is more than a point on a map - it's a foundation for control. Capture it and you gain decisive lines of movement, observation, and logistics; fail and your gains evaporate.
Stable positions solidify control: they anchor supply routes, protect rear areas, enable forward basing for artillery and drones, and deny the defender easy counterattack corridors. For an occupier, they turn fleeting footholds into lasting presence.
Cheese Defense review
Heavy drone usage has significantly reshaped modern defensive tactics in Ukraine.
For the AFU, adapting means balancing exposure risks with the need for flexibility along one of the world's longest active frontlines.
Instead of rigid continuous lines, the AFU uses "pockets" - fortified strongpoints or "super nodes".
These hubs resist enemy attacks while visible gaps let AFU hold more ground with fewer troops.
Those gaps aren't empty. They’re filled with mines, obstacles & kill zones to slow Russian advances.
Drones amplify this: RuAF UAVs search for weak spots, while AFU FPVs & loitering munitions strike intruders.
Russian forces of Army Group East are attempting to secure tactical gains on the front by shifting their focus westward, away from Novopavlivka, in an effort to cross the Vovcha river and establish a foothold.
With Novopavlivka as an obvious answer.
AFU are relying on the high ground west of the river and defensive bubbles centered around major strongholds to contain the offensive. In exchange, Ukrainian defenders appear willing to concede some empty territory, of 13 people per square kilometers.
Russians may be allowed to advance as far as Vyshneve, in the area between the Yanchur and Vovcha rivers, moving along AFU main ditches in a narrow corridor behind the defensive lines.
That will give them up to 300km2 to report but no real benefits to threaten AFU.
MoD RF reportedly captured 90km2 (lowest this month) and 6 settlements over a week.
Seredne at Lyman
Kleban-Byk, Nelipivka at Toretsk
Filia, Pershe Travnia at Pokrovsk
and Zaporozhske at Novopavlivka.
Majority of the gains happened at Novopavlivka and Lyman directions.
Things aren't that bad despite the information background.
Activities across all the fronts looks next