1/ President Trump’s announcement of Budapest meeting should surprise no one - I am writing this from the Hungarian capital. The war has escalated: the “Tomahawk crisis” had a global echo, Russia has strengthened its local escalation dominance, Ukraine faces its darkest winter
2/ For Trump, Putin, and Orbán, Budapest is a win–win. Trump supports his closest European ally; Orbán hosts a long-awaited “peace summit” after standing alone on the peace track — remember his peace tour last summer — Putin symbolically returns to the EU after 3.5 years of war.
3/ For Kyiv and Brussels, the picture is darker. Ukraine knew the Tomahawks wouldn’t come, and the EU has run out of money — frozen Russian assets are now the only option to keep Ukraine afloat. U.S. military assistance remains indispensable — no substitute for years to come.
4/ The meeting reflects a shift in leverage. Moscow is dictating tempo (of the war) through controlled escalation, Washington is moving diplomacy to Europe’s periphery, and the EU has lost both unity and initiative.
5/ Zelensky is under immense pressure. Russia holds military advantage; Ukraine faces a ballooning budget deficit, fading approval ratings (Zaluzhny, Budanov leading in polls), rising internal insecurity, and unfreezing politics. Budapest 2.0 will not be received well at home.
6/ The real question: will Budapest become another Alaska — a quiet U.S.–Russia understanding and a pre-election stage for Orbán — or will it actually bring the war’s end closer? Either way, the path toward ending the war is drawing nearer, just not on EU’s terms.
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