🧵 Fed Intervention Soon — Silver Is Raising Alarm Bells (a thread)
1️⃣/8
Something is breaking beneath the surface.
The Fed’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF) just saw $6.5 billion withdrawn —
the first meaningful draw in over a year.
Banks are quietly pledging Treasuries to borrow overnight dollars.
That’s the first tremor before a liquidity quake.
#Silver #Macro #Fed
1️⃣/8
Something is breaking beneath the surface.
The Fed’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF) just saw $6.5 billion withdrawn —
the first meaningful draw in over a year.
Banks are quietly pledging Treasuries to borrow overnight dollars.
That’s the first tremor before a liquidity quake.
#Silver #Macro #Fed
The SOFR–RRP spread — the heartbeat of the funding system — just surged to its highest level since the COVID crisis.
1) When SOFR trades far above the RRP rate, it means:
2) Repo desks can’t source enough collateral.
3) The “plumbing” is jammed.
Every dollar of funding now costs more than it should.
This is the same stress signal that flashed in March 2020 and September 2019 — right before emergency Fed action.
1) When SOFR trades far above the RRP rate, it means:
2) Repo desks can’t source enough collateral.
3) The “plumbing” is jammed.
Every dollar of funding now costs more than it should.
This is the same stress signal that flashed in March 2020 and September 2019 — right before emergency Fed action.
3️⃣
Now look at silver.
Backwardation has lasted over 15 days — spot prices above futures, a rare and powerful distortion.
That means real, deliverable silver is scarce.
Dealers can’t borrow or roll positions cheaply enough to close the gap.
The cost of carry is broken.
This is not a speculative rally — it’s a monetary warning light.
Now look at silver.
Backwardation has lasted over 15 days — spot prices above futures, a rare and powerful distortion.
That means real, deliverable silver is scarce.
Dealers can’t borrow or roll positions cheaply enough to close the gap.
The cost of carry is broken.
This is not a speculative rally — it’s a monetary warning light.
4️⃣
SLV, the world’s largest silver ETF, confirms it.
In just days it flipped from a –1.68 % discount to a +2 % premium.
Authorized participants can’t arbitrage efficiently — metal isn’t easily sourced, and funding costs have exploded.
When the ETF trades above its net asset value,
it means paper demand exceeds deliverable supply.
SLV, the world’s largest silver ETF, confirms it.
In just days it flipped from a –1.68 % discount to a +2 % premium.
Authorized participants can’t arbitrage efficiently — metal isn’t easily sourced, and funding costs have exploded.
When the ETF trades above its net asset value,
it means paper demand exceeds deliverable supply.
5️⃣
Meanwhile in China, Shanghai Gold Exchange silver vaults keep draining.
Outflows are now exceeding replenishment —
physical silver is leaving faster than it’s coming in.
It’s a clear sign of tight supply and strong demand from the East,
while Western futures markets sit hollow and over-leveraged.
Meanwhile in China, Shanghai Gold Exchange silver vaults keep draining.
Outflows are now exceeding replenishment —
physical silver is leaving faster than it’s coming in.
It’s a clear sign of tight supply and strong demand from the East,
while Western futures markets sit hollow and over-leveraged.
6️⃣
The Dollar Index (DXY) just rejected the 99–100 zone —
precisely where past liquidity panics peaked.
Dollar strength here isn’t confidence — it’s strain.
Funding costs are climbing faster than global demand for the dollar.
The world’s reserve currency is gasping for collateral.
The Dollar Index (DXY) just rejected the 99–100 zone —
precisely where past liquidity panics peaked.
Dollar strength here isn’t confidence — it’s strain.
Funding costs are climbing faster than global demand for the dollar.
The world’s reserve currency is gasping for collateral.
7️⃣
Here’s the roadmap:
Stage 1 – Margin Stress: paper futures dump under forced deleveraging.
Stage 2 – Dislocation: physical premiums surge, backwardation deepens.
Stage 3 – Intervention: the Fed expands repo lines or restarts QE to restore collateral flow.
Silver will likely lead that chain — selling off on paper, then erupting once policy panic begins.
Here’s the roadmap:
Stage 1 – Margin Stress: paper futures dump under forced deleveraging.
Stage 2 – Dislocation: physical premiums surge, backwardation deepens.
Stage 3 – Intervention: the Fed expands repo lines or restarts QE to restore collateral flow.
Silver will likely lead that chain — selling off on paper, then erupting once policy panic begins.
8️⃣
“Silver is the alarm bell of the monetary system.
It rings before the Fed speaks.”
Backwardation. Repo stress. Vaults draining.
All flashing the same message: liquidity is dying.
The Fed can’t ignore it much longer.
Intervention is coming.
#Silver #Gold #Fed #LiquidityCrisis #Macro #Dollar
“Silver is the alarm bell of the monetary system.
It rings before the Fed speaks.”
Backwardation. Repo stress. Vaults draining.
All flashing the same message: liquidity is dying.
The Fed can’t ignore it much longer.
Intervention is coming.
#Silver #Gold #Fed #LiquidityCrisis #Macro #Dollar
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