A Major Financial Event Is Imminent in 2026 ,And the Cause Is Already Visible (a thread)

1/15
A major global financial event is coming in 2026.
Not a banking collapse.
Not a recession story.
This time, the sovereign bond market itself is the risk.
And the first warning Sign is MOVE index.
Here’s the full chain → 2/
The world has three pressure points that are quietly becoming unstable at the same time:
1️⃣ U.S. Treasury funding
2️⃣ Japan’s yen/carry structure
3️⃣ China’s credit system

Any ONE of these snapping will trigger a global chain reaction.
2026 is the convergence point.

1/8 (A thread)
One of the quietest reasons behind the current funding strain and market volatility:
Treasury is draining bank reserves straight into the TGA, and the recent government shutdown forced an even more aggressive drain.
Let’s break this down simply below 👇
#GovernmentShutdown 2/8
🔹 What are bank reserves?

🧵(a thread) “The Mystery Behind the 50-Year Mortgage” — a detective story about a broken system
Tweet 1/12 —(Start the investigation)

A 50-year mortgage.
Sounds like Masterstroke. But it isn’t. It’s a confession — that America can no longer control its interest rates. Let’s investigate what really forced this decision 👇 Tweet 2 — Clue 1: The jobs market stopped working as a signal
Clue 1: Jobs fell… but yields didn’t.
Historically, when labor weakens, long yields collapse — bonds price slowdown first.
Not this time

🧵 Why the “3-Month – Fed Funds” Spread Is the Hidden Signal Behind Gold’s Surge (a thread)
(and how it mirrors 2007–08’s rush for pristine collateral)
1️⃣/12
Everyone’s watching the Fed’s rate path and CPI,
but #gold is front-running something deeper —
a silent stress inside the plumbing of the dollar system.
That signal is buried in a tiny number:
3-month Treasury yield – Fed Funds rate.
2️⃣
Normally, 3-month Treasury bills yield slightly below the Fed Funds rate —
about –5 to –15 bps.
That’s healthy: T-bills are “risk-free” and ultra-liquid,
so investors accept a lower yield to hold them.
It’s the price of safety.

🧵 The Silent Battle for Silver — Exposing Bullion Banks' Games to Suppress Physical Demand (a thread)
1️⃣/8 Every time #silver’s market screams shortage, PSLV gets pushed down.
That’s not normal.
Silver in backwardation means real metal is scarce—yet the trust backed by actual bars trades weaker than paper products 2️⃣ The pattern is clear:
Backwardation spikes → PSLV/SLV ratio drops.
It’s happened again and again through 2025.
Instead of rewarding physical exposure, the market punishes it

Why the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) & the fractional-metal system are heading towards collapse🧵(a thread)
1/12
The house of paper metal is cracking.
For decades, the LBMA’s fractional system thrived on unallocated #gold and #silver claims.
Now, vaults are bleeding metal faster than they can refill.
London’s silver stocks are at record lows — the foundation is eroding 2/
Silver’s backwardation lasting over two weeks just exposed the system.
It’s not a quirk — it’s a warning flare.
For the first time in years, spot silver trades above futures for this long, showing what’s coming
“The market no longer trusts paper — it wants real metal.”
The countdown has begun

🔥Inside the Silver Basis Trap: how a frozen carry trade rippled through global liquidity (a thread)
1️⃣/10 It began as easy carry.
When silver was in contango, funds bought SLV/physical and shorted futures, pocketing the spread.
Cheap repo + abundant collateral made it a “risk-free” trade. 2️⃣ Then the physical market flipped.
Physical tightness made lease rates surge, raising the cost of holding metal.
That spilled straight into funding: desks suddenly needed more cash to finance the same inventory

🧵 Silver Thread: Why the “Dump” Is Actually Ultra-Bullish (A thread)

1️⃣/7
Silver has now been in backwardation for 16 straight days.
That means spot silver trades $1.24 higher than futures, a rare sign of physical scarcity.
At the same time, SLV borrow rates have exploded to 19%, one of the highest ever recorded.
This isn’t just volatility, it’s funding stress spreading through the financial system. ⚠️
#silversqueeze 2️⃣
To understand this, you need to know what’s breaking:
SOFR (repo rate) has risen above the Fed’s own emergency lending rate.

1) That means the system is desperate for collateral — Treasuries and safe assets are being hoarded.

2) Dealers and funds are being forced to dump paper assets (including gold and silver futures) to raise cash.

3) This is what a liquidity squeeze looks like from the inside.

🧵 Fed Intervention Soon — Silver Is Raising Alarm Bells (a thread)
1️⃣/8
Something is breaking beneath the surface.
The Fed’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF) just saw $6.5 billion withdrawn —
the first meaningful draw in over a year.
Banks are quietly pledging Treasuries to borrow overnight dollars.
That’s the first tremor before a liquidity quake.
#Silver #Macro #Fed The SOFR–RRP spread — the heartbeat of the funding system — just surged to its highest level since the COVID crisis.

1) When SOFR trades far above the RRP rate, it means:

2) Repo desks can’t source enough collateral.

3) The “plumbing” is jammed.

Every dollar of funding now costs more than it should.

This is the same stress signal that flashed in March 2020 and September 2019 — right before emergency Fed action.

🧵(a thread) FRACTIONAL GOLD SYSTEM — IS YOUR ETF SAFE? (Part 1)
1️⃣/10
Most people think when they buy gold through an ETF or a bullion account, there’s a bar with their name on it.
But in reality, your gold likely exists only as an IOU — not a bar.
Let’s decode how this fractional gold system really works 👇
#gold #Silver #silversqueeze 2️⃣
Start with 1 real bar (400 oz) sitting in a bullion bank’s vault.
Now watch how this same bar is turned into many paper claims across multiple markets.

Thread 🧵: Under gold, money was hard and housing was affordable.
Under fiat, money is debt and housing became a lifetime trap.
Here’s how the mortgage system cheats the average person
1/10
Housing was supposed to be shelter.
But after gold was abandoned and money became paper backed by credit, homes turned into the world’s biggest debt machine
#HardMoney #MortgageSlavery #MiddleClassSqueeze 2/
When you take a mortgage, you think the bank is lending you savings.
They’re not.
They create new money with a keystroke — and you spend 20–30 years paying it back with your real labor

🧵 Why the Rally in Gold Miners Is Not Over Yet

1/ Many are calling miners “overbought.”
But this rally is not just speculation — it’s rooted in macro fundamentals.
Let’s break it down 👇(a thread)
#Gold #Silver #GoldMiners #SPX #Macro 2/ Gold miners = leveraged gold, yes.
But their real drivers are two ratios:
1) Gold/Oil → margins.

2) Gold/SPX → capital flows.

When both rise, miners can run far longer than most expect.

China is quietly building a digital gold system that could replace the dollar in trade. Here’s how…
1/
💡 Did you know China runs two gold systems?
1) SHFE → futures, speculation, collateral.

2) SGE → spot, physical settlement, international vaults.
Banks constantly shuffle gold between them.

But a new shift could make both redundant 👇
#Gold #DeDollarization #China #BRICS #DigitalAssets #SoundMoney 2/
Today it’s clunky:
1) Want leverage? Park gold in SHFE warrants.

2) Want to settle trade? Convert into SGE warrants.
Slow. Costly. Limited.

1/16
The Chart of the Century: Gold vs Dow
For 100 years, the Gold/Dow ratio has traced an expanding triangle (ABCDE).
We are now in Wave E — the terminal phase.

➡️ Elliott Wave target:
• Gold $20,000–$25,000 base case
• Silver $300–$500 (potentially >$1000 in mania)
• Gold/Dow ratio aiming for 20x from here, possibly retesting Upper trendline or a bit throwover
It seems unbelievable today. Bookmark this , in 10 years you’ll see how obvious it was.

The reset decade has begun. #Gold #Dow #ElliottWave #Reset #Markets #Macro #ChartOfThecentury What is GOLD/DJI?
It measures gold’s purchasing power vs equities. When it rises, gold outperforms stocks; when it falls, equities dominate. It’s the cleanest lens on money vs risk.