Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Oct 17 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Ukraine is now striking Russia “blackout for blackout.”

Kyiv has built a long-range strike force using home-produced drones and missiles, and it is hitting Russian refineries almost every day.

“If they impose blackouts on us, we will do the same,” Zelenskyy told POLITICO.

1/ Image
Over the last week, Russian forces fired 3,100 drones, 92 missiles, and 1,360 glide bombs, mostly at Ukraine’s energy network.

This time, Ukraine responded with deep strikes inside Russia.

2/
So far in 2025, Ukraine has hit 21 of Russia’s 38 oil refineries, damaging roughly 38% of its refining capacity, according to the BBC.

Zelenskyy said the strikes cost Russia “up to a fifth” of its gasoline supply, forcing imports from Belarus and disrupting military logistics.

3/
Kyiv also hit a power plant in Belgorod, causing blackouts near the border.

Zelenskyy: “The enemy must bear the cost of this war.”

Ukraine’s goal is to make Russia feel the real price of its aggression — through precise, targeted strikes on energy and military infrastructure.

4/
New Ukrainian systems are already in use.

The Flamingo cruise missile, with a range of 3,000 kilometers, has entered combat.

Flamingo is paired with Neptune for deeper strikes.

5/
The Ruta drone-missile hit a maritime platform in the Black Sea at 250 km, and the Bashneft refinery in Ufa — 1,400 km from Ukraine — was also struck.

The strategy is to make the Kremlin lose more from continuing the war than from ending it.

6/
According to The Financial Times, the United States is providing targeting data for Ukrainian strikes while debating whether to supply Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Trump said he is considering the transfer.

7/
Zelenskyy: “Russia is afraid the Americans may give us Tomahawks. This pressure can work for peace.”

By turning Russia’s energy weapon back on itself, Kyiv is rewriting the rules of this war.

8X

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More from @Mylovanov

Oct 19
Putin told Trump Ukraine must surrender all of Donetsk oblast to end the war — WP.

Let it sink in: Putin told Trump Ukraine must surrender

A consolation prize: Putin is willing to give up [some of] Zaporizhzhia and Kherson for that.

1/ Image
But Trump didn’t back Putin’s demand [good for him!]

After meeting Zelensky on Oct 17, he called for a ceasefire “where they are” and plans to meet Putin soon in Hungary. 2/
Still, White House envoy Steve Witkoff urged Kyiv to cede Donetsk, echoing Moscow’s claim that the region is mostly Russian-speaking [and so what? Does it mean the US have to give itself up to the UK now, by this logic?]

3/
Read 9 tweets
Oct 19
In Poland, civilians train for a possible Russian invasion.

Telegraph: Children practise forest drills, women learn to shoot and groups near the Kaliningrad border stockpile weapons. Many join the Polish Preppers Network to learn how to fight if troops don’t arrive in time. 1/ Image
Piotr Czuryllo, known as Poland’s “Grandfather of Preppers,” leads the movement. His garage holds rifles, bows, and tactical gear. “We are all armed and have tactics in place. If needed, we’ll move to the forest and fight from there,” he said. 2/
In Łódź, shooting clubs train civilians in pistol work and field medicine. Trainees shoot live rounds, apply tourniquets, and carry injured volunteers to cover.

Many join weekend sessions to learn how to fight and save lives under fire. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Oct 18
Putin fears Tomahawks. Proven in battles, they threaten Russia’s S-400s and can shift the war’s course.

If Trump wants peace, he must give Ukraine Tomahawks.

They pierce Russian air defenses and hit any target, recently proving effective against Iran — The Telegraph. 1/ Image
The Kremlin and Lukashenko are threatening nuclear war if Tomahawks are deployed to Ukraine, revealing how much they fear this weapon.

Ukraine could use Tomahawks to completely shut down Russian oil refineries, which are the life-blood of Russia's staggering economy. 2/
Putin recruits non-ethnic Russians, prisoners, and mercenaries to avoid drafting Muscovites.

Moscow faces unrest as fuel shortages halt travel. Anti-Putin songs now echo in St. Petersburg and elite hubs for the first time in weeks. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Oct 18
Trump said that India will stop buying Russian oil as part of U.S. pressure on Moscow to end the war in Ukraine, writes Reuters.

He said PM Narendra Modi personally told him India would halt imports — a claim Indian officials have not confirmed.

1/ Image
Trump first mentioned the conversation earlier this week, saying it was part of his broader campaign to “cut off Putin’s war money.”

India is Russia’s largest oil customer, buying over 1.9 million barrels per day in recent months.

2/
If true, the move would mark a major shift in global energy flows — and a major diplomatic win for Trump as he presses allies to tighten economic pressure on the Kremlin.

Read 4 tweets
Oct 18
Ukraine spy chief Budanov: When the threat to Europe comes from the East, any alliance without Ukraine is stillborn. It won’t work for geographical, military reasons.

If someone thinks he can do it — try, it will end as right now. This shows uncertainty in what exists. 1/
Q: How much does Washington influence our strategy?
Budanov: Washington is with us. 2/
Budanov: It is unlikely there'll be no life-threatening situations in the coming years for Ukraine.

We must be ready to fight back, including armed resistance, at any moment. We'll have to live with this. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Oct 18
Ukraine Air Force commander Kryvonozhko: Western partners are sometimes surprised by our work.

They see what we do, but they don't understand how we do it.

They no longer teach us. We come to teach them. 1/
Kryvonozhko: During mass air raids, commanders — from Air Force chief to anti-air units chiefs and aircraft pilots — can act independently.

Once given a target, pilots no longer require orders from ground but destroy it themselves. 2/
Mi-17 helicopter commander: The advantage of shooting down drones with a helicopter is that it is more mobile.

Planes operate with guided missiles, and their cost is quite considerable. We work with a regular machine gun. It is much more money efficient. 3X
Read 4 tweets

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