Thread by @KevorkAlmassian

🚨 The rapprochement between Julani’s Syria and Russia is a transaction born of exhaustion in a much longer Turkish game that ultimately aims to push Russian influence out of the Mediterranean.

WATCH this video to learn when Türkiye will make its move against Moscow. 🧵

1- Turkey’s rise in the Syrian war didn’t happen by accident. It was the result of strategic patience; a long game played beneath the chaos.

2- For decades, Turkey was NATO’s southeastern stronghold and the West’s gatekeeper to the Middle East.

3- But under President Erdogan, Ankara redefined its purpose. It no longer wanted to be a “bridge between East and West.”

It wanted to become a pole of power in its own right.

4- The Syrian war gave Erdogan that opportunity.

By backing Islamist factions, Ankara sought to:
– Crush Kurdish autonomy along its border
– Build loyal local administrations in northern Syria
– Reassert influence from Aleppo to Mosul

5- What began as “border security” turned into controlled expansion. Every ceasefire and “de-escalation zone” under the Astana process was used to reshape Syria’s map in Turkey’s favor.

6- Today, Turkish troops patrol deep inside Syria. The lira circulates in local markets. Turkish-backed councils issue IDs, run schools, and collect taxes. Turkish firms dominate trade and reconstruction.

Turkey built a permanent zone of influence.

7- Russia tolerated it because Ankara was useful.
Turkey mediated grain deals with Ukraine, kept trade open under sanctions, and acted as a bridge between Moscow and the West.

But strategic convenience always comes with a price: dependency.

8- Turkey didn’t stop there. It expanded into the South Caucasus, helping Azerbaijan win the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and the 2023 ethnic cleansing of 120,000 Armenians.

9- That victory opened the path for something bigger: the Zangezur Corridor.

A land route that will connect Turkey directly to Azerbaijan and, through it, to the Turkic republics of Central Asia.

10- Once complete, it will give Ankara continuous overland access from the Mediterranean to the Caspian, bypassing both Iran and Russia.

11- This is a geopolitical revolution. It turns Turkey from a regional actor into a Eurasian power.

– It erodes Russia’s influence in the Caucasus.
– It sidelines Iran from trade routes.
– It unites the Turkic world from the Balkans to Xinjiang.

12- That’s why Ankara calls it a “Century Project.”
The plan: make Turkey the pivot state linking Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia.

13- Now, let’s talk about the illusion behind the “rapprochement” between Julani, Turkey, and Russia.

14- Anyone familiar with the ideology of Erdogan’s and Julani’s networks — the Muslim Brotherhood and Takfiri currents — knows that this détente is purely tactical.

15- For them, Russia remains an infidel occupier, a temporary partner in a longer struggle.

Sooner or later, the same cycle will repeat:
Pressure → Escalation → Betrayal.

16- The same forces that broke the Astana and Sochi deals will move again to push Russia out of Syria, not by war this time, but by political and economic pressure.

17- So when Moscow and Julani shake hands today, it’s a sign of exhaustion; a temporary pause in a much longer Turkish game.

18- That’s the trap Russia finds itself in.

To preserve its foothold in Syria, it must rely on the goodwill of those who ultimately want it gone.

19- For Turkey, it’s simple:

Russia’s presence is useful enough to deter Western overreach but weak enough to never challenge Turkish dominance.

20- Once Turkey consolidates control from northern Syria through Armenia to Central Asia, Moscow’s cooperation will no longer be needed.

And when that moment comes, pressure to remove Russia from its port in Syria will rise sharply.

21- This is why the so-called “rapprochement” is an illusion and a temporary alignment masking an inevitable future clash.

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