Honza Černý Profile picture
Oct 18 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
🧵 THREAD:

“No COT? No problem. The Silver War doesn’t need their numbers anymore.”

1️⃣
The U.S. government is in shutdown.
CFTC reports are frozen.
No COT. No Bank Participation. No transparency.
The paper world just went blind. 👀 Image
2️⃣
But here’s the thing — stackers don’t need their data.
We see what’s happening every day:

Vaults draining.

ETF inflows.

Registered bars disappearing.

Premiums rising.
👉 The battlefield speaks louder than the reports.
3️⃣
When the numbers go dark, the truth comes to light.
And that truth is silver leaving the system — one real ounce at a time. 🪙⚡
4️⃣
They can pause the reports, but they can’t pause the math:

LBMA vaults down again.
SLV keeps swallowing ounces.
COMEX deliverables shrinking.
Backwards spreads screaming: “Give me the metal NOW.”
5️⃣
Stackers already read between the lines.
Because we are the data they don’t want to publish.
We are the physical drain.
We are the ones shortening their fuse. ⏳🔥
6️⃣
Remember: when the system hides the truth, you’re closer than ever to it.
Each missing report is another confirmation that we’re hitting a nerve. 🧠💥
7️⃣
No COT? Fine.
We’ll trust the only metric that can’t be manipulated — the sound of real silver hitting the table.
Clink. Clink. Victory loading.
8️⃣
Stay calm. Stay focused.
The shutdown won’t last forever.
But the awakening it caused… will.
#SilverSqueeze #StackerLogic #PhysicalOnly #SilverGonnaPrevail
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More from @honzacern1

Oct 19
🧵 SILVER MARKET CRISIS 2025 — “THE UNRAVELING”

1️⃣
London is out of silver.

Even Metals Focus (LBMA consultancy) admits:

“Short-term lease rates surged to 200%...

backwardation at record highs... shortage of unallocated metal in London.”

Unprecedented.

2️⃣

83% of all silver in London vaults is now locked inside ETFs.

Fully allocated.

➡️ Meaning: it can’t be leased, traded, or used to settle industrial or COMEX obligations.
Paper silver can’t find metal.
3️⃣

LBMA needs 150 million oz to restore “normality.”
That’s 88% of the entire COMEX registered vault silver.
Let that sink in.

To defend sub-$60 silver, London must airlift U.S. silver — by chartered planes.
Read 17 tweets
Oct 19
🧵 Thread: How the silver market broke (2025 edition)

1. The calm before the storm

The global silver market had already been under strain for years. According to one analysis, from 2021 onward demand exceeded supply by ~678 million ounces.

Silver is unlike gold: much of its supply comes as a by-product of mining other metals. So it doesn’t respond as quickly to price signals.

On the demand side: industrial uses (especially solar power) are growing. Silver is used in photovoltaic cells, electronics etc.

On the investor side: With global uncertainty, inflation, weak dollar talk, precious metals were increasingly in focus.

So we had a market that was already stretched — then the spark hit.Image
Image
Image
2. India says: “Let’s load up on silver for the goddess”

In India, investors and consumers shifted part of their traditional festival buying away from gold → silver. Why? Because gold had run up so high, and people were looking for the next leg (and the social-media push on silver was strong).

One quoted dealer in India said: “I have never seen these kind of premiums … people who are dealing silver and silver coins, they’re literally out of stock.”

Premiums in India on silver above international rates, which are normally minimal, started climbing. Indian imports of silver fell ~42% in 2025 through August, even as demand surged.

Brown-note sarcasm: Yes, you heard it right — instead of “I’ll buy gold this festive season,” many went “Hmm, silver’s the under-dog, let’s go silver.” The under-dog turned into the scarce-dog.
3. The supply-chain & global arbitrage got squeezed

As India and others clambered for physical metal, supply chains began creaking. One big point: physical inventories in the global hubs (particularly London) fell dangerously.

One key condition: Although large amounts of silver exist in warehouses (e.g., in New York), not all of it is immediately deliverable to the points of demand (London, India).

So you could have “tons of silver” but still a shortage of usable supply.

Example: Leasing or borrowing silver in London became wildly expensive because metal was simply not available to lend. One commentator says overnight borrowing rates spiked. Business Standard+1

The perfect storm ingredients:

Festival demand in India
Industrial demand (solar etc)
Investment demand (ETFs, hedge funds)
Limited physical supply + logistical delays → large premiums and shortages
Read 11 tweets
Oct 17
1️⃣ Is there a bigger problem than ZERO “free float” in London?
JPM could “fix” it on paper — without moving a single ounce of silver.
But they don’t. Why? 🧵👇
@KingKong9888 @pmbug Image
2️⃣ About 86% of all silver in London is locked inside ETFs/ETCs — mostly SLV.
SLV holds 12,213t in London and 3,209t in NY (Comex).
All within JPM’s vaults.
In theory, JPM could shift some SLV shares from London to NY
and instantly free up silver in London.
Yet they keep it tight
3️⃣
Most silver in NY might be held in customer accounts, not JPM’s own “house” stock meaning it can’t be pledged to SLV.
And since silver was recently added to the U.S. strategic mineral list, those clients probably don’t want their silver “transferred” to London anyway.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 15
🧵 THREAD | Real Ratios Don’t Lie — Silver Is 10× Undervalued

They say Gold/Silver ratio is 80:1.
But that’s just paper math.
Let’s see what happens when we use real data — assuming gold = $4,200/oz.

SPECIAL THANKS TO @RoadtoRoota FOR KICKOFF
📊1. Market Price (80:1)
Paper says silver = $52.50/oz.
That’s the illusion — detached from physical reality.
🏦 2. Physical Available (0.79:1)
Bars, coins, ETFs.

Real silver available for investment is actually scarcer than gold.

At this ratio, silver could easily justify a four-digit price under real scarcity.
Read 10 tweets
Oct 15
🇨🇳 Both SGE (Shanghai Gold Exchange) and SHFE (Shanghai Futures Exchange) just hit ALL-TIME HIGHS in silver and gold.
Silver closed at ¥11,970/kg ≈ $52.2/oz, higher than COMEX.
➡️ Physical price leads. Paper follows.
2️⃣
Daily data confirms it:
China SGE/SFE vaults are draining fast.

32,643 kg silver left in one day.

29,650 kg lost this week.
Physical is leaving the vaults — and not coming back.
3️⃣
Volume exploded on both exchanges.
This isn’t retail FOMO — it’s industrial and institutional accumulation.

The East is absorbing physical, while the West is still playing with IOUs.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 14
🧵 | India’s Silver Premium = Reality Check

1️⃣
🚨 In India, silver ETFs are now trading at a 10–15% premium to spot.

Major funds (Kotak, SBI, Tata, UTI) have paused new purchases due to a shortage of LBMA-grade bars. That’s not normal.

m.economictimes.com/markets/commod…
2️⃣
Translation? Physical silver is tight.

When there’s not enough metal to back the paper, premiums explode and the “spot price” becomes fiction.
3️⃣
London just saw a historic short squeeze — lease rates over 30% last Friday.

Shorts are bleeding. Paper burns, physical rules.
Read 8 tweets

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