1/ Here is an update after Washington: the Trump–Zelensky meeting didn’t go well from Kyiv’s perspective. No Tomahawks (perhaps Patriots instead); Trump–Putin in Budapest; “land swaps” (Donbas) returning to the agenda; Moscow's claim freezing the contact line is a concession.
https://twitter.com/BalazsJarabik/status/1979090396534681941
2/ Zelensky has shifted, while Putin — despite Russia’s strategic loss — has barely moved. Zelensky’s insistence on NATO angered Trump, the issue has been off the table from the start. No joint presser followed; Trump flew to Florida, Zelensky faced the media alone, bitter.
3/ Re: process, Alaska outlined the U.S.–Russia understanding. Since then, Trump has raised the strategic stakes for Putin w/ the Tomahawk crisis, pressured Europeans by handing them the bill (and demanding tougher energy sanctions), Ukraine’s battlefield position has worsened.
4/ Assessments of the battlefield differ, but Russia has demonstrated clear escalation dominance — striking gas, electricity, and transmission systems simultaneously for the first time. Ukraine now faces its most vulnerable moment yet, both militarily and economically.
5/ After meeting Trump, Zelensky hinted that Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Donetsk region (again) is the final sticking point in peace talks. The defiance isn’t gone — but with the Tomahawk threat off the table, Kyiv has little choice left but to negotiate.
6/ Why Donbas matters: a Ukrainian withdrawal would look like a capitulation. Kyiv’s ultimate goal is to frame the end of the war as a draw, not a defeat. But after Washington, that outcome now depends less on Ukraine — and far more on what happens in Budapest.
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