Honza Černý Profile picture
Oct 19 17 tweets 2 min read Read on X
🧵 SILVER MARKET CRISIS 2025 — “THE UNRAVELING”

1️⃣
London is out of silver.

Even Metals Focus (LBMA consultancy) admits:

“Short-term lease rates surged to 200%...

backwardation at record highs... shortage of unallocated metal in London.”

Unprecedented.

2️⃣

83% of all silver in London vaults is now locked inside ETFs.

Fully allocated.

➡️ Meaning: it can’t be leased, traded, or used to settle industrial or COMEX obligations.
Paper silver can’t find metal.
3️⃣

LBMA needs 150 million oz to restore “normality.”
That’s 88% of the entire COMEX registered vault silver.
Let that sink in.

To defend sub-$60 silver, London must airlift U.S. silver — by chartered planes.
4️⃣

The squeeze is global:
🇮🇳 India’s festival season triggered a buying stampede.

Refineries ran out of stock.
Premiums hit record highs.
26 million oz imported in September — with more coming.
Silver is vanishing.
5️⃣

Meanwhile, U.S. COMEX vaults are drained.

CME stocks down 19 million oz from peak.

Tariff fears, refinery bottlenecks, and lack of high-grade recycling keep inventories tight.
This is not a one-off event. It’s structural.
6️⃣

Deficit since 2021.

780 million oz already drawn down from above-ground stocks.

No rebuilding in sight.
Metals Focus predicts another deficit for 2026.
The system is bleeding ounces.
7️⃣

James Anderson (SD Bullion):

“Silver has been systemically suppressed.
We’re witnessing the unraveling of that old pricing system.
$50 silver will become support for triple-digit silver.”
8️⃣
He predicts:

💥 $60–70/oz by end of year possible.
💥 $100+ within 1–2 years likely.
Silver will follow gold’s rerating — and shock the world.
9️⃣

“London created this mess.

For decades it was an insider club.
Now it’s unraveling in real time.
When this blows up, the world will finally see how fake the ‘free market’ really was.” — J. Anderson
1⃣0️⃣

Fear of missing out is spreading.
Global bullion dealers report one of the strongest buying months in history.
People are moving from digital illusions to physical truth.
1⃣1️⃣

Gold already doubled since 2020.

Jamie Dimon now mentions $10 000 gold as “reasonable.”
If gold rerates, silver follows — fast.
Ratio 79:1 won’t last.
1⃣2️⃣

“A kilo of silver costs like an iPhone.

Everyone can afford one.

In 5 years, its value will shock you.”
— J. Anderson
1⃣3️⃣

Silver has broken records in 158 of 163 currencies.

Only five fiat “bosses” remain — CHF among them.
Physical stackers are winning the long game.
1⃣4️⃣

We are in the 5th consecutive year of deficit.
Shorts are running out of time.

Industry is competing with investors for the same ounces.
Tick… tock…
1⃣5️⃣

Silver is no longer just a monetary metal.
It’s critical infrastructure — powering EVs, solar, AI, defense, and medical tech.

This time, the shortage isn’t speculative. It’s existential.
1⃣
“Silver’s rocket fuel is ready.
We’re sitting on a launch pad.”
And the countdown has begun. ⏳

#SilverSqueeze #SilverCrisis2025 #StackerLogic #PhysicalOnly #SilverStackers #Gold #COMEX #LBMA #India #CriticalMineral #EndGame
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More from @honzacern1

Oct 21
🧵 THREAD: The SLV Paradox 🥈📉
“How can 8.7M oz added to SLV lead to a 5% drop in silver price?”

Let’s break it down. 👇
1️⃣
SLV ETF Alert:
➡️ 9.65 million new shares created today
➡️ 8.7 million ounces supposedly delivered into SLV
➡️ New high for the year in shares outstanding

Sounds bullish, right? More demand = higher price?
Not on the paper market.
2️⃣
On the very same day, silver crashed −5.5%.
From $52.39 → $49.50.

So how can the biggest “delivery” of the year cause the sharpest price drop?
Because most of that silver never moved.
Read 10 tweets
Oct 21
🧵 THREAD:

“China’s silver vaults are draining fast.” 🐉🥈

1️⃣
Shanghai Gold Exchange just reported another 57 tons of silver withdrawn last week.

That’s 1.83 million ounces gone — in one week.

SGE inventories dropped from 1 108 t → 1 050 t, approaching the 1 000 t mark for the first time in years.
2️⃣
For perspective:

if this pace continues (−50 t per week), China’s vaults could dip below 1 000 t by mid-November.

That would mark one of the lowest levels since 2020, when supply chains were shattered and premiums exploded across Asia.
3️⃣
Why it matters:

When physical silver drains from Chinese vaults, it usually signals tightness in the real market — not paper.

Industrial demand (solar, electronics) and investor buying are both pulling from the same pool.
And that pool is shrinking.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 20
🧵 Thread

1️⃣
Silver ETF borrow costs just went parabolic.
• SIVR: 17.5% fee, ~100k shares available
• SLV: 18.85% fee, ~1,000,000 shares available

#SilverSqueeze #StackerLogic Image
2️⃣
High borrow fee = scarcity signal.

It happens when float gets locked or creation units slow/stop.

Either way → less metal behind the curtain, more friction for shorts.
HTB ≠ normal market structure — it’s stress.
3️⃣
Price action confirms it: SIVR ripped from ~$25 → ~$49 in months and refuses to break down.

Borrow fee screamed first, price followed.

This is how squeezes start — with shortage, not headlines. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 20
🧵 Vault of Last Resort: why stackers won’t back down (not now)

1️⃣ Something cracked in early October.

London (LBMA) suddenly ran thirsty for physical, and had to be “rescued” by emergency silver inflows from the US and partly from Asia.

That’s not normal — that’s an SOS signal.Image
2️⃣ When London dries up, the world reaches for COMEX — the Vault of Last Resort.

But that vault isn’t bottomless either.

The free float silver (the truly available stock) keeps shrinking.
3️⃣ Reality check: silver is flowing — not vanishing, but moving where it’s needed.

Part went to London, part straight to industry and investors.

Paper can pretend. Physical can’t.
Read 10 tweets
Oct 20
🧵 THREAD:

“China isn’t saving London. It’s buying time.” 🥈🐉

1️⃣
Reuters says tons of silver from the US & China “eased” the London spot market squeeze.
They call it relief.
We call it a warning. Image
1️⃣.1️⃣

When metal has to fly across oceans just to keep the market alive, something deeper is breaking. ✈️🥈
2️⃣
Roughly 1,000 tons of silver were airlifted to London.
Deliveries by plane — normally reserved for gold — show how desperate things got.

You don’t spend that kind of money on logistics unless shelves are empty and confidence is fading.
Read 10 tweets
Oct 19
1️⃣
Most major bullion dealers are now brutally sold out.

Shelves empty, premiums rising.
The real question: how long can they hold on? 🤭🥈 Image
2️⃣
Dealers operate on tiny margins (3–8%) and fast inventory turnover.
They’re not warehouses — they’re flow pipes.

Once the flow stops, cashflow stops too.
3️⃣
When supply collapses, the dominoes fall in order:

1️⃣ Stop buying back from customers
2️⃣ Offer pre-orders with “floating” prices
3️⃣ Raise premiums
4️⃣ Shut down online stores temporarily
Read 11 tweets

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