Honza Černý Profile picture
Oct 19 17 tweets 2 min read Read on X
🧵 SILVER MARKET CRISIS 2025 — “THE UNRAVELING”

1️⃣
London is out of silver.

Even Metals Focus (LBMA consultancy) admits:

“Short-term lease rates surged to 200%...

backwardation at record highs... shortage of unallocated metal in London.”

Unprecedented.

2️⃣

83% of all silver in London vaults is now locked inside ETFs.

Fully allocated.

➡️ Meaning: it can’t be leased, traded, or used to settle industrial or COMEX obligations.
Paper silver can’t find metal.
3️⃣

LBMA needs 150 million oz to restore “normality.”
That’s 88% of the entire COMEX registered vault silver.
Let that sink in.

To defend sub-$60 silver, London must airlift U.S. silver — by chartered planes.
4️⃣

The squeeze is global:
🇮🇳 India’s festival season triggered a buying stampede.

Refineries ran out of stock.
Premiums hit record highs.
26 million oz imported in September — with more coming.
Silver is vanishing.
5️⃣

Meanwhile, U.S. COMEX vaults are drained.

CME stocks down 19 million oz from peak.

Tariff fears, refinery bottlenecks, and lack of high-grade recycling keep inventories tight.
This is not a one-off event. It’s structural.
6️⃣

Deficit since 2021.

780 million oz already drawn down from above-ground stocks.

No rebuilding in sight.
Metals Focus predicts another deficit for 2026.
The system is bleeding ounces.
7️⃣

James Anderson (SD Bullion):

“Silver has been systemically suppressed.
We’re witnessing the unraveling of that old pricing system.
$50 silver will become support for triple-digit silver.”
8️⃣
He predicts:

💥 $60–70/oz by end of year possible.
💥 $100+ within 1–2 years likely.
Silver will follow gold’s rerating — and shock the world.
9️⃣

“London created this mess.

For decades it was an insider club.
Now it’s unraveling in real time.
When this blows up, the world will finally see how fake the ‘free market’ really was.” — J. Anderson
1⃣0️⃣

Fear of missing out is spreading.
Global bullion dealers report one of the strongest buying months in history.
People are moving from digital illusions to physical truth.
1⃣1️⃣

Gold already doubled since 2020.

Jamie Dimon now mentions $10 000 gold as “reasonable.”
If gold rerates, silver follows — fast.
Ratio 79:1 won’t last.
1⃣2️⃣

“A kilo of silver costs like an iPhone.

Everyone can afford one.

In 5 years, its value will shock you.”
— J. Anderson
1⃣3️⃣

Silver has broken records in 158 of 163 currencies.

Only five fiat “bosses” remain — CHF among them.
Physical stackers are winning the long game.
1⃣4️⃣

We are in the 5th consecutive year of deficit.
Shorts are running out of time.

Industry is competing with investors for the same ounces.
Tick… tock…
1⃣5️⃣

Silver is no longer just a monetary metal.
It’s critical infrastructure — powering EVs, solar, AI, defense, and medical tech.

This time, the shortage isn’t speculative. It’s existential.
1⃣
“Silver’s rocket fuel is ready.
We’re sitting on a launch pad.”
And the countdown has begun. ⏳

#SilverSqueeze #SilverCrisis2025 #StackerLogic #PhysicalOnly #SilverStackers #Gold #COMEX #LBMA #India #CriticalMineral #EndGame
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More from @honzacern1

Oct 19
🧵 The Mother of All Silver Covering Rallies — 2025 Edition

1️⃣ Remember February 2024?

Funds (Managed Money) sat on a $1 billion net short in silver futures.

Swap Dealers quietly flipped long.

Fast-forward to October 2025 → India sold out. London panicking.

That setup just detonated. 🥈⚡

Thanks to @profitsplusidImage
2️⃣ India breaks first 🇮🇳

MMTC-PAMP — the country’s largest refiner — ran completely out of silver for the first time ever.

Festive demand + industrial pull = retail shelves empty, premiums surging, ETFs restricting new subscriptions.

When India runs dry, global flows shake.
3️⃣ London dislocation 🇬🇧

The 1 000 oz bar market seized up.
Lease rates spiked to > 30 % (some reports show intraday > 100 %).

NY futures traded below London spot — pure backwardation.

Physical supply is tight where it matters most.
Read 12 tweets
Oct 19
1️⃣ China is SOLD OUT.
In Yongxing, Hunan — the “Silver Capital” of China, producing ~¼ of the nation’s silver — most shops are completely out of investment silver.

Price per kilo jumped from 8,000 RMB → 13,000+ RMB.

That’s nearly +70% YTD. 🥈🇨🇳 Image
2️⃣ This isn’t some local rumor.

Yongxing is the hub of China’s silver mining, refining, and trading.

When the source region itself reports empty shelves, it means one thing —⚠️ pressure across the entire chain from the mine to the final buyer.
3️⃣ Step-by-step logic:

Mining → Refining → Allocation (industry vs. retail).
When industry (solar, electronics) pulls harder,
👉 retail dries up
👉 premiums rise
👉 and the paper price stops reflecting reality.
Read 13 tweets
Oct 19
🧵 Thread: How the silver market broke (2025 edition)

1. The calm before the storm

The global silver market had already been under strain for years. According to one analysis, from 2021 onward demand exceeded supply by ~678 million ounces.

Silver is unlike gold: much of its supply comes as a by-product of mining other metals. So it doesn’t respond as quickly to price signals.

On the demand side: industrial uses (especially solar power) are growing. Silver is used in photovoltaic cells, electronics etc.

On the investor side: With global uncertainty, inflation, weak dollar talk, precious metals were increasingly in focus.

So we had a market that was already stretched — then the spark hit.Image
Image
Image
2. India says: “Let’s load up on silver for the goddess”

In India, investors and consumers shifted part of their traditional festival buying away from gold → silver. Why? Because gold had run up so high, and people were looking for the next leg (and the social-media push on silver was strong).

One quoted dealer in India said: “I have never seen these kind of premiums … people who are dealing silver and silver coins, they’re literally out of stock.”

Premiums in India on silver above international rates, which are normally minimal, started climbing. Indian imports of silver fell ~42% in 2025 through August, even as demand surged.

Brown-note sarcasm: Yes, you heard it right — instead of “I’ll buy gold this festive season,” many went “Hmm, silver’s the under-dog, let’s go silver.” The under-dog turned into the scarce-dog.
3. The supply-chain & global arbitrage got squeezed

As India and others clambered for physical metal, supply chains began creaking. One big point: physical inventories in the global hubs (particularly London) fell dangerously.

One key condition: Although large amounts of silver exist in warehouses (e.g., in New York), not all of it is immediately deliverable to the points of demand (London, India).

So you could have “tons of silver” but still a shortage of usable supply.

Example: Leasing or borrowing silver in London became wildly expensive because metal was simply not available to lend. One commentator says overnight borrowing rates spiked. Business Standard+1

The perfect storm ingredients:

Festival demand in India
Industrial demand (solar etc)
Investment demand (ETFs, hedge funds)
Limited physical supply + logistical delays → large premiums and shortages
Read 11 tweets
Oct 18
🧵 THREAD:

“No COT? No problem. The Silver War doesn’t need their numbers anymore.”

1️⃣
The U.S. government is in shutdown.
CFTC reports are frozen.
No COT. No Bank Participation. No transparency.
The paper world just went blind. 👀 Image
2️⃣
But here’s the thing — stackers don’t need their data.
We see what’s happening every day:

Vaults draining.

ETF inflows.

Registered bars disappearing.

Premiums rising.
👉 The battlefield speaks louder than the reports.
3️⃣
When the numbers go dark, the truth comes to light.
And that truth is silver leaving the system — one real ounce at a time. 🪙⚡
Read 9 tweets
Oct 17
1️⃣ Is there a bigger problem than ZERO “free float” in London?
JPM could “fix” it on paper — without moving a single ounce of silver.
But they don’t. Why? 🧵👇
@KingKong9888 @pmbug Image
2️⃣ About 86% of all silver in London is locked inside ETFs/ETCs — mostly SLV.
SLV holds 12,213t in London and 3,209t in NY (Comex).
All within JPM’s vaults.
In theory, JPM could shift some SLV shares from London to NY
and instantly free up silver in London.
Yet they keep it tight
3️⃣
Most silver in NY might be held in customer accounts, not JPM’s own “house” stock meaning it can’t be pledged to SLV.
And since silver was recently added to the U.S. strategic mineral list, those clients probably don’t want their silver “transferred” to London anyway.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 15
🧵 THREAD | Real Ratios Don’t Lie — Silver Is 10× Undervalued

They say Gold/Silver ratio is 80:1.
But that’s just paper math.
Let’s see what happens when we use real data — assuming gold = $4,200/oz.

SPECIAL THANKS TO @RoadtoRoota FOR KICKOFF
📊1. Market Price (80:1)
Paper says silver = $52.50/oz.
That’s the illusion — detached from physical reality.
🏦 2. Physical Available (0.79:1)
Bars, coins, ETFs.

Real silver available for investment is actually scarcer than gold.

At this ratio, silver could easily justify a four-digit price under real scarcity.
Read 10 tweets

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