Crémieux Profile picture
Oct 19 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Boobtech is amazing.

It's an area that the rest of medicine could look to as an example.

The professionals making bigger, more realistic breast implants are simultaneously improving affordability, safety, and quality at a rapid rate🧵 Image
Consider one of the most recent improvements in boobtech: the Mia.

The Mia is the first successful "injectable" breast implant.

It cuts down scarring, complications, surgery time and cost, and it looks and feels more realistic than earlier implants. Image
The Mia is installed with a small armpit incision about 2 centimeters in length.

This is a significant reduction from earlier generations, which were regularly closer to 7 centimeters, or almost 3 inches. Image
After incision, a pocket is created with a custom balloon tool designed by the creators of the Mia, Establishment Labs

This approach is done without having to put the woman under. Only local anesthetic used, which reduces surgical complication rates, exposure to anesthesia, etc. Image
Finally, with another custom tool, the implant is inserted into the pocket, pulled up, and done.

The total procedure time is 15 minutes. The total time in office averages about 90 minutes, including doctor preparation, patient briefing, and so on. Image
And you're done!

You can go back to your daily activities next day. There's a minimal recovery, and there's minimal follow-on side effects

In fact, though traditional breast implants lead to somewhere between 6-13% rupture rates and 15% contracture, the Mia's first trial saw 0!Image
The Mia includes an optional non-ferromagnetic RFID sensor that can hold patient device info for peace of mind.

The Mia isn't even the best out there!

Preservé preserves more breast tissue and the implant it's paired with gives women a fuller upper-breast (frequently desired). Image
The implant it's used with delivers fractions of the typical complication rate, for a much gentler surgery, with a much more realistic feeling, greater patient comfort, an easy recovery, and so on.

It is an amazing advance in boobtech. Image
The biomaterial it's made from also minimizes immune reactions to implantation.

This was a feat of biomedical engineering generated by exploring material options and winding up with something that really just works! Image
And there are already other boobtech improvements in the pipeline! I could go on, but won't.

I want to talk about why boobtech is so advanced.

I think it has to do with three things.

The first is the much lower regulatory burdens compared to trad pharma.
Low regulatory burden benefits make sense, so I'll explain the second thing:

A higher out-of-pocket share.

Plastic surgery is often not covered by insurers. It's aesthetic, optional, etc. Patients cannot tolerate massive cost inflation if they have to pay it, so they don't!Image
And finally, plastic surgery attracts some of the smartest doctors

The smartest doctors in a given year tend to be either dermatologists or plastic surgeons, because those disciplines tend to offer more work-life balance

They're not high-pressure, but they still reward highly Image
In fact, I think these tie into why aesthetic procedures are generally high-performing when it comes to price, innovations, etc.

Just look at how they compare to inflation in general and inflation in medicine more broadly.

They're great! Image
Aesthetic procedures are a model for how medicine ought to work

Not entirely, but at least partly

There should be room for new tech paid for by patients; room for docs to train with tech and implement rapidly all the time

There should be more room for progress and big breasts!

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Oct 18
This should be considered *far* more alarming than the polls about political violence.

Two-thirds positive views towards an evil ideology that has killed tens of millions and cannot work is *very* bad. Image
It doesn't really matter if, at the end of the day, they're actually tepid towards socialism. This is like 66% of people saying Hitler was OK.

Source: news.gallup.com/poll/694835/im…

And an article qualifying how we understand support for political violence: cremieux.xyz/p/lets-not-ove…
I get too many dumb comments.

The dumb comment for this post is going to be something along the lines of 'But they're thinking about [successful place] not [bad place]!'

Ten points if you realize why that is not a meaningful reply.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 17
This is not true and there has never been a reason to believe it.

When we do have raw data for anywhere, we see that there's consistent scoring over time, not massive intelligence gains.

If we do not take measurement invariance seriously, we will be seriously misled. Image
I actually think it is exactly Noah's sort of post that helps to keep the culture of scientific fraud in academia and elsewhere alive.

Noah is smart enough and has been told enough to know better, and he still wrote something that he can't support.

But it's a popular message.
The message is just empirically wrong.

Will we ever move beyond the Cargo Cult version of the Flynn Effect that people like Noah, knowingly or otherwise, are wont to promote?

I don't think we will!

To learn more, see:
Read 5 tweets
Oct 14
Where did that human capital go?

After the Counter-Reformation began, Protestant Germany started producing more elites than Catholic Germany.

Protestant cities also attracted more of these elite individuals, but primarily to the places with the most progressive governments🧵Image
Q: What am I talking about?

A: Kirchenordnung, or Church Orders, otherwise known as Protestant Church Ordinances, a sort of governmental compact that started cropping up after the Reformation, in Protestant cities. Image
Q: Why these things?

A: Protestants wanted to establish political institutions in their domains that replaced those previously provided by the Catholics, or which otherwise departed from how things were done. Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 7
What predicts a successful educational intervention?

Unfortunately, the answer is not 'methodological propriety'; in fact, it's the opposite🧵

First up: home-made measures, a lack of randomization, and a study being published instead of unpublished predict larger effects. Image
It is *far* easier to cook the books with an in-house measure, and it's far harder for other researchers to evaluate what's going on because they definitionally cannot be familiar with it.

Additionally, smaller studies tend to have larger effects—a hallmark of publication bias! Image
Education, like many fields, clearly has a bias towards significant results.

Notice the extreme excess of results with p-values that are 'just significant'.

The pattern we see above should make you suspect if you realize this is happening. Image
Read 10 tweets
Oct 6
Across five different large samples, the same pattern emerged:

Trans people tended to have multiple times higher rates of autism. Image
In addition to higher autism rates, when looking at non-autistic trans versus non-trans people, the trans people were consistently shifted towards showing more autistic traits. Image
In two of the available datasets, the autism result replicated across other psychiatric traits.

That is, trans people were also at an elevated risk of ADHD, bipolar disorder, depression, OCD, and schizophrenia, before and after making various adjustments. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 6
Across 68,000 meta-analyses including over 700,000 effect size estimates, correcting for publication bias tended to:

- Markedly reduce effect sizes
- Markedly reduce the probability that there is an effect at all

Economics hardest hit: Image
Even this is perhaps too generous.

Recall that correcting for publication bias often produces effects that are still larger than the effects attained in subsequent large-scale replication studies.Image
A great example of this comes from priming studies.

Remember money priming, where simply seeing or handling money made people more selfish and better at business?

Those studies were stricken by publication bias, but preregistered studies totally failed to find a thing. Image
Read 6 tweets

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