1/ Russian 'grey imports' to support the war effort are facing a crisis, following simultaneous crackdowns by Chinese, Kazakh and Russian customs officials. Thousands of truckloads of drone parts and medical supplies are said to be stuck at the border. ⬇️ 
2/ Much of the frontline Russian army's supplies comes from 'humanitarian aid' organised by volunteer groups, who purchase supplies from Chinese companies and ship it overland to Russia – either directly across the Chinese border or via Kazakhstan, which is cheaper.
3/ However, multiple Russian warbloggers say that the customs services of all three countries have cracked down on grey imports, for differing reasons. They warn that this threatens a crisis for the front lines, and the loss of many Russian soldiers' lives.
4/ 'Doctors, you are not alone' – which buys and distributes medical supplies for the front – writes on its Telegram channel:
5/ "It's been 5 weeks since I was somewhere at customs in the Samara region / to customs / after customs / at storage warehouses. There are thousands (!!) of trucks loaded with cargo from China.
6/ "Let me clarify: I'll label rumours with a smiley face👂 [sic]. We weren't directly involved ourselves, but rumours are all we were left with.
So, this is what has been stuck here for over a month now:
🔸20,000 bandages
🔸5,000 first aid pouches
🔸10,000 tourniquets
So, this is what has been stuck here for over a month now:
🔸20,000 bandages
🔸5,000 first aid pouches
🔸10,000 tourniquets
7/ 🔸10,000 atraumatic scissors
🔸2,000 abdominal bandages
🔸15,000 gauze Z-bandages
🔸2,500 nasopharyngeal airways
🔸300 backpacks
🔸And other little things like bandages, clamps, etc.
🔸2,000 abdominal bandages
🔸15,000 gauze Z-bandages
🔸2,500 nasopharyngeal airways
🔸300 backpacks
🔸And other little things like bandages, clamps, etc.
8/ "Did you consider yourself a monster of volunteer planning with an inexhaustible stockpile of necessary supplies lasting a month? Well, there you have it. And not just you (me, too).
9/ "My fellow volunteers have Starlinks, circuit boards, radios, fabric, and other things in stock for the same month plus.
The rumour mill has been full of all sorts of things this month: this was before the negotiations with [Kazakh President] Tokayev:
The rumour mill has been full of all sorts of things this month: this was before the negotiations with [Kazakh President] Tokayev:
10/ "– This is not being caused by ours, it's the Kazakhs. 👂
– This is not being caused by the Kazakhs, it's ours, because trucks stop 60 km after the border. 👂
– This is not being caused by the Kazakhs, it's ours, because trucks stop 60 km after the border. 👂
11/ "– This is to kill cargo imports and force everyone to import through the regular customs system, 👂 they are looking for drones and their components👂, the trucks with white cargo are also stationary,👂etc.
12/ "If we were to list ALL the rumours surrounding this transport and customs collapse, we'd be forgiven for believing in an interplanetary conspiracy.
The consequences of the collapse specifically for "Doctors, You Are Not Alone":
The consequences of the collapse specifically for "Doctors, You Are Not Alone":
13/ "1️⃣ We're already buying what we need in Moscow at prices as high as double. For example, we used to bring bandages from China for 120-135 rubles, but this week we had to buy 5,000 at 240 rubles.
14/ "Do I need to explain what happens when you can only buy for twice the price? Miracles don't happen—you'll just end up buying half as many.
15/ "2️⃣ Starting 27 October, we'll be forced to stop stocking first aid kits and backpacks entirely, because we've already taken everything we had from Moscow's resellers. And the idea that some people will die without our help—well, that's a big deal.
16/ "3️⃣ Can we quickly switch to Russian equivalents? The short answer is no. But if you want the long answer, some things aren't produced here at all, some are made from imported raw materials (which are also stuck in traffic in the Samara region), some are produced…
17/ …at inhumane prices, and in some places there's not enough capacity.
18/ "It's difficult for us ordinary people to judge such lofty matters as the causes of such an artificially induced collapse. Maybe we need to collect more duties for the budget. Maybe we need to find all sorts of illegal and dangerous things.
19/ "Maybe there are a dozen other reasons we can't even think of. I honestly don't know.
20/ "But what I do know is that in a country at war and dependent on imports, you can't do such a blunt act. Because the consequences of such decisions are measured not only in money but also in the lives of very real people."
21/ The channel appeals to the Russian government to provide easier access for defence-related cargoes and to not make changes to customs arrangements without looking "through the prism of their impact on the combat readiness of our army."
22/ 'HEALER' is in similar dire straits and says it is having a direct impact on the front:
23/ "Hey, we've got thousands of messages from the front lines, from combat units, in our feed. We're gradually helping everyone, but unfortunately, starting today, we're temporarily halting all shipments and transfers of our medical supplies.
24/ "This is due to some bullshit going on at the border, and the fucking trucks carrying tons of our junk can't cross from China into Russia. I don't know who's to blame or what's going on, but it'll be a serious blow to the front lines if we hold back our aid for even a month."
25/ The drone-supplying group '26th copter' says there are similar problems affecting the import of drones and drone parts:
"A comment on the situation with the transportation of Chinese goods across the border. For those unfamiliar, there are major and common problems."
"A comment on the situation with the transportation of Chinese goods across the border. For those unfamiliar, there are major and common problems."
26/ "We're sharing this with you so you can draw the necessary conclusions, adjust your purchases, and have a general understanding of what's going on. There will be a lot of text.
27/ "1. Everything that was grey imported through Kazakhstan (the cheapest and fastest route) is stuck at the border. According to reports from the field, the backlog is around 1,000 trucks and has been building for about a month.
28/ "The Kazakhs suddenly stopped allowing all gray cargo through (and dual-use goods, including all sorts of parts and other FPV-related items, are exactly that). The reasons are most likely political.
29/ "There are reports that this movement is being orchestrated with some assistance from the US.
30/ "2. Our customs officials have also begun conducting thorough searches with mobile teams. If grey cargo falls under such a campaign, it doesn't pass. The reason seems to be a certain misunderstanding by the structure called "customs" of the situation with frontline supplies.
31/ "3. China has tightened controls on grey cargo.
It would seem that everything should be shipped as officially as possible, and the problems would be solved.
It would seem that everything should be shipped as officially as possible, and the problems would be solved.
32/ "But, in addition to a 30-50% increase in production costs (and, I think, approximately double the selling price), we have a situation where "dual-use" goods (read: those used in the Northeast Asian region) are not being shipped legally. Absolutely not.
33/ "China as a country is afraid of potential problems with the US, and Chinese sellers are afraid of secondary sanctions and getting their ass kicked by their own government.
34/ "To summarise, we expect a certain shortage of dual-use goods at least until this issue is resolved, plus a time lag until everything gets back to normal. The Kazakhstan option may not even be an option. Points 2 and 3 seem quite solvable.
35/ "Advice: If you have a high need for such products, buy them now and stock up (especially if prices are still within a reasonable range). Things could get much worse and more expensive later. We are monitoring the situation and will keep you updated." /end
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