VolSignals Profile picture
Oct 20 8 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Gamma defines how markets behave,
not which direction they'll move

When dealers are net short options that creates 'negative Gamma'

instead of providing liquidity we have to buy into rising markets and sell into declines
When dealers are net long options that creates 'positive Gamma'

we sell rallies and buy dips-
this is the norm for modern markets
It's common for markets to have EXTREME positive Gamma

but very uncommon for markets to have EXTREME negative Gamma

why?
When customers sell us options, we mark implied vols lower

All things equal, when you lower the implied volatility of an option, the amount of Gamma it has goes UP

...think about that-
When customers are selling us options-

we are:
1 - getting long lots of options (more positive gamma)
2 - lowering the implied volatility of the options we are long (even MORE positive gamma)
When customers are buying options from us-

we are:
1 - getting short lots of options (more negative gamma)
2 - raising the implied volatility of the options we are short (this REDUCES the gamma per option)
Read the last two tweets again-

there's an embedded asymmetry in the impact which options can have on the market, from a practical perspective

of course, at times, we are locally short lots of low volatility options and negative Gamma can be extreme
but most of the time the market will benefit from how MMs price options in accordance with inventories

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More from @VolSignals

Oct 20
You're About to Realize
What Options Have Been Implying this Whole Time

What if the glue holding markets together just expired?

[full newsletter]
October OPEX is behind us.

We must be out of the woods, right?

Not so fast. Positions create hedging requirements.

These are literal, to a degree.
This is the basis for how I view markets— it arises directly from my experience hedging large positions as an index MM.

When we want to know what short-term options tell us about the market, we look at positions through a combined lens involving two main "Greeks," or risks:
Read 26 tweets
Sep 21
OPEX Week Price Action Review x.com/i/spaces/1mnGe…
Image
Image
Read 11 tweets
Sep 16
Yesterday we saw a very unlikely pin scenario at a massive dealer short position

the chart below via Spotgamma shows 0DTE net inventory (sum of put & call held by dealers) going into the close

Why is pinning a dealer short unlikely?

...it has to do with our hedging

(thread) Image
We are hedging Delta.

More specifically though, we are hedging CHANGES in our Delta.

To understand where these changes come from,
focus on 3 core Greeks:

✓ Gamma
✓ Charm
✓ Vanna

When it comes to 0DTE options, the first two-
Gamma & Charm-
are in the driver's seat.
Greeks become hyper-local at the end of an option's life.

In layman's terms...

When spot price is NEAR the expiring option:

✓ Gamma goes way up
✓ Delta begins to race to 0 or 100 (Charm accelerates)
Read 8 tweets
Aug 30
Shallow month-end dip,
but risk perking up (thread)

NOTABLE FLOWS
IB WHALE

Oct-31 6200-6400 PS
>> Buys 35k ES, 9k SPX

Nov 6200-6400 PS
>> Buys 25k ES, 5k SPX

( = 26.5k & 17.5k SPX respectively)

...then buys ES 10/31 6100-6200 PS 35k
to convert ES Oct-31 into 6100-6400 PS
JPM Collar rebalance for end of Nov

Nov-28 5150-6115 Put Spread
vs. 6755 Call

Customer Buys 4,350x Put Spread Collars

*trades with Aug29th 6210 Call 2k (0DTE hedge)

Pays $50,871,000 — no rebalance necessary
VIX Oct 31 Call
>> Cust. buys 133.5k for ~.90

Drove VVIX up modestly during the afternoon Friday

Chart below via Bloomberg- Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 29
Will it strike again?
Feb 29 2024 Image
May 31 2024 Image
Aug 30 2024 Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 20
Welcome to VIXPIRY

pin prediction from Monday looking prescient thus far

image 1 - screenshot from VS Pro intraday commentary
image 2 - UXQ5 overnight price action (expiring future)

what's in store today?

(a thread) Image
Image
VIX options pin, too.

More complicated, and the knock-on effects are harder to understand

but the process here is fundamentally the same

What happens this morning?

>> the AUGUST VIX future expires

settlement value is based on the opening prices of SEPTEMBER SPX OPTIONS
There's a literal calculation here which gives us our value- no ambiguity.

The process involves heavy option trading at the open

this isn't manipulation - just ask DRW's Don Wilson

it's a legitimate process to unwind hedge inventory and basis trades, AND there's real risk Image
Read 13 tweets

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