Simon Taylor Profile picture
Oct 20, 2025 1 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Nubank went from launching in Mexico in 2020 to 12 million customers by mid-2025. Now they're applying for a US bank charter.

Can they repeat the trick?

Most people see Nubank as a Brazil story.

But Mexico is the untold story—and it reveals how they actually win.

---

Here's what matters:

- Monthly ARPAC: ~$11 (more mature cohorts at $25)
- Cost to serve: $0.80 per customer
- Customer acquisition cost: ~$5-6 (80% organic through word-of-mouth)
- Activity rate: 83%+
- Efficiency ratio: sub-30% (vs 50%+ for traditional banks)

Mexico specifically:
- 10M customers as of Jan 2025 (12M by July)
- Doubled customer base in 12 months
- Now serving 25% of Mexico's banked population
- 3rd largest in credit cards issued
~50% of customers got their first credit card from Nubank

Full banking license approved April 2025

---

The US expansion is real:
- Applied for OCC national charter Sept 2025
- Cristina Junqueira (co-founder) relocated full-time to lead it
- 122M+ customers across Brazil, Mexico, Colombia as the foundation for remittances

---

What traditional bank CEOs miss:

They see Nubank's "single global platform" and "single data platform" and try to copy it.

They get the what.

They miss the how.

- It's not abstracting mainframes and calling it "global."
- It's not forcing one data model on every market.

It's:
- 100% cloud-native from day one
- Custom data pipelines for credit models and personalization
- Product-market fit first, scale second
- Credit cards before checking accounts (the hardest vertical first)
- 80-90% customers acquired through referrals, not paid marketing
- 60% of customers use Nubank as primary bank
- Capital discipline — <5% of revenue on marketing, 4x that on R&D

---

The US market is brutally competitive.

But Nubank's Mexico playbook shows something rare: unit economics that improve in new markets.

Mexico's customer engagement and revenue curves grew faster than Brazil at the same maturity stage.

That's what happens when you arrive with battle-tested tech, proven risk models, and a decade of learning compressed into the launch.

The real question isn't whether Nubank can compete in the US.

It's whether US incumbents are ready for a competitor that knows how to build a bank for 122 million customers while spending $0.80 to serve each one.

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More from @sytaylor

Jan 2
The @kontigo_app vs Checkbook & JP Morgan drama is pure 🍿.

I wanted to give it some context. Because the claim of "banking system is evil and outdated" is simply wrong and lacks context.

Here's what I think is really going on
JP Morgan closed accounts for crypto startups Kontigo and Blindpay

The information reported that the account freezes were linked to business activity in high-risk regions, including Venezuela, and to gaps in customer identity checks.

From Tradeweb: “JPMorgan acted after seeing rising disputed transactions and chargebacks tied to these accounts. The bank said the decision was based on risk controls, not opposition to stablecoins themselves.”
To understand this, there are a few things we need to unpack:

🧠 There are three players here. Checkbook, JP Morgan, and the start-ups themselves.

- JPM banks Checkbook.
- Checkbook "banks" Kontigo.
- Kontigo serves the End User.
Read 13 tweets
Dec 23, 2025
🚨 JUST IN: @Shift4 just launched stablecoin settlement for hundreds of thousands of merchants.

Merchants can get paid in USDC, USDT, EURC, or DAI 24/7

Instead of waiting for bank transfers - OR paying a fee (like 1%) for an advance.

Here's why it matters 🧵 Image
Shift 4 is a major PSP.

- They process billions of transactions a year.
- $200B+ in payment volume.
- Segments like restaurants, hotels, stadiums, retail.

Not all of those merchants are familiar with stablecoins.

But the ability to get paid faster will make many of them curious.

And that expands the TAM of stablecoins.
Why stablecoins for merchant settlement?

Right now, if you're a merchant and you want your money faster than the standard 2-3 day window, you pay for it.

Square charges 1-1.5% for instant payouts.

PayPal has similar fees.

Everyone does.

Stablecoins settle in seconds. Around the clock. Weekends and holidays included.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 21, 2025
The State of Fintech 2026:

Nubank: 127m customers
Klarna: 114m
Revolut: 65m

A handful of companies now have more users than most countries have people.

We've entered the Age of the Fintech Hyperscaler.

🧵 What I learned writing the annual report with @jevgenijs Image
AI assisted 1 in 6 purchases this Black Friday.

It showed in the data for the first time.

But here's the uncomfortable truth:

Almost no fintech has an industry-specific foundation model driving earnings.

Stripe is the only example I found.

The rest is still vibes.Image
Image
Stablecoins found product-market fit.

Not as "bank killers."

As cross-border rails and corporate treasury tools.

The use case that won: payouts and pay-ins for businesses tired of correspondent banking.

Boring? Yes. Working? Also yes. Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 21, 2025
Huge moment for Agentic Commerce.

EMVCo (the technical body behind Visa, Mastercard, Amex) is creating global standards for "agentic payments."

This is the biggest change in card payments since "tap to pay"

Here's how it works 🧵 Image
Right now, AI agents are phenomenal at finding things to buy.

- Power users are starting to default to their research
- Can compare complex options and summarize
- And when people click through conversion is 2x to 5x higher

But...
There's no agreed way for payment to happen

- There's countless protocols
- x402 for agents accessing other tools
- ACP and A2P from Open AI and Google
- Visa and Mastercard have their own approaches
Read 11 tweets
Nov 12, 2025
JPMorgan clients can now swap JPMD for USDC on Base.

That sentence should break the internet.

JP Morgan payments moves $ trillions PER DAY

It dwarfs the entire stablecoin industry.

This is how 1000x more dollars go onchain 🧵Image
Picture the actual flow:

- A JPMorgan institutional client holds JPMD (bank deposit token).
- They need to transact with a Coinbase customer holding USDC (stablecoin).

A corporation could

1. Move JPM Coin from JPM closed loop to Base
2. Swap JPM Coin for USDC
3. Receive USDC in their base wallet
4. Send that USDC to a 3rd party, or swap it for another bank deposit token
This is the baby step towards going open loop.

Banks have tokenized deposits in closed loop

- Citi
- HSBC
- Deutsche
- JP Morgan

But now those walls have doors that open onto public blockchain rails.

Base becomes the trading floor where closed systems meet open ones.
Read 8 tweets
Oct 8, 2025
Biggest story in stablecoins nobody noticed

Alipay, the mobile payments wallet with 1 billion users, will launch a EURO Stablecoin BREUR, to the European market

They're only the second to be listed by the European Regulator ESMA.

This is HUGE for reasons you're missing 🧵
Alipay has over 1 billion active consumers

It is a digital wallet and "superapp" for online and in-store payments

Also does financial services like investments and wealth management.

Why are they so early to Euro stables?
Here's what everyone missed

Alipay went live with tokenized FX between EUR, GBP and USD at

- HSBC
- Citi
- JP Morgan

They're pushing their banks hard

And they have their own blockchain Ant Chain
Read 5 tweets

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