Russia is preparing a large-scale bond issue.
Today, news broke that the Russian Ministry of Finance has registered five new bond issues with a nominal value of 4.25 trillion rubles.
Explanation:
To cover the budget deficit, the Ministry of Finance needs funds. The Ministry 1/
issues bonds and sells them on the market, with the proceeds going to the budget to cover the deficit.
But the problem is that it's impossible to borrow such huge sums on the Russian market.
To do this, the Central Bank issues repo agreements to banks secured by OFZs, so that
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the banks can use these funds to buy OFZs again. This is essentially an ISSUE (printing money without any backing). Since, under Ru law, the Central Bank of Rus is not allowed to directly finance the budget, a scheme is being used with intermediary banks. Thus, 4 tril rub
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could be injected into circulation by the end of the year.
But there's another problem: throughout the year, the Central Bank has already issued banks repo agreements worth 1 tril rub... and the banks haven't returned these funds to the CB, so they're still floating around.
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This means the Central Bank must issue banks another 4 trillion rubles in addition to the 1 trillion rubles already issued.
This entire setup will lead to a devaluation of the ruble supply, as there will be a sharp increase in rubles in circulation. This scheme is perfectly
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feasible during times of crisis, but playing with such volumes can lead to uncontrollable processes. And the 1 trillion repo figure, which hasn't decreased for a year, shows that they're getting deeper and deeper into these games. And funding for these expenses is partially
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And funding for these expenses is partially shifting from tax collection to outright money printing.
To put it even more simply, Russia is ramping up its printing press on an unprecedented scale.
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Russia's federal budget revenues have fallen below last year's level !
Thread.
In September, revenues fell by (-1.2% y/y) to 3,211 billion rubles.
In real terms, revenues fell by 10%. This is a disaster; even inflation couldn't save them.
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Oil and gas revenues fell by 25% in September.
Non-oil and gas revenues grew by only 6%, the smallest increase in 15 months.
The economy is beginning to collapse, and industry is deteriorating. 2/
Budget expenditures grew by only 6% in September, compared to +20% in previous months.
Moscow is running out of money to finance the war. Spending has had to be drastically cut. 3/
Today, Kommersant published Russia's planned steps to eliminate the fuel shortage. 1. Increasing imports from Belarus 2. Permitting the use of the octane-boosting additive monomethylaniline 3. Imports from China, South Korea, and Singapore
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Imports are planned at 350,000 tons of gasoline and 100,000 tons of diesel. However, the problem is that imported gasoline will cost at least 90 rubles per liter at gas stations, while according to Rosstat, the national price is 65 rubles. This represents a 45% increase.
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The article mentions the mysterious phrase "import damper," but its meaning remains a mystery. Who will compensate for the price difference? The budget? The government? And the most curious thing is that three government-affiliated companies will handle the import.
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My observations on the Russian fuel market. Thread.
🔶️Gasoline
Before the gubernatorial elections, which took place on Sept 12-14, in my opinion, they kept prices down using administrative measures, plus volumes from some reserves were being sold and traded on the exchange 1/
Perhaps from state reserves. After the elections, sales from the reserves were closed. Gasoline sales on the exchange have been 25% below the August average for the third day running, which is about 7,000 tons per day lost. Prices aren't rising because they're being held down
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administratively. But the shortage has begun to grow. This is especially true in regions where independent gas stations operate. There are no vertically integrated oil companies there.
In Russia, 67% of gas stations are independent, and they sell 27% of the total. 3/
Attack on the port of Primorsk on September 12. Thread.
The numbers are the numbers of the berths.
Berths No. 1 and 2 for loading crude oil
berths No. 8 and 9 for loading oil products
berths No. 3 and 4 can be used for loading both crude oil and oil products. 1/
The captions are the names of the ships standing for loading at the time of the attack.
At the time of the attack, the location of the ships in the port was as in the picture.
As a result of the attack, 3 tankers were damaged.
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Two oil (KUSTO (DWT 105 thousand tons) and CAI YUN (DWT 109 thousand tons), and the product tanker PHOSPHOR (DWT 51 thousand tons)
All tankers are still moored.
The tanker KUSTO received the most severe damage. A fire broke out. The crew of 28 people had to be evacuated.
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Hidden unemployment has been growing in Russia since the second half of the second quarter! The state of the economy is deteriorating sharply.
Thread. 1/
Explanation. I took the consolidated budget data, subtracted the federal budget figures to clear the noise on some taxes and see more or less clean dynamics, since some taxes changed their rates from the new year and innovations were introduced in taxation.
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I will not overload you with unnecessary information, so let's get to the point.
Income tax went into the minus y/y
April: -7%
May: -17%
June: -21%
Russian enterprises began to receive less profit - tax deductions to the budget fell.
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