If you are chasing higher win rates you NEED to know this.
🧵 Short Thread
1) Risk reward has nothing to do with how the market is going to move.
It is always easier for the market to move 50 cents to your stop versus 2 dollars to your target.
Thus, your stop will always be more likely to be taken than your profit target with standard, single chart analysis.
2) The way to fix this is to find an 'edge' aka a place where you have a higher probability of price going in the direction of your target than the direction of your stop.
All of technical analysis is boiled down to this simple idea.
This is EVERYTHING I wish I was told when I started.
#1 What strategies do
Every strategy is trying to do the same thing, quantify [objectively describe] what the market is doing so that we can find repeating conditions and make money. Allowing us to have a trade idea [where to buy/sell] an invalidation of that idea [where we exit for a loss] and a target [where price is going]
The problem is many strategies rely on subjectivity. Meaning two traders trading a the same strategy can have two differing opinions on what the market is doing and what the market will do next.
Support and resistance traders have differing opinions on what qualifies as support and resistance.
Supply and demand traders have differing opinions on what qualifies as supply or demand zones.
etc.
If your strategy is based on opinion then you'll never be able to reliably identify the same condition over and over and therefore not be able to find consistency.
We'll build on this later.
#2 Trading educators
If you hear these things from any trading educator you need to find a new person to listen to.
"The market makers are taking my stops"
+ This means they have no idea why price just did what it did, this is victim mentality
"Price is going from 90 to 130, I'm in at 90!"
-> "We hit 100 I'm reducing half"
-> "We hit 105 I'm reducing again"
-> "We hit 115 I'm reducing more!"
-> "We hit 130! Took out my last piece!"
This means they had no idea price was going from 90 to 130, if they knew it was going to move 40$ they would've added to their trade the whole way.
Most people have no idea why Christians are so head over heels for Jesus and think it's foolish.
In light of Easter this weekend lets break it down in a way that's easy to comprehend. Regardless of your belief or faith.
First, what is this "Good Friday?"
It is the day that Jesus died on the cross.
This is a historical fact & even most athiest scholars attest that this was a real historical event.
In Christianity this is believed as God showing up as a man--like a hand fills a glove, living a perfect life & accepting the suffering on the cross to show his love to the world and to offer forgiveness to every single person.
Including yourself.
We'll get to why God would even decide to do that in a second..
Now, why would God go through so much pain? Well the problem comes from the beginning of humanity.
Adam & Eve were tempted in the garden to eat from the tree of the knowledge of Good & Evil. They fell to this temptation & they ate from the tree.
The second they did this, they suddenly understood concepts like right and wrong, shame, and vulnerability.
They realized they were naked & hid themselves from God.
Winning positions look like a reversal after price has made a new low or new high.
This is because when you make new highs it tells you of a buyer that took the offer and was willing to pay up!
If you make new lows it tells you of a seller that hit the bid and was willing to sell down!
Therefore when you reverse back through that range that aggressive buyer/seller is forced to do something! Either exit their position or attempt to defend their position.
2) What does a reversal look like?
A reversal looks like any of these patterns here. Given there is only 3 scenarios there is only so many ways price can reverse.
We never have to guess if price is reversing once we understand this.
3) What does a winning long position look like?
In this example you will see price made new lows, then it reversed back through the previous range & caused sellers to take a loss.
Thus we made new highs & stopped all the 'tight stop guys' who have placed their stops where they got in or against obvious pivots
This is called a 2d-2u reversal paired with the actionable signal of the hammer.
The scenario 2 down that is closer to breaking 2u on the next candle is a signal [with the hammer] because we can anticipate price will reverse. Because one of the most common reversals is the 2d-2u reversal!