Honza Černý Profile picture
Oct 21 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
🧵 THREAD:

“China’s silver vaults are draining fast.” 🐉🥈

1️⃣
Shanghai Gold Exchange just reported another 57 tons of silver withdrawn last week.

That’s 1.83 million ounces gone — in one week.

SGE inventories dropped from 1 108 t → 1 050 t, approaching the 1 000 t mark for the first time in years.
2️⃣
For perspective:

if this pace continues (−50 t per week), China’s vaults could dip below 1 000 t by mid-November.

That would mark one of the lowest levels since 2020, when supply chains were shattered and premiums exploded across Asia.
3️⃣
Why it matters:

When physical silver drains from Chinese vaults, it usually signals tightness in the real market — not paper.

Industrial demand (solar, electronics) and investor buying are both pulling from the same pool.
And that pool is shrinking.
4️⃣
Meanwhile, Western “paper markets” still pretend everything’s fine —but you can’t short what’s not there.

China’s silver outflows are a real-world stress test for the illusion of abundance created in London and New York.
5️⃣
Keep watching the SGE inventory chart.
When it breaks below 1 000 t — it’s not just a number.
It’s a signal that Asia owns the price discovery,
and the East is stacking while the West is sleeping. 🥈🐉

#Silver #China #SGE #SilverSqueeze

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Honza Černý

Honza Černý Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @honzacern1

Oct 21
🧵 THREAD:

“What if bullion dealers had to follow the COMEX dump?” 🥈💥 Image
1️⃣
Imagine this:
Silver futures crash −8%, COMEX shows panic, and yet… physical silver is tight.

What happens if retail bullion dealers are forced to match paper prices?

Spoiler: the entire illusion collapses. 👇
2️⃣
Dealers buy real metal — mined, refined, insured, and shipped across oceans.

Their costs don’t fall just because Wall Street hits the “short” button.

If they followed today’s −8% futures crash, they’d sell below replacement cost.
That’s suicide for any real-world business.
Read 8 tweets
Oct 21
🧵 “They saved SLV… or did they?” 🥈🤔
by @honzacern1

1️⃣
Suddenly, everything’s fine!
Borrow fee drops from 16% → 10% in hours, and available shares jump from 100K → 300K.

Crisis averted, right? 😂 Image
2️⃣
Wrong.

That’s not “relief.”
That’s refill.

Fresh paper shares magically appear when things get tight — usually via internal rehypothecation or borrowed inventory.
3️⃣
The borrow fee of 10% is still insanely high.
For context: 2–3% is already “expensive.”

10–16% means: hard-to-borrow, short-sellers desperate, and pressure building.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 21
🧵 THREAD:

“They dumped silver — not because of truth, but because of leverage.” 🥈⚡

1️⃣
Today’s silver “crash” wasn’t about supply or demand.
No new data.

No change in fundamentals.

Just paper. Just leverage.

A synthetic flush designed to reset sentiment — and scare the weak hands.Image
2️⃣
COMEX shows no surge in open interest.
Volume?
Average.

Physical flows? Still tight in Asia.

This wasn’t the market discovering price — it was the system defending illusion.
3️⃣
Every time silver nears $50, something “mysterious” happens.

A massive sell wall.

Thousands of paper ounces hitting the tape in seconds.

Not real metal — contracts.
Because real metal doesn’t move that fast.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 21
🧵 THREAD: The SLV Paradox 🥈📉
“How can 8.7M oz added to SLV lead to a 5% drop in silver price?”

Let’s break it down. 👇
1️⃣
SLV ETF Alert:
➡️ 9.65 million new shares created today
➡️ 8.7 million ounces supposedly delivered into SLV
➡️ New high for the year in shares outstanding

Sounds bullish, right? More demand = higher price?
Not on the paper market.
2️⃣
On the very same day, silver crashed −5.5%.
From $52.39 → $49.50.

So how can the biggest “delivery” of the year cause the sharpest price drop?
Because most of that silver never moved.
Read 10 tweets
Oct 20
🧵 Thread

1️⃣
Silver ETF borrow costs just went parabolic.
• SIVR: 17.5% fee, ~100k shares available
• SLV: 18.85% fee, ~1,000,000 shares available

#SilverSqueeze #StackerLogic Image
2️⃣
High borrow fee = scarcity signal.

It happens when float gets locked or creation units slow/stop.

Either way → less metal behind the curtain, more friction for shorts.
HTB ≠ normal market structure — it’s stress.
3️⃣
Price action confirms it: SIVR ripped from ~$25 → ~$49 in months and refuses to break down.

Borrow fee screamed first, price followed.

This is how squeezes start — with shortage, not headlines. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 20
🧵 Vault of Last Resort: why stackers won’t back down (not now)

1️⃣ Something cracked in early October.

London (LBMA) suddenly ran thirsty for physical, and had to be “rescued” by emergency silver inflows from the US and partly from Asia.

That’s not normal — that’s an SOS signal.Image
2️⃣ When London dries up, the world reaches for COMEX — the Vault of Last Resort.

But that vault isn’t bottomless either.

The free float silver (the truly available stock) keeps shrinking.
3️⃣ Reality check: silver is flowing — not vanishing, but moving where it’s needed.

Part went to London, part straight to industry and investors.

Paper can pretend. Physical can’t.
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(