Restructuring__ Profile picture
Oct 22 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Coatue October 2025 State of the Markets Update

60 Pages on Public Markets every investor should read

Get the Full Deck below ⬇️

1) AI continues to drive markets higher while...
2) In addition, new names are winning the AI Race
3) The market is very expensive, but...
....
6) Coatue is not selling, the AI Bull Case
7) Coatue ROIC Math on AI
8) AI Bull and Bear Case comparison
9) AI Apps LandscapeImage
1) AI continues to drive markets higher but...
Mag 7 is no longer outperforming Image
2) In addition, new names are winning the AI Race Image
3) The market is very expensive, but
the tech premium is reasonable Image
4) History of bubbles Image
Image
5) Are we in a bubble? Image
Image
Image
6) Coatue is not selling, the AI Bull Case

Key arguments
- Adoptions is still increasing
- CapEx is cash flow funded
- Valuations are high, but reasonable
- AI is saving big money Image
Image
Image
Image
7) Coatue ROIC Math on AI Image
8) AI Bull and Bear Case comparison Image
9) AI Apps Landscape Image
Interested in the Full Deck?

Reshare the first post and comment "Pari Passu Newsletter" - I will send you a DM with the PDF

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More from @Restructuring__

Oct 14
"10 Years. 10 Hard-Earned Lessons in PE"

Beautiful piece, read it

1) On pursuing PE vs. other paths
2) Good work ceases to be enough once you become seasoned — a web of relationships is more important
3) It's all just selling at the end of the day. Communication and charisma.
4) Don’t expect fairness. Respect the powers of collateral damage.
5) Founders, management and industry operators are sometimes very underrated
6) The myth of the mighty senior partner
7) Even PE work becomes just a people, projects and admin job after some years.
8) Don’t allow PE to be your main thing
9) You need to make some mistakes to learn from them. It probably won't make a difference that you read this post.
10) Careers are often made out of nothing, or everything 🧵Image
1) On pursuing PE vs. other paths Image
2) Good work ceases to be enough once you become seasoned — a web of relationships is more important Image
Read 11 tweets
Oct 13
We have all seen the email below, but what do it mean?

What are factoring facilities? And what is going on here?

1) Factoring Basics
2) Dummy Example
3) Common Factoring Structures
4) Reasons for Factoring
5) The infamous Weil email explained Image
1) Factoring Basics

Factoring is a form of financing that allows companies to convert their accounts receivable into immediate cash.

Traditionally, when a company sells goods or services, it issues an invoice to its customer, which is often not paid for thirty, sixty, or even ninety days. Instead of waiting for the cash payment, some companies opt to sell the invoice to a third party, known as a “factor”, at a discount, typically around 95 to 98% of the receivables face value (this discount represents the fee charged by the factor).

Importantly, factors often won’t advance the entire cash balance upfront. Typically, 75% to 90% of the receivable’s face value is advanced upfront, and the remaining balance is transferred, less the abovementioned discount, once customer accounts have been collected.

Therefore, once the customer has paid the invoice, the operating company will have collected the full receivables balance, less the factoring fee.

The Factor’s fee represents its earnings for providing upfront liquidity and assuming the risk that the customer may not pay on time, or at all.
2) Dummy Example

To numerically illustrate concepts, we’ll use ABC Co. as a hypothetical example.

First, imagine ABC Co. sells $100k worth of goods to a customer on sixty-day terms. Instead of waiting two months to collect, ABC Co. sells the invoice to Factor Co.

On the day of the sale, Factor Co. advances 85% of the invoice, or $85,000, to ABC Co.

When the customer eventually pays the full $100,000 on day 60, Factor Co. sends the remaining $15,000 back to ABC Co., but subtracts its $3,000 factoring fee.

In total, ABC Co. has collected $97,000, with $85,000 upfront and $12,000 later, with the $3,000 difference in cash collected and face value representing the cost of accelerating cash flow.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 12
Single-Manager Hedge Fund (Tiger, Lone Pine, etc.)

Transitioning to -->

Multi-Manager Hedge Fund (Point 72, Citadel, etc.)

1) SM vs. MM → A different sport
2) Different type of role & bets
3) Changed how I'd think about holding periods
4) Learnings & Conclusion

🧵1/4Image
2/4 Image
3/4 Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 21
Volatility isn't killing value. It's creating it.

Distressed debt veteran Rudi Singh argues the current credit turmoil is a gift for value hunters, not a setback.

In a recent Bloomberg Credit Edge interview, he explains how many distressed companies remain fundamentally sound but are weighed down by poor capital structures.

From capital flowing out of the U.S. into Europe to growing tension between lenders and sponsors, Singh's firm is targeting 20 percent plus returns across the chaos.

Here are the key insights every investor, operator, and credit professional should know 🧵Image
1) Good Companies, Bad Capital

Singh highlights the paradox of strong businesses sinking under heavy debt. In today’s capital-strained environment, even well-run firms can falter when funding dries up: refinancing massive loans is costly or impossible. Aptior argues that much of the corporate stress we see isn’t due to bad products but overly aggressive balance sheets.

For example, a company that borrowed cheaply during easier times may now see interest costs soar, pushing it toward default despite steady sales. He sums up the situation with an old adage: many are simply “very good businesses” undone by “bad cap” structure”—meaning the capital structure, not the business model, is the problem.

This creates a self-reinforcing distress cycle: once volatility spikes, credit spreads widen further, forcing markdowns and more forced sales. Bonds and loans can trade in “distressed” territory (higher-digit to double-digit yields) even if the underlying company is sound. Singh suggests that savvy investors watch for these dislocations—moments when prices decouple from fundamentals—as entry points. In effect, the cycle of widening spreads and selling pressure is what creates value for distressed buyers.

The key is distinguishing financial overhang from real economic trouble; when demand remains intact, but debt burdens overwhelm, a balance-sheet fix can unlock full value.
2) Aptior Targeting 20%+ Through Dislocation

Aptior’s strategy is built on pursuing outsized returns to compensate for the risks of distressed credit. Singh notes the firm targets roughly “20% returns”—well” above typical bond yields—because only equity-like payoffs make sense when lending to stressed companies. To achieve that, Aptior leans into market dislocations.

When macro shocks (e.g., trade policy news or global growth scares) cause credit spreads to spike, Aptior aims to buy at the bottom of the swing. The firm can deploy capital via private rescue loans, liability-management exchanges, or court-supervised restructurings, picking up deeply discounted paper.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 11
In October 2022, the activist investor Starboard Value bought 7% of a small provider of Data Center Solutions.

On month later, ChatGPT was released.

The Data Center market exploded, and the stock is up 12x in 2 years.  A masterclass in activism investing (or market timing)🧵

1) Data Center and Vertiv Overview
2) Data Center Tailwinds
3) Lack of Urgency
4) Valuation Discount
5) Margin Opportunity
6) Multiple OpportunityImage
1) Data Center and Vertiv Overview

To understand Vertiv, you need to understand its end market data centers. 

Google defines data center is a physical facility that houses computing and networking equipment, used to store, process, and distribute an organization's critical data and applications, essentially acting as a centralized location for managing large amounts of digital information. 

Vertiv sells into some of the most attractive areas of the data center market including the racks (where the GPUs are placed), power supply, cooling systems, testing services, and software managementImage
Vertiv Competitive Position

Vertiv dominates this market. 

Vertiv’s #1 market position in thermal and services, which are critical for compute-intensive and hyperscale data centers, allows it to win across the product portfolio.

Vertiv’s leading market position in critical categories serves as a pull-through for other data center needs.Image
Read 12 tweets
Sep 5
ELLIOTT - PEPSI $4B ACTIVIST CAMPAIGN

This week, Elliott sent a letter to Pepsi board disclosing its $4B investment in the stock and asking for change. 

What is their thesis and how do they plan to create $100B of equity value:
1) Elliott Investment in Pepsi
2) Pepsi Today 
3) The Case for Simplification 
4) A Great Opportunity Peers have Seized
5) Valuation Opportunity (50% upside)

A Thread 🧵Image
1) Pepsi Today

PepsiCo is one of the world’s largest Consumer Packaged Goods (“CPG”) companies, with a portfolio of some of the most beloved brands in food and beverage

But, despite its unmatched scale, brand strength and track record of growth, PepsiCo’s valuation is deeply discounted relative to its own history and the industry. This discount offers investors a unique opportunityImage
1b) Pepsi History

PepsiCo today stands as a testament to more than a century of relentless execution, bold marketing and strategic transformation.

By pioneering some of the world’s most popular beverages and snacks and constantly reinventing itself, the Company has continually adapted to changing consumer tastes and global markets

For nearly six decades, PepsiCo has driven sustained growth by building a global portfolio of over 200 iconic brands in both snacks and beverageImage
Read 20 tweets

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