Meesho clocked ₹30,000 crore of Sales in FY25 - this is approx. 30 lakh orders per day fulfilled by 5 lakh sellers!
They aim to raise ~₹6,500 crore in their upcoming IPO; and it is the first horizontal e-commerce platform to go public in India (Flipkart started 8 years prior btw!)
Meesho’s updated 667 page DRHP is a must read for anyone who follows E-Commerce in India
Here are my 5 key takeaways from the filings⤵️
(1) Meesho has 21 crore active shoppers who place avg. 9+ orders per year 🤯
Few observations v/s their 2024 annual report:
(a) LTM order frequency is up from 9 to 9.5
(b) ATUs (active shoppers) is also up from 18.7 crore to 21.3 crore
(c) Order growth (50% YOY) is outstripping NMV growth (36% YOY) - this is interesting, Meesho is already a value commerce platform - the AOV is declining even further (by design) - to grow the customer base!
AOV has reduced from ₹336 (FY 23) to ~₹270 (Q1 FY26) - worth tracking this for the future! Valmo (check pt 3) is critical to making this AOV decline unit economic sustainable.
PS - I had covered Meesho’s 2024 Annual Report a few months back (bookmark for later):
(2) Scale economies are somewhat questionable….. (my only bear case on this business)
(a) The cost per order is down to ~₹37 in Q1 FY26 from ~₹50 in FY23 👍 Awesome, right?
(b) Well, not really - because AOV has also come down!
(c) As a % of AOV - cost per order is ~13.7% v/s 15% in FY23 - not much has changed…
This actually flows into the Contribution Margin - it remains at ~4.5% in Q1 FY26 v/s the peak ~5.6% in FY24.
Now, I’d also highlight that the bull case here is - AOV decline will plateau and as Meesho moves from 60% Valmo orchestration to ~80%+ orchestration (plus some further tweaks) - this should work just fine (if it doesn’t, don’t ask me).
Meesho launched its own logistics aggregation business (Valmo) in August 2022; Valmo processed 30 crore orders in Q1 FY26 with a team of ~200 employees 🤯
The statistics are eye popping:
(a) Meesho is the highest contributor to e-commerce orders in India (~31% of total)
(b) Meesho has 13.5K partner logistics firms (SMEs mostly) who in-turn work with ~85.5K deliver agents
(c) Valmo’s orchestration network today handles ~62% of Meesho orders v/s 0 approx. 3 years ago!!
For context: In FY25, Valmo handled 75 crore orders i.e. 20 Lakh orders per day! Which is now at a 30 Lakh per day runrate.
RIP E-Commerce Express 🙏 Logistics is an unforgiving business esp. when your anchor customer decides to insource v/s outsource.
PS: I wrote about Valmo when it was launched last year (bookmark & read for later):
(4) Creator led discovery generates ₹1,000 crore in Sales!
As of 30th June, Meesho has ~40K active creators who record short form videos & host live streams to guide Meesho shoppers who contributed ~₹1,000 crore in net Sales for the past 12 months!
(a) Meesho launched the Meesho Creator Club in March ‘23
(b) The creator base is growing fast; it was ~28K as of March ‘25
(c) The 40K active creators produced ~6.8 Lakh pieces of order generating content in the past 12 months!
Note: Creators are directly attributed with ~3% of net Sales of Meesho; this is a far cry from their previous pure re-seller driven model.
Nonetheless, Meesho is a great example of why Brands continue to deploy capital into the Creator Economy - influence & familiarity drives transactions!
(5) COD (Cash On Delivery) is ~75% of orders (even today!)
This statistic might surprise you - but you & I are in the minority of e-commerce shoppers who pre-pay using credit cards 😁
(a) COD as % of total orders is down from ~88% (2023) to ~75% (Q1 FY26); there is a slow but subtle shift from COD to pre-paid orders
(b) However, there is NO improvement in the success rate of COD orders (despite taking control over logistics with Valmo)
Key Q: how does Meesho compare v/s the industry average?
- Meesho (75% COD) is higher than industry average (60%)
- Meesho RTO rate of 25% on COD orders is quite the industry average 😄
Btw, earlier this year, I had done a 20 minute Breakdown video on how Meesho’s creator led value commerce playbook works:
Congratulations to Vidit, Sanjeev, early investors (YC, Good Capital, Venture Highway, PeakXV, Elevation) and the employees 👏
Big win (again) for YC and PeakXV - another IPO filing after Groww
This business has been through 4 distinct avatars & multiple near death moments - Fashnear (hyperlocal fashion), reseller-led group buying, social commerce and now Value E-Commerce.
Meesho’s current Value E-Commerce playbook in a nutshell is: Match long tail unbranded supply to non-metro city demand through video first discovery (via creators) - delivered to the doorstep via a closed loop logistics network.
Discl: Views are my own. DYOR prior to subscribing to any IPO - this post is not an endorsement or paid promotion. Shared for informational purposes only.
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Urban Company today faces the same Innovator’s Dilemma which Zomato faced 2.5 years ago
Zomato acquired Blinkit in June ‘22 to take on Zepto & Instamart in Quick Commerce - it was considered a fad then; today Blinkit is larger (NOV basis) as compared to the Zomato by a large margin.
UC’s Q2 FY26 tell a similar story: The overall loss is driven by investment into Insta Help (UC’s quick home services arm in India)
UC has NO choice but to do this because of how hot the Quick Home Services market is - Snabbit has raised $50M+, Pronto has raised $14M+ and there is a new clone popping up every fortnight.
I’ve tracked this space closely - sharing my thesis on what is happening below ⤵️
First, let us see how Insta Help has been scaling within UC:
(a) Launched in Feb ‘25 in select pin codes in Mumbai (around the time the news of Snabbit’s $1M Seed round was announced)
(b) QoQ it has grown ~10X from ~₹1 crore Sales in Q1 FY26 to ~₹9.9 crore Sales in Q2 FY26
(c) Oct ‘25 itself was ~₹8.6 crore Sales - the trajectory is upward!
The growth is explosive - naturally the losses will pile up (same happened during the early frenzy of Quick Commerce expansion days in ‘22 and ‘23)
I can already see the consumer behavior shift - several of my own colleagues who recently moved cities don’t employ a full time help - they book on Insta Help or one of the other platforms!
Remember: Don’t look at the gross transaction value - look at Net Sales (after discount). It is too early to look at Revenue from Ops (i.e. after partner payout) because this business is NOT fully optimized as yet - per my own offline chats with the service executives (who are currently on generous minimum guarantees)
Below is verbatim what I shared internally:
(1) Quick Home Services (InstaHelp) is a bi-weekly frequency service v/s slotted home services (UC) which is a bi-monthly service.
(2) There is a clear consumer behavior shift from slotted commerce to on-demand commerce. The same will apply in home services too (slotted to on-demand)
(3) Furthermore, like how on-demand commerce is capturing wallet share from slotted commerce - the same will happen in home services.
(4) It is absolutely necessary that UC incubates Instahelp - similar to how Zomato incubated Blinkit - else, Snabbit and Pronto will capture a large amount of wallet share in Quick Home Services
(5) Wallet/Market share = Mind share. The winner in on-demand home services might also capture a sizeable chunk of the slotted home services market.
Caveat to my analogy: The JTBD (”task”) in Quick Home Services is different - cleaning & washing (low skill) v/s installation & maintenance (skilled labor). However, the “moat” is very much the same - training & retention of high quality supply (which UC has a 10 year head start with)
Btw, I had extensively written about Quick Home Services earlier this year (bookmark for reading):
One of the big winners in India’s IPO gold rush is Redseer - a market research consulting firm.
Lenskart, Meesho, Urban Company, Swiggy, Vishal Mega Mart, Nykaa, FirstCry, BlueStone & LG Electronics - all have one thing in common: They have paid Redseer to do an industry report as part of the IPO marketing material
For e.g. Lenskart will be paying ~₹1.9 crore to Redseer for its report & other consultancy services as part of the IPO roadshow (more details below)
If you are a professional investor then Redseer is popular name - but if you aren’t then here are a few interesting facts you need to know ⤵️
First, who is Redseer?
(a) Redseer was founded in BLR back in 2009 by a young IIT-Delhi grad Anil Kumar; fully bootstrapped to date; the business does ~$25M+ in revenue today (my estimate based on online sources)
(b) The idea behind Redseer was to create a domestic equivalent to the MBB consulting firms - with a specific focus on new economy companies (the startup world)
(c) Redseer started by doing a lot of market research projects but has slowly moved up the “Strategy value chain” to do MBB-type CXO consulting projects.
Pretty interesting & niche consulting business!
Now that you understand Redseer - let us go to the crux:
(1) Is this legal?
- Yes, this is considered part of the IPO roadshow expenses (Advertising & Marketing)
- As long as it is disclosed in the DRHP shared with the public
- In fact, Redseer has to provide a consent letter to allow its report to be published alongside the IPO documents
(2) Isn’t there a conflict of interest?
- The naive answer is yes - but there is a LOT of nuance.
- The industry report is part of the IPO material submitted to SEBI for review; so it is subjected to the SAME scrutiny as the offer documents (sources, cross Qs etc)
- Redseer itself would NOT misrepresent industry facts - because its own subscribers & customers (i.e. institutional investors) will review this material; IF they write BS - they will lose credibility & customers 🙂
(3) Why Redseer and why not the investment bankers?
- SEBI requires the IPO docs to have industry stats quoted from a reliable third party expert
- To some extent, Redseer is a credible 3rd party to comment on new-age industries; hence it is roped in
- Whereas, the specialty of the investment bankers is often not in market analysis but rather running the IPO process (roadshow, valuation, compliance etc)
Sify Infinit’s 560 page DRHP is a masterclass on the Data Center (DC) market in India
Apart from covering the nuances of its own business, Sify has also included a primer on India’s 5GW ambition for FY30 and the challenges that lie ahead
After China, India has the lowest cost per MW of DC capacity - we plan to almost X3 our DC capacity in the next 5 years.
Sharing a few takeaways ⤵️
(1) Energy is 44% of total expenses
- This data point confirms what several industry reports have pointed out: Energy is the single largest OPEX component of a DC
- This % has been on a downward trend for Sify from ~47% to ~38% - driven by shifting to more Renewables & operational efficiency
PS: PUE (Power Usage Effectiveness) is the KPI for measuring energy efficiency; Sify doesn’t provide this figure in its DRHP
- However, Sify does shared that 27% improvement in PUE in FY24; driven by 20% reduction in energy leakages.
- Btw, Sify passes these costs on to its customer (this is part of the Colocation DC operating model - more on this below).
Imp nuance (can skip too): Industry avg. PUE in India is close to 1.5 - versus high end DCs in USA which are at 1.1 i.e. they are able to reduce energy wastage by ~40% (hence, can operate at Energy as ~30% of COGS).
(2) India is really DC capacity starved!
Don’t even bother zooming into the capacity utilization chart - the mature DCs operate at 98% to 100% capacity (!!)
- For context: Global average vacancy for mature DCs is ~6%; Sify is close to 2% for mature sites
- It takes anywhere from 3 to 24 months post operationalization for a DC to start seeing high capacity utilization
- On a overall basis, utilization is up from 84.7% to 86.2% DESPITE growing operational capacity from 77MW to 113 MW (i.e. ~50%) in past 2.5 years
It was one thing to read about this from an industry POV (Kotak MF and JM Financial) but very interesting to see it in a company’s filings 🙂
India will see its 1st pureplay data center IPO soon - Sify Infinit Spaces (SISL) has filed for a ₹3700 crore IPO last week
SISL was started in 2017 as a subsidiary of NASDAQ listed Sify Technologies - it operates 14 colocation data center sites in India.
For FY25 - it made ~₹1,400 crore revenue with ₹125 crore PAT; the EBITDA margin is 44%
Btw, SISL’s parent Sify Tech was affiliated to the infamous Satyam Computers at the time of founding until 2005 (full stake sale) - at the time of 2009 scam - it was no longer affiliated.
I’ve been studying the Data Center opportunity in India for a couple of weeks - sharing a few fun facts to begin your learning journey below ⤵️
(1) India consumes 20% of global data - but has only 3% of data center (DC) capacity
Our data consumption will only continue to grow:
(a) We are the 2nd largest consumption market for several AI co’s like OpenAI, Perplexity etc
(b) 5G roll-out & adoption is still WIP; has gone from 10% to 35% penetration last year - will go beyond 50% in the next 18 months
(c) Our per capita data consumption is ~25GB per month, expected to grow to ~40GB per month over the next 5 yrs
(2) Regulatory tailwinds in this sector are VERY strong
- The central Govt has the Data Center Policy 2020 which gives a single window clearance
- Each state (as shown below) has further subsidies & incentives to attract hyperscalers
- The dual catalyst is Data Localization norms & DPDP (2023)
This year, ICONIQ led Anthropic’s $5bn Series F, ElevenLabs $180M Series C, Legora’s $80M Series B and TinyFish’s $47M Series A..
They are a media shy Wealth Mgt firm with $90bn+ of AUM who put their money where their pen is (quite literally)
Earlier this yr, they published their “State of AI 2025” report - now they’ve topped it up with several updates in a 73 page analysis of their portfolio companies.
Sharing a few takeaways ⤵️
(1) “AI” has changed what “best in class” means for Software
(a) OPEX leverage: ARR per FTE has increased 65% from ~$200K Pre-AI (2020) to $331K now; touching $390K for co’s with $500M+ ARR
(b) The goalpost “Rule of 40%” is now the “Rule of 60%” - BUT, there is ONE nuance: FCF margins are taking a hit - but growth rates are MUCH higher (even for “AI adjacent” SaaS co’s)
(c) NDRs (net dollar retention) also takes a hit - gold standard was ~135% in 2020; it is now down to ~115%. Elevated churn (experimental ARR, hype etc), competition & pricing pressure is hurting.
The change doesn’t impact Seed investors (like me) - but is VERY relevant for Growth & Public market investors.
Btw, ICONIQ’s Enterprise Five - ARR, NDR, Rule of 60%, Net Magic Number & ARR per FTE provides an excellent scorecard for Growth investors!
(2) The mere presence of “AI” revives growth (not joking)
(a) The one pint comment is that every VC has an “AI heavy” portfolio because all SaaS co’s have pivoted into AI co’s
(b) There is some data to support why this might help - it reinvigorates innovation (EPD teams), outbound (Sales morale) & inbound demand (FOMO)
(c) I’ve seen at least one of our portfolio co’s come back from extinction to growth mode because of AI - even SMBs can now be targeted profitably (CS cost is down, Sales can be automated & outcomes can be sold)
Example from ICONIQ: Palantir went from 15% YoY growth in Q2 ‘23 to ~35% growth in Q4 ‘24 - driven by “AI”
Doug Leone has been a Partner at Sequoia for 32 years now - he doesn’t do a lot of interviews - but his track record is incredible - ServiceNow ($187bn), Nubank ($73bn), Medallia (acq. $6.4bn) and he continues to serve as a board member to many companies.
Doug did a rare interview on the Training Data podcast where he answered some key Qs about investing in AI today; sharing a few notes from the same:
(1) Where will value accrue in the AI stack? Applications!
“Values always accrues up at the application layer - near the customer, money & the business user.”
(2) Can you sit out of AI as an investor? Nope
”You are at the front end of a cycle, which doesn’t mean you have to invest in everything but you have to invest.”
(3) What to do about round prices in AI today?
“You see a small company with very good momentum in a front end of the market; you lean in and you hold your nose on price.”
(Arguably, Sequoia did this with Google back in the day; a $100M post money valuation for a Series A)
(4) Did Sequoia foresee the AI wave? Nope!
“In March 2022, I had a slide that talked about all the waves - the next box was a question mark. We (Sequoia partnership) did not see the wave coming; this wave has been a tsunami and I don’t think there’s there’s any end in sight.”
PS: That March ‘22 investor interaction was Doug’s last one as an active partner at the firm (he has since stopped doing new investments & has more of an advisory role)
(5) Is AI any different from the previous waves? Maybe
"The AI wave is bigger than the Industrial Revolution. I had never imagined that there would be something bigger than connectivity (Internet) and the mobility (Mobile) era."
(6) Does company building change in a world of AI? Nothing has changed.
“The business fundamentals are very similar - you need a terrific founder, world class engineers, salespeople that are not administrator etc”