Thread by @honzacern1

1/
🇮🇳 CONNECT THE DOTS:
Until March 31 2026, India restricts silver imports (DGFT licensing).

From April 1 2026, the RBI will allow 85% LTV loans against gold and silver. 🏦🥈

2/
What changed?

“Free” imports → now Restricted.
You’ll need a license to import certain silver jewelry/products.

Goal: curb duty evasion, improve traceability, and clean up import channels.

3/
Timing isn’t random.

First, tighten the gates on unmonitored inflows.
Then, let banks operate with silver as collateral safely and transparently.

March 31 → April 1. That’s not coincidence.

4/
Mechanics:

Less “fake jewelry” entering duty-free = more verifiable physical silver in the system.

Banks can now lend against clean, certified metal.
→ Risk management 101.

5/
Short-term in India:

– Imports slow → premiums rise.
– Possible local shortages around festivals & weddings.
– Watch MCX vs. global spot and INR moves.

6/
Mid-term:

– Banks & NBFCs launch silver-backed loan products.
– Households keep their silver and borrow instead of selling.
→ The physical market tightens.

7/
Global angle:

India is a metals powerhouse.

Every import restriction + domestic bank demand = less free float for the rest of the world.

Expect higher premiums & tighter supply elsewhere.

8/
Keep an eye on:

– DGFT license policy updates.
– RBI lending guidelines & collateral standards.
– Hallmarking / assay rules for eligible silver.
– MCX–London/NY spread.

9/
Risks / counterpoints:

– Broad licensing or new smuggling routes could blunt the impact.
– A volatile rupee may offset part of the price effect.

10/
Bottom line for stackers:

First tighten the door (imports), then open the window (bank collateral).

This is silent remonetization in real time.
CONNECT THE DOTS. 🦍🥈

#Silver #India #RBI #DGFT

@threadreaderapp unroll