a mistake we see many founders make is tackling too large of a vision starting off. you hear the truism that good start-ups tackle large markets, and so you start building a Maximum Viable Product that solves multiple problems or replaces an entire incumbent (ex. "Figma killer")
but the larger the vision, the longer it takes to build, and the more time and money you burn before you can tell whether your product theory is correct
instead i'm a fan of the "right size problem for the right size team" approach - what's an appropriately scoped problem so that a team with your (limited) resources can execute a first-class effort? ex. Amazon's books-only marketplace or Facebook's college photo sharing feature
early on speed is the main advantage start-ups have over large companies - you move faster, ship faster, iterate faster. by going after smaller, bite-sized problems, you can nail them quickly, establish dominant market share, and then expand to adjacent use-cases. over time, Amazon became the everything marketplace, and Facebook became a social network for everyone - but in the beginning they focused on tightly scoped problems that a small team could execute to perfection
but wait - "won't I have trouble raising VC money if my initial market is too small"? for fundraising, you want to articulate the story crisply that your initial product wedge is only the tip of the spear, and there is a much larger vision you plan to tackle over time. you should have a believable roadmap for how to get there. once you do this, most investors should understand the strategy - and if they don't, they probably just aren't the right fit!
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1/ generative agents - apply LLMs to agents inside simulation games for incredibly lifelike behavior
sim games are popular. >70M people around the world play the Sims, where they manage the everyday life of virtual humans in an "interactive dollhouse"
2/ @joon_s_pk led a research team that applied ChatGPT to 25 Sims-like agents inside a virtual world
the emergent behavior was fascinating - over 2 days, the agents planned a Valentine's Day party and struck up new friendships & dates, all on their own
1/ excited to share that @a16z is leading a $40M investment in @CCPGames and their new AAA game - set in the EVE Universe & merging 20 years of best-in-class game design with the latest in blockchain technology 🔥
2/ years before the first blockchain, sci-fi MMO @EveOnline proved many of the core principles of web3
EVE is a virtual world in which every item from drones to dreadnoughts is player-made & tradable in an open economy. players self-organize into complex corporations & alliances
3/ since 2018, 50M+ EVE players have manufactured over 276 billion items and engaged in some of the biggest wars in games history
the Massacre of M2-XFE set a Guinness World Record for game wars, involving the destruction of over 3k spaceships (in-game value ~$378k USD)
1/ games are unique in how new platforms (ex. mobile) grow TAM rather than cannibalize older platforms - take console:
@Sony just had a monster PS5 quarter 🔥
- 32M consoles sold to-date
- 7.1M sold last quarter (82% YoY growth)
- $9.7B games & network revenue (53% YoY growth)
2/ consoles are 📈 today despite growth in mobile gaming, and against a consumer recession
@ballmatthew has a great chart on how new game technologies drive net growth by unlocking new types of content (& thus bring in net new users)
this is unique vs other media (film, music)
3/ new platforms are thriving as well. VR headset sales broke records in 2021 and the Quest 2 is estimated to have sold >15M units to-date
1/ generative AI will likely go big first in vertical communities like anime, games, D&D 🎯
while most folks are focused on film/tv, i think high-end creatives will be the last to adopt - too much existing tooling, inertia, unions etc
the fringe is where revolutions start 🤘
2/ new innovations spread like wildfire through verticals with dense & passionate communities 🔥
- dense: each member has a high average # of connections
- passionate: members love talking about their affinity for a product
-> anime & games are good examples
3/ anime - entire communities have sprung up around 'jumon' or the best seed phrases for generating anime. AI is valuable here because anime is visually distinctive yet difficult to learn to draw
1/ excited to share that @a16z is leading the $56M Series B in @readyplayerme - a leading platform for interoperable avatars, used by over 3k developers across web2 & web3 virtual worlds. i'm honored to join the board and team up with @cdixon 🔥
2/ we believe the next generation of virtual worlds will be built with interoperability as a core tenet, enabling players to own their identities & digital assets and take them wherever they go
these open economies will be larger & more durable than any walled garden to-date 🧱
3/ Ready Player Me (RPM) is leading the way in building the interoperable identity protocol for the open Metaverse
RPM provides developers a plug-&-play system for 3D avatars. Devs enjoy best-in-class avatar tech and get to market faster by focusing on their core product 🎯