Thread by @IstvanicMarin

Manual Bids Deciphered

When it comes to Manual bids, 2 main things you need to worry about are:

1) Spend
2) Performance

Your goal is to find a sweet spot between those 2

And only 4 potential scenarios could happen

Let's break them down & potential next steps for each:

Additional context here is that I use "Cost per results", also known as "Cost Caps"

And I use it ONLY for Scaling, not for testing

I'm comfortable setting an inflated budget with my winning ads, because even if FB overspends, it can't spend "that much" over my target CPA, because all the ads there are still winning ads

Cost cap, which means the cost per result should average out over the period of your attribution setting, let's say 7dc

I always use Click only with manual bids

So if you put $50 CC, one day results would be $52, another $47, third $42, fourth $57, but at the end it should average out to $50

Let's start with where you need to set your Manual bid

I usually start at either
1) account average CPA, under the assumption that you are hitting your CPA target

or

2) slightly below, because it's better to start conservative and then increase the bid than lose money with a manual bid overspending

So, let's say your AOV is $100, ROAS target is 2, which means your CPA target is $50

If you are currently getting $70 CPA in the ad account, you can't expect to set CC at $50 and expect it to fully spend your budget

CC is not a magic bullet, and it probably won't spend much

But let's say your account average CPA is $45 for that $100 AOV, when setting up a manual bids campaign, start with $45

So let's now cover the potential scenarios

1) You set it on $45, and it's generating some sales, but it's not spending the budget fully.

Let's say it spends only $200 out of a $1k daily budget

I would gradually increase the bid by $1, until you get to a point where it's spending the full budget, while still getting good results

2) If you are in a scenario where it's not spending a lot, but when it spends, it delivers bad results (over your target CPA)

Your only option is to import new winning ads, in case you have them

In case you don't have them, I'm not running manual bids, as I use them only for scaling

3) In case your budget is fully spent daily, but the results are not great

You should do 2 things:
a) decrease the bid, as FB is obviously overspending and ignoring the bid

b) decrease the budget, and wait for 7d, as FB "should" average out to the target CC

But...

The thing is that "should" sometimes doesn't happen, so you don't want to lose money while waiting

So you can do both, decrease bid & budget

+ refresh it with new ads

4) If your budget is fully spent every day, and the results are good

It means you are in the scaling position, and you can give it more room by increasing the budget

Another option is that you have already started with an "inflated" budget, so you don't have to worry about increasing it

As mentioned, I'm a fan of using CC for scaling, especially during the high-performing periods, like weekends

When CR is higher because more people are on the phone, or during BFCM

It allows FB to scale by itself, without me manually trying to guess how much I can scale during the weekend

If you have any additional questions about manual bids, put them in the comments below