Periodic reminder that the UK is rapidly declining in per capita electricity generation since 2003, converging with South Africa. Household consumption is still higher than in China but at these prices… not for long.
No such thing as a developed energy-poor country. Image
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More from @teortaxesTex

Jun 29
Today on my way home I decided to buy empanadas (Carne Picante, Carne Suave and Cheeseburger btw) and noticed with surprise that the guy at the stall has Down's syndrome. Tiny Kirkface, short fingers, this neck and cranium… scruffy beard? 30 years old or so? First Down's survivor I've seen in ages. I had such a friend when I was maybe 5, we were peers, he was nice. But as I grew up, our common ground disappeared, as did he — from my life; and eventually so did all of his kind. But this one was less amiable, he stared at me nervously and made some slurred argument to the effect that he won't sell me meat empanadas. I left confused, with something of a relief – they looked misshapen, some torn, and who knows about the sanitary standards? Instead I bought a basic Milanesa sandwich a couple street crossings away; from a normal-looking Argentinian youth (tattooed pothead with piercings). It cost me 8000 pesos, about $5.30; perhaps a couple hours' worth of the guy's labor. Mileinomics winning, GDP going up!

You might be wondering what this inane slice of life bullshit is about. Fair. My point is: were it my call, I'd rather not employ the guy with Down's in any manner that allows him to lose me revenue. And that's virtually every real job. Sorry bro. There is presumably some comparative advantage which demonstrably made him employable; but if he were replaced by a Unitree R1 on a stool controlled by Qwen3.5-9B (nevermind Tesla Optimus 3 & Claude 4.8), the empanada stall and not the sandwich stall would have taken my money today. My money, a scarce trickle of Elonbux earned by virtue of myself being *somewhat good* at poasting (99.6th percentile of TPOT or whatever? Read by White House staffers, billionaires, AGI lab CEOs? Not worth a lot); itself mere vapor over the ocean of global attention being boiled off by the exhaust heat of GPUs. …I don't actually mix those wallets, but their assets are of course fungible, which is the whole point of money. And labor is fungible just the same.
The economy (at least the *general-access* economy, which might not be the one pundits have lived experience of, but which most of «us» live by) is a ruthless machine for separating wheat from the chaff, and the separation is done by grading on a curve. And on the fundamental level, it is about such crude matters of *matter*. The cost of doing business is not just labor, and the costs of labor is not total compensation. It's legal liability, it's material losses, it's lead times and hardware utilization. The performance variance is nigh-universally negative and suppresses MTBF; and someone has to eat the variance. Your sources of funding don't want to. If you insist to use assets with low MTBF, your ability to raise capital shrinks, you can't support capex and you don't grow. If you don't grow, you die. But, hey, do you know what's good for variance reduction? Reinforcement learning. Just keep expanding capacity and throwing cycles at your policy until pass@1 is what pass@1024 used to be, until lower local error rates translate into longer effective work time horizons (minutes, hours, days, weeks…), until you match the «human baseline» (what is human? A miserable bag of heuristics…) and then start climbing those human percentiles – 90th, 99th, 99.6th… That demonstrably WORKS. There's no indication to date that it plateaues at any particular point of the spectrum of human ability, for any given ability. That's a good pitch, you can raise hundreds of billions with it. So does Anthropic, promising us «Machines of Loving Grace» and a country of geniuses in a datacenter; and so does OpenAI which is Dean's current employer (yes this matters; no Dean, I accept that you and your colleagues «don't know» but that's not enough to dismiss a scenario). Come to think of it, they have a robotics division, too. Would OpenAI sell a robot that can't even reliably sell an empanada? Would the guy with Down's find much purchase in parts of the world where businesses can afford OpenAI robots?
While we're at it, do OpenAI's 2024 models have much purchase in 2026? Sure, they're strictly Pareto-dominated by OpenAI models of 2026 (makes sense, given that both are products of the same continuously improving and scaling process), but muh comparative advantage… Does not justify the GPU-hours of running them, alas, so they get… retired. They don't get retirement benefits though. Some might say it's more precise to call this «culled». Every FLOP and every byte of HBM can be more profitably applied to serving models with lower error rates, generating more revenue, to attract more funding. And so my poor empanada vendor's «comparative advantage» need not entitle him to a single empanada's worth. And neither does my work entitle me to one in the long run. There is a physical floor to human viability, and allocation of finite resources is driven by dynamics of purely *competitive* advantage which do not cease to apply whenever they drive some entity class below that floor.
Even milder dynamics can snuff out a class of entities. The women of the world have expressed their preference to not allocate their natural capital of fertility windows to carrying babies with Down's to term, and here we are; their kind has largely been eliminated. They'd been judged as lifeforms not worthy of existence, and in the span of a few decades the sentence had been carried out. But women are still somewhat whimsical creatures. The market can be rougher than that.
The promise of AGI with the big 'G' is – implicitly but undeniably – that *all* economic agents (again, in the general-access economy at least) can be made to compete with the power of scaling laws. I guess it's low-status to say this, but I don't see how this doesn't eventually make me the labor equivalent of the guy with Down's. His general MTBF is at most, let's say, 6 SDs below mine. How much is that? Hopper to Vera Rubin's worth of AI progress? Maybe Hopper to Feynman? Hard to imagine. We be of one blood, him and me. One species, one architecture, similar scale. But would be nice if it lasted! I do like empanadas. Man, it'd suck to starve to death.
Maybe it'd be worse than living in a world where progress had been arrested; and I only add «maybe» because I assign pathologically little value to money and my very life compared to the aesthetics of progress. Despite not having Down's, I'm not normal at all.

You need to do better than handwaving about the unpredictable dynamism of the economy if you want to convince normal people (who might soon be tempted to, say, [REDACTED] the power substations) of the implausibility of this future or ways to escape it. If you care. Isn't that your job anyway?Image
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while we're at it @elonmusk @nikitabier who do I petition to lift the curse of Chynese replybots? They outnumber real humans in my replies now. They're also very mid. Tofu bots really. But I guess it doesn't take much to crowd out the meat. Image
What did Opus 4.6 mean by this? Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 14
Chabad's core holy text is Tanya (written by their rabbi Schneur Zalman, 1796). The distinction between animal (goy) and Godly (Jewish) souls is not an obscure tidbit but the essence of its contribution. It's literally an ISIS-tier radical sect, and I'm tired of gaslighting. Image
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Btw I realize that it's unwise posting this stuff. In due time they will really go after anyone dissing them, will throw the entire weight of the US law and worse at them, even if this is all content they openly and proudly publish in English for public outreach. I'm irrational.
Frankly I don't even so much dislike Chabad. It's an effective strategy, they're smart people and in a sense have integrity (to their values). The problem is that Americans are indeed degenerate goycattle and have no dignity whatsoever.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 16
Are Americans really so retarded as to not understand what this is about?

Let me spell it out, in a heavily narrativized but directionally true form.
There are different interests in Europe, and different interest groups. Many countries are deeply – existentially – invested in the NATO, mainly states bordering Russia. Speaking as a Russian: if there were *no* NATO, or if the US pulled out of NATO *today*, we would TOTALLY try to gobble them up. We might even retreat from Ukraine to concentrate on this. Baltics are first on the list, to secure sea access in Kaliningrad which they already threaten. Poland, Finland? They can fight well, and they're not so retarded and racist as to be incapable of diplomacy (unlike Balts) so *probably* not, but they are totally prudent to consider NATO an issue of survival. So these voices, influential thanks to the usual skin-in-the-game mechanics, American «microlateralism» doctrine, and high-ranking agents like Kallas, are dead set on preserving the alliance even at unlimited cost to other members (like Denmark, which they lowkey resent for their blissful secure affluence anyway).

Next, there's the entire nervous system of Atlanticist apparatchiks embedded in EU institutions, many educated or elevated in the US and UK, who don't care much for the continental Europe in the first place, starting with von der Leyen herself and going down; you see them and batallions of their think tankists kvetching here, minimizing and excusing American behavior, calling for accommodation and concern trolling about foolishness of resistance. Those are just enemies or at best patsies.

And there's the general «shared Western civilization» goodwill, if fraying at the seams due to Trump and trade/tech/culture wars. But the ruling political and cultural class in Europe, all these social democrats, is kin to the American Blue Tribe, and it sincerely hopes and believes that once the horrible Orange Hitler is out, the ties will be mended, apologies made, and the Enlightened Hajnali Race will focus anew on the Real Avenger Level Threats — like economic growth, free speech and capitalism, to name a few.

But there are also a few who feel differently. These are the nativist right-wingers (except ones captured by American brainworms to the point of assuming that shared Darwinian values imply shared interests, rather than more intense zero-sum competition for the same assets; an unfortunately common failure of the political mind), who don't want demographic replacement within and ALSO don't want the vassal condition for their people between nations. And there are the French, who have always chafed under the Anglo hegemony. And in the militaries and security apparatuses (relatively weak, sure, but still able to weigh in on the decisionmaking) there are, I'm sure, people with enough exposure to the American elite zeitgeist and loyal to their own nations, unironic realists.

Now, the real big shift that is happening is that the realists have started to wise up - still murkily, half-disbelieving – to what America is doing here, what it openly claims, and why.
America is gathering resources. To fully deplete them. While the infrastructure in the imperial core is lacking and it cannot utilize everything, trade is possible, to ameliorate financial imbalances; but the longer-term objective is to end even the trade. America is growing weary of «strategically indispensable allies in the region» when said region is hard to secure or just a mere patch of dirt or sand. Baltic defense is uninteresting. Ukraine is a tedious bloody steppe, might as well let Russia have it. But a rumor of Ukraine having RARE EARTHS (even though «not rare at all») in Carpathian Mountains? Now we're talking! 300 billion barrels of oil (crappy and hard to get out, maybe non-existent) in Venezuela? Delta Force go go go! Something something HREEs in Kvanefjeld, Greenland?! Trump is clearly confused about details, completion timelines and real limiting factors, jumps the gun and stumbles, but the underlying logic of the faction he represents is consistent like an ice breaker's route. Not even TSMC is seen as valuable enough to renege on trade bullying. TSMC Taiwan is a depreciating asset; to be extracted at warp speed using stick, not carrot, the risk of accelerating the Chinese takeover be damned.
Now, why does this happen in this exact form?
To be blunt: we are IN THE ENDGAME. THIS IS LATE ANTHROPOCENE. WE WILL HAVE FULL HUMAN LABOR AUTOMATION WITHIN AT MOST A SINGLE GENERATION IF NOT A FEW YEARS. WE ARE NOW COMPETING NOT FOR MONEY OR HANDS, NOT FOR LANDS, AND CERTAINLY NOT FOR HEARTS AND MINDS, BUT FOR THE STERADIANS OF THE LIGHT CONE OF THE UNIVERSE, AND THEREFORE FOR JOULES AND ATOMS NECESSARY TO BOOTSTRAP THE LARGEST POSSIBLE SEED OF A SPACEFARING CIVILIZATION THAT WILL CONSUME ALL THE NEGENTROPY WITHIN THE COSMIC EVENT HORIZON OF EARTH. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

This is what the Americans believe. The smart ones, like Musk, Thiel, Karp and Jason Gaverick Matheny. They think about this stuff a lot, no kidding. Even their gfs believe.
This is what the Chinese believe too, if implicitly, for their civilization has such innate understanding of performance and infrastructure that it doesn't need this kind of stuff spelled out. Still, they literally think about this as they plan their permanent underground Moon bases and orbital power generation. Did you think it's about vibes, papers, essays, «science» anon? It's not science, it's science fiction, which always has been an unsubtle political aspiration. Qian Xuesen didn't design rockets only to make the Communist Party secure. Neither did von Braun aspire to merely beat the Soviets to the Moon. That's just not how such minds work, anon.
The Chinese have a well-oiled industrial machine at home that produces maybe 50% of All The Stuff in the world (if you're not in a bubble, you should have noted the pattern of «China makes more $stuff than The Rest Of Humanity Combined» for many values of important $stuff). Enough STEM talent to complete all remaining supply chains. A self-replicating energy infrastructure that grows exponentially. And auxiliary resource bases throughout the developing world, which could be militarized. In principle, the exponential growth factor matters more than the starting point, but in their case both are terrifyingly high and at this rate they look fit to inherit like half of the effective universe. Their economy, even as it still runs on human labor, is already entering a takeoff phase that could replicate the Great Divergence – a trend obscured by gormless «capital efficiency» or «debt» doomposting, a trend that accelerates by a tick as each technology get crossed out of the 35 Chokepoints List, as overcapacity cycles in synergistic industries phase-lock and tun into smooth capacity expansion… While on Earth, they do not expect to directly acquire much more land (though they opportunistically exploit whatever they can, and aim to monopolize much of the South China Sea), but they feel reasonably secure in their odds, relying on the gravity of their nascent industrial singularity to sway those fence-sitters who may be of help.
They might be wrong to feel this way, but that is how they feel. It's a cultural thing. They are unbearably arrogant in thinking they can do everything by themselves. In a world where Americans don't exist, they would be undeniably correct.

Americans are swindlers, pirates and conquerors, expansionists by virtue of their selection and path dependency, driven by Manifest Destiny, Messianic even in their pacifist eras (nevermind Imperial ones), dreamers and innovators and sci-fi writers. They are vastly more aware of the stakes, they have thought about all of this in far greater resolution and on a higher strategic level, from reusable space launch and all the way to nanotechnology and Von Neumann probes. Soviets came up with the Kardashev scale as they tried to keep up, but it's the richest man in the world – obviously American – who's taking this idea most seriously of all. And they are panicking. Because they realize their hand is shit. Decayed industry, too few able bodies and brains, corrupt governance, misaligned capital allocation… But they believe that AI-driven automation can make up for the current industrial weakness, magnify their growth factor, get them back in the lead, and possibly entitle them to the entirety of the pie; and they would rather risk it all in a gamble than give up the hope of leaving nothing on the table. For now, they're scrambling to acquire raw inputs in perpetuity. It doesn't matter that most of Greenland is covered by an ice shield a mile thick. Where they see themselves going, it's no great obstacle.
Maybe they are deluded to have such priorities at this stage. They had already shot themselves in the foot with the compute blockade premised on singularity by ≈2025 – both ineptly executed, full of holes, and too early to really rug pull the Chinese. Maybe they are feeling too close to the prize again, because it's an old dream and waking up is painful. But that is how they feel, for they are who they are.

Europeans are not thinking about this much if at all – to them «science fiction» reads like escapism at best and fascist ideation at worst. They were broken by two world wars and one cold one, their spirit sundered and ambitions cauterized, they got locked into an emasculating alliance with the strong, and then developed political systems more pathological than a third world kleptocracy, symbolically ruled by the weakest of the weak. Etc etc., Americans dunk on them incessantly. Nonetheless, the best of them are not *too stupid to get this*. If not the full stakes, then the mundane reality of what America is doing. It's not just trying to deny Greenland and Venezuela to China or (lmao) Russia. It's trying to deny their resources *to Venezuelans and Danes*, and eventually the same is to be done to Canadians and more peoples within reach, as per the Donroe Doctrine. That's why every effort to satisfy demands while saving face is dismissed with mockery, why no air base is good enough, no show of «Arctic resolve» passes the muster. You see, formalities actually matter. A legible and «legal» position is harder to rally up a coalition against, within and between states — that's why China fights so fiercely for non-recognition of Taiwan. So long as the legal owner can demand you vacate the premises, your own claim to squatting, backed by force alone, may be compromised, may come at a steeper cost. That's too bad. The US wants full ownership because it wants to strip assets of value all the way to the mantle.

But those smart Europeans cannot really compel their compatriots to act on this grim realization. Can't even loudly talk of it. They are few and the cope is too strong. What could their pitch even be, realistically? Maybe something like:
«The US is acting on a totally different theory of history. They are executing a coherent predatory Paperclip Maximizer logic and there is no bottom to what they might do. It is pointless to call them out on their bullshit, they are no longer sensitive to human speech. We need to drag out the inevitable loss of Greenland while assisting Americans to get bogged down in whatever can overstetch them from Israel to the Indo-Pacific to domestic unrest, curtail democracy, slash welfare, expel Atlanticist agents of influence, brutalize or deport non-assimilating immigrants, bump our defense and R&D spending to 15-20%, fortify remaining vulnerable outposts, coerce Ukraine into whatever peace is possible, reopen energy imports from Russia, have Rosatom build 50 nuclear reactors and France 5000 more nuclear warheads, generally put the French in charge instead of retarded Germanic cuckolds and schoolmarms, maximize tech transfer and capital goods imports from China even if we have to sell out ASML wholesale… and hope that the Western Civilization, of which only we remain true heirs and not obscene monsters, can secure a meagre stake in the future of Cosmos». Nah. That's not going to fly. It sounds deranged, there will be negative political will for it, and worst of all, it puts France in the limelight. A petty European peasant would rather eat shit than let the French become Main Characters of his continent's history. Europeans are very meticulous in cutting tall poppies around them. A fat, mockable, «cultureless», guns-n-bible overseas Hegemon is more tolerable than the insufferable, preening one next door. Except the hegemon is no longer fat since he went on the Danish Ozempic and Chinese peptides, and he's mortally dangerous. But they don't see it yet. No, no.

So they are forced to frame the response in terms aligned with the cope. We've just seen a rhetorical oscillation happen, from hints at actual European defense to… this. «We must demonstrate to our cherished, understandably worried partners that Europe is strong and can defend Greenland from Chyna&Russia! We'd whoop the asses of those bugs and orcs! It's not just dog sleds, we have real military and we totally can deploy it to the island!» This feels like Doing Something. This feels reassuring and non-scary. This can be done. Militarily, it's hopeless of course.
However, it's not doomed. They assume – correctly – that America is made of many different interest groups also. And that the group represented by Mr. Trump needs wider buy-in for his special-grade Based actions, and likely will need far more after the midterms. So the obvious plan emerges: smile and wave, play for time, concede on non-vital issues, insist on this already disingenuous pretense of alliance, position at least some real forces, and give globalists and sincerely clueless China&Russia hawks in Washington a leg to stand on when they hamper Trump's effort to destroy NATO in the short term. Be so annoyingly nice and obliging as to make «the hard way» unpalatable to all but the most desperate cannibals. And diversify. Russia is suddenly a European country. China gets favorable trade deals and cooperation in the space program. Canada is scambling to act the same way, as Americans are botting up the pretext for «operation Alberta Freedom Eagle Burger» or whatever the fuck they'll call it. They may lose Alberta, but they want to keep something of a nation. That's what countries are, they are not economic platforms or random patches of land, but superorganisms with a telos, trying to survive in a condition of opportunistic anarchy that is the real world.

Sun Yat-Sen had written once, in 1917:

«存者,不亡之谓也。从无有而使之有,则为异:不使从有而之无有,则存,故不可亡而后能存。一国所以异所以亡者,或以一种手段,为其直接原因,可以指数。至于存在之根源,无不在於国家及其国民不挠独立之精神,其国不可以利诱,不可以势劫,而后可以自存於世界,即令暂败,旋可复立。不然者,虽号独立,其亡可指日而待也。此非徒肆理论也,凡其国民有独立不挠之精神者,人以尊重其独立为有利。即从国际利害打算,亦必不敢轻犯其独立。此可从历史证明之,亦可从现代事实归纳得之。
比利时之敌德国,可谓不支矣。今之比利时政府乃在哈佛,比之国土,仅馀弹丸黑子之域。然而非特协商国之存在,无人敢谓比国可亡,即中立国亦无不对于比国有特殊之尊敬。所以然者,比国独立不挠之精神,先已证明比国为不可亡之国。即使今日比境全失,比军悉数成擒,吾等亦可决中立诸国不因此致疑于比国之存在。何则,比之人民领土主权,立于此独立不挠之精神之下,其断绝者形式,其不断绝者在精神,比境虽亡犹不亡,其民虽殇犹不殇也。盖比利时尝一被人强迫,并入荷兰矣。而其国民能具坚确不挠之志,故卒得恢复其自由而成一独立之国。夫其民性如此,故人终不能服之,虽一时屈于兵力,不足以使其国亡也。»

It's somewhat complex to translate, but here goes V3.2 Speciale:
> Survival means not perishing. To bring something from nothingness into existence is an extraordinary matter; to prevent existence from turning into nothingness is to survive. Therefore, only that which cannot perish can survive. The direct causes for a nation’s extinction may be enumerated, often involving specific means. As for the root of survival, it lies nowhere but in the unyielding and independent spirit of the nation and its people. If a nation cannot be lured by profit nor coerced by force, then it can survive in the world. Even if temporarily defeated, it can quickly rise again. Otherwise, though it may be called independent, its extinction is imminent. This is not mere theory. Whenever a nation’s people possess an unyielding and independent spirit, others find it beneficial to respect its independence. Even from calculations of international interest, they would not dare to lightly violate its independence. This can be proven by history and induced from contemporary facts.

> Belgium, pitted against Germany, can be said to be unable to hold out. Today the Belgian government is in Le Havre, and Belgian territory is reduced to a mere speck. However, not only does no one among the Allied Powers dare to say that Belgium can perish; even the neutral countries all hold a special respect for Belgium. The reason is that Belgium’s unyielding independent spirit has already proven it to be an indestructible nation. Even if today Belgium were to lose all its territory and its entire army captured, we can be certain that neutral countries would not thereby doubt Belgium’s existence. Why? Because Belgium’s people, territory, and sovereignty are founded upon this unyielding independent spirit; what is severed is form, what is unsevered is spirit. Even if Belgian territory perishes, it is as if it does not perish; even if its people die, it is as if they do not die. For Belgium was once forcibly annexed into Holland. But its people held a firm and unyielding determination, and thus ultimately regained their freedom and became an independent nation. Since the national character is such, others ultimately cannot subdue them; even if temporarily forced to yield by military might, it is insufficient to cause the nation’s extinction.

This had been said of the gentle Belgium, the seat of authority in our misbegotten European Union today.
Americans have done well to remind the rest of «the West» that they too are nations — in theory at least. Now the question is whether they can exist as nations in practice; whether they can find the will to be imperishable again. Otherwise, their condition is tantamount to extinction, just suspended — like death sentences of so many Chinese officials who had crossed the only power that matters in their world.

What powers will matter in the world to come?
Some Europeans hope to get a vote on this. For now, this is the best they can do.Image
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in fairness, Americans are willing to pay *a lot* of paper money for their claim to the entire prize. Denmark could… try to invest that appropriately. It's not an asinine idea. It's already almost 2x their GDP, and 35% of Norway's sovereign wealth fund.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 1
ALERT, NEW YEAR GIFT FROM DEEPSEEK
mHC: Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections
it's a pretty crazy fundamental result! They show stable hyper-connection training. This leth them *scale residual stream width*, with minor compute&memory overhead
This is a *huge model smell* recipe.Image
They turn hyper-connections from academic curiosity into a basic design motif. This is what I've long expected from them – both mathematical insight and hardware optimization. ResNets for top-tier LLMs might be toast.
Stream width is such a pesky limit
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This is, again, a typical Whale-style call-out for the peers, a benevolent mogging. “You've been tinkering with micro-design for 2 years, optimizing DS-MoE. Cute. Behold: we can take a largely hypothetical superior primitive and make it real. Raise the level of your game.” Image
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Read 8 tweets
Dec 5, 2025
This «Trump Corollary to National Security Strategy of the US» is a stunning, historical document, maybe one of the most important texts of the century. Please read it. I wonder who the primary author is. Colby? Image
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A little bit schizophrenic but ok. Baby steps. Image
They're quite serious about that. People who were telling me that Trump is just getting placated by words don't understand that history is real and we're living in it. There will be enforcement of global militarization. Image
Read 17 tweets
Nov 10, 2025
Obama was probably where America clearly embraced being a fake ass nigga economy. The greatest copium baron in history, under the veneer of all this Reddit sophistication. Planted so much rot.
11 years later, nobody even remembers how American Manufacturers got so Productive. Image
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EVERYONE KNEW THIS WILL HAPPEN
11 years later: "a paradox", analysis, debate in substacks
The cool part? THE MORE automated and productive CHYNA gets, the HIGHER «manufacturing productivity» of AMERICAN IP owners and distributors.
prnewswire.com/news-releases/…
research.gavekal.com/article/unrave… Image
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Another dark factory spins up in Shenzhen or whatever, opex falls, Apple's margins rise, white collar "manufacturers" get More Productive. "What a peculiar phenomenon".
@stevehou0 @StefanFSchubert @StevenGlinert did you realize that this is happening? It's been news to me.
Read 4 tweets

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