Thread by @philippilk

☢️🚨☢️ 1/ Russia announced the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile is now active. The world is now one conventional strike on Russia away from nuclear war. Burevestnik’s deployment is part of a new defensive posture by Russia that seems misunderstood in the West. 🧵

2/ The key to understanding the novelty is twofold. First, its power source: a nuclear-powered ramjet engine. The mini nuclear reactor produces enormous amounts of heat. This heats the air and propels the missile.

3/ Because it’s powered by a mini nuclear reactor, just like a nuclear-powered submarine the engine can run indefinitely. This means that the Burevestnik can fly indefinitely.

4/ The second factor that makes the Burevestnik unique is the fact it flies low. Very low. 50-100 meters. If you’ve ever been near an airport when a plane is coming in you know this is low enough to see, hear and even feel the aircraft.

5/ This likely means it has a computer on board that tracks terrain and adjusts the flight of the missile to the height of the ground. Fighter jets sometimes do this sort of manoeuvring but it’s considered dangerous.

5/ This low flight path makes it very difficult, if not almost impossible for most radar to detect it. This especially so at longer ranges as the weapon’s flight path is masked by the earth’s curvature.

6/ Even if the Burevestnik is detected by radar, it can manoeuvre. Manoeuvring “vertically and horizontally” at low altitudes would make it a very difficult target.

7/ Next we need to understand how and why it would be used. This has to do with the change to Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Putin announced these changes last November. As usual Westerners were fed nonsense about these changes being told it was aimless posturing by “failed Russia”.

8/ In fact, the changes gave the Russians the ability to launch nuclear weapons in the case of a conventional strike against Russia that threatens the “sovereignty and territorial integrity” of Russia - or of Belarus.

9/ The Russians are talking here about any attempt to destroy the Russian government through a so-called “decapitation strike”.

10/ Here’s how it would play out. If Russia were concerned that the Western powers were moving for a decapitation strike, or any other strike that would threaten the Russian state, they would launch the Burevestniks.

11/ The Burevestniks would then start to “loiter” at various points around the earth - likely within striking range of their targets.

12/ These targets would very likely be the decision-making centres in the West. The Russians alluded to this being the purpose of the weapon explicitly.

13/ At this point it becomes a case of “do you feel lucky, punk”. If the West want to try a decapitation strike or anything similar on Russia, they will be facing down a Burevestnik strike on themselves.

14/ What weapons would the West be using? Presumably stealth aircraft like the F35. Maybe some cruise missiles like the Tomahawk. Can these fly against Russian air defence? Maybe. Maybe not. Probably not, to be honest.

15/ Pretty solid defence system. What is the downside? Risk. This is a hugely risky defence posture. It radically raises the prospect for a nuclear exchange.

16/ If the West started to escalate conventionally - like they are doing now with discussions of giving Tomahawks to Ukraine - this might trigger the Russians to hunker down and launch countermeasures like the Burevestnik.

17/ This could produce an escalatory dynamic where the West feels pushed to launch a dangerous conventional decapitation strike which then triggers a Burevestnik strike. At this point the West could very likely launch its nuclear weapons.

18/ We really need new arms control talks. Weapons like the Burevestnik should not exist. In the past we set limits on what sort of weapons should be allowed precisely to prevent the risk of nuclear holocaust. We need to get back to this. ASAP.