Brief Overview of Frontline Changes Over the Past Month 🧵
In the Sumy direction, the frontline did not change significantly in October. Russian forces made minor gains near Volodymyrivka and Varachyne, while intense fighting continues near Yunakivka 1/12
In the Kharkiv region, activity has increased near Vovchansk. The RuAF have secured the territory of the oil extraction plant, crossed the Vovcha River and are trying to advance further south along the railway. To the southwest, assault groups have reached the outskirts of Synelnykove 2/12
In the border area of the Kharkiv region, the RuAF are advancing near Odradne and Bolohivka, which, as we assess, aims to establish a "buffer zone" uniting the territories near Milove and the areas near Stroivka and Topoli, along the Oskil River 3/12
In Kupiansk, Russian soldiers are already operating in the town center, while individual assault groups have been observed in the Yuvileinyi neighborhood in the southwestern part, where the main supply route for the AFU on the western bank of the Oskil River passes 4/12
In the Lyman direction, the RuAF are engaged in intense fighting near Drobysheve and Yampil, seeking to reach the Siverskyi Donets River north and south of Lyman. The AFU, however, retain control of Drobysheve and the southern part of the village of Torske 5/12
Russian forces are also attempting to encircle Siversk: south of it, they have been observed in Pereizne and are already entering Zvanivka, while to the northeast, the territory between Serebrianka and Dronivka remains contested 6/12
In the Kostiantynivka direction, the RuAF are concentrating in the area of Oleksandro-Shultyne and Bila Hora, in preparation for an attempt to enter the Santurinivka district of Kostiantynivka through the Yahidka and Stroitel dacha areas 7/12
Although at the beginning of the month, the RuAF attempted to expand the Dobropillia salient, including toward the Dobropillia-Kramatorsk highway, the AFU counterattacked in the second half of the month, significantly reducing the salient in the area near Nove Shakhove and liberating Kucheriv Yar, Sukhets and Zatyshok 8/12
At the base of the Dobropillia salient, the RuAF also attacked Volodymyrivka and Shakhove, taking advantage of poor weather conditions and deploying up to several dozen armored vehicles simultaneously 9/12
In the Pokrovsk direction, the RuAF tactic of infiltrating small assault groups combined with pressure on Ukrainian logistics has yielded results: the AFU have lost the southern part of Pokrovsk, and Russian assault troops have been seen in the northern part, beyond the railway line. Also, Russian soldiers are present on the eastern outskirts of Myrnohrad 10/12
The RuAF have made their deepest advances in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, reaching the Yanchur River between Poltavka and Yehorivka, ending up within 3 km [1.86 mi] of the highway between Dnipro and Huliaipole and securing positions on the western bank 11/12
On the Zaporizhzhia axis, the RuAF made several attempts to enter Mala Tokmachka with infantry but failed to achieve their objectives. Slightly to the west, Russian forces reached the southern outskirts of Stepnohirsk and began moving north along the shore of the former Kakhovka Reservoir, with individual soldiers already spotted in Prymorske 12/12
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In the Dobropillia direction, Ukrainian forces have continued mopping-up the northern part of the salient over the past few days. They have fully liberated the villages of Kucheriv Yar, Sukhetske and Zatyshok and have advanced near Nove Shakhove 1/4
Ukraine’s General Staff acknowledges the extent of Russian infiltration into Pokrovsk, saying at least 200 RuAF soldiers are now inside the town 2/4
Russian forces strike a passenger bus in the Sumy region and residential buildings in Kyiv, killing at least 6 people and injuring a total of 59. Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, hit a dam in Russia’s Belgorod region 3/4
🧵1/ In the Pokrovsk direction, the AFU have recently begun actively counterattacking in the Dobropillia breakthrough, advancing near the villages of Razine and Novotoretske. It appears that Ukrainian forces intend to cut off the main part of the Dobropillia salient along the Kazenyi Torets River by advancing from the north and south. The AFU also likely cleared another section of the salient west of Kucheriv Yar and south of Zolotyi Kolodiaz
2/ Near Boikivka, a Ukrainian soldier used a ruse to eliminate two Russian servicemen. Knowing Russians moved in small, disconnected groups, he pretended to be one of them. Gaining their trust, he followed them off open ground, then shot both. His actions aren't considered a war crime, as he wore no enemy uniform or insignia
3/ Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov reported on the mass production of radio detectors for Supercam drones which detect the approach of interceptor drones and automatically issue an evasion command
🧵1/ CIT records the highest number of civilians casualties since january 2024 for two months in a Row. Attacks and shelling on both sides of the frontline in June 2025 killed at least 282 civilians and wounded a minimum of 1,972
2/ The situation worsened in July, when 335 people lost their lives, almost 19% more than in June. 2,228 civilians were injured, marking a 13% increase
3/ While an increase in civilian casualties was also observed during last year's summer, the escalation in 2025 is much more severe. The number of fatalities over the two summer months increased by 25% and injuries rose by nearly 30% compared to the same period last year
For those who somehow missed our piece on T-90M MBTs or don't have time for longreads, here are key takeaways from the research👇
🧵1/12
2/ Before T-90M serial production began in 2020, Uralvagonzavod had produced between 120 and 150 original T-90 tanks, along with roughly 280 T-90A models
3/ UVZ managed to preserve its production capacities. At the peak in the 2010s, the plant could produce up to 140 tanks annually, while also manufacturing tank assembly kits
The partial lift of the ban on the use of Western weapons on Russian territory has proven life-saving for Kharkiv. Lifting remaining restrictions would provide even greater protection 1/17
🧵👇 notes.citeam.org/lift-the-ban-g…
One month after the start of the Russian offensive on the Kharkiv axis, the US has relaxed restrictions on the use of precision weapons against targets on Russian territory, allowing the use of HIMARS MLRS rockets in Russian regions bordering Ukraine 2/17 politico.com/news/2024/05/3…
The debate over the interpretation of the restrictions continues to this day. However, the ban on using ATACMS with a range of 290 km [180 mi] remains in place. The US also specifically prohibited targeting Russian aircraft located on nearby airbases 3/17 washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/…
1/7 In Jan. 2023, photos emerged of Russian MT-LB armored vehicles modified with naval anti-aircraft weapons. Different types were identified by different heavy machine gun or autocannon deck mounts. We expect them to be used as self-propelled AA systems notes.citeam.org/tankenstein
2/7 Photos from mid-Jan. 2023 show 3 types of modified vehicles:
- with a 12.7mm DShK M1938 HMG;
- with a 2M-1 twin 12.7mm DShK(M) deck mount;
- with a 2M-7 twin 14.5mm KPV deck mount
3/7 Soon they were used on the frontline, and lost: in February, Ukraine captured a vehicle with a twin 14.5mm mount on an MT-LB chassis near Vuhledar, which likely belonged to the 1st Slavyanskaya Motorized Rifles Brigade (of the former "DPR" troops)