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Oct. 29 — China quietly changed the rules.
From 2026, every silver export will require an individual license per contract.
No quota, no freedom.
You want silver out of China? You’ll need Beijing’s permission. 🇨🇳
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Official MOFCOM Notice No.69:
“In 2026, silver exports will continue under license management.
Exporters must apply for an export license for each valid contract before customs clearance.”
That’s a polite way of saying:
China now controls every ounce leaving the country.
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This isn’t just bureaucracy.
It’s strategic nationalization of flow.
Each shipment will be approved — or denied — by the state.
Silver is now classified as a resource of national interest.
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Meanwhile in Washington… 🇺🇸
The USGS is about to add silver to the Critical Minerals List.
First time ever.
Reason? It’s essential for solar, EVs, semiconductors, and defense — and America imports most of it.
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Two superpowers.
One goal:
Secure silver.
China locks exports.
The US calls it critical.
The message is the same: this metal is strategic.
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The timing is brutal.
Global demand for silver is exploding —
⚡ Solar panels
🚗 Electric vehicles
💾 AI chips
🩺 Medical tech
But the world’s biggest refiner just slammed the door.
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When China locks metal at the same time the US prepares to hoard it, what happens to the rest of the world?
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Europe? Imports 97% of its silver.
Japan and Korea? Zero mines.
They depend on Chinese refineries.
Now they’ll pay whatever price the market demands — if they can even get supply.
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Latin America (Mexico, Peru, Chile) still digs it up,
but most concentrate goes… to China.
If China keeps the refined metal, the West has no replacement capacity.
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This is how global markets fragment:
Paper price in New York.
Physical premium in Shanghai.
Scarcity in Europe.
The “spot price” becomes meaningless.
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And when producer nations realize what they hold…
they’ll follow China’s lead — restricting exports, demanding profit-sharing, or bartering metal for tech.
That’s when silver stops being a commodity…
and becomes a weapon of negotiation.
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So let’s be honest:
They just told you without telling you.
💥 Silver is strategic.
🩶 Physical will rule.
⏳ And time is running out.
🧵 China’s New Gold Rules: Bloomberg calls it a setback — but it’s actually a cleanup. 🥇🇨🇳
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Bloomberg says “China ends gold tax break.”
Reality? China just made it easier for ordinary people to stack gold legally and tax-free.
Let’s break it down 👇
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From November 2025:
🔹 Annual tax-free limit for personal gold sales jumps from 200 000 RMB ($27 k) to 500 000 RMB ($70 k).
🔹 That means millions of Chinese can now buy, hold, and sell gold without paying VAT or income tax.
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Plus — a brand-new tax deduction for gold investors.
If you invest through official channels (bars, ETFs, SGE), you can deduct 10 % of your annual gold investment from your taxable income.
The Fed ends its balance sheet wind-down on December 1.
QT is over.
Translation?
💸 Liquidity is coming back.
The era of “tightening” quietly flips to loosening.
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At the same time…
December is the front & delivery month at the COMEX.
That’s when the biggest physical deliveries take place.
And London (LBMA) is already running low. 👇
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📉 TF Metals Report:
London silver stocks drawn down again in October
46 M oz drained from New York
22 M oz drained from Shanghai
Part of that metal was shipped to London just to keep it alive
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Yesterday’s Open Interest jumped +1,892 contracts — clear signal that new money entered the market, not just short-term traders rolling positions.
Today? Price dropped to $48.68, only to bounce hard back above $49.00.
That’s not random. That’s buyers defending the floor.
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When price dips with volume rising and open interest expands, it means someone’s accumulating — not running away.
Add to that 819 EFP contracts yesterday (exchange for physical).
Translation?
They’re moving silver off COMEX and locking in real metal.
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The pattern is classic:
💥 Manipulative drop →
💪 Strong defense →
🔥 Short squeeze setup.
You can almost feel the tension.
If $49.00 breaks cleanly, next targets sit at $49.40–$49.60, and beyond that… the shorts will start sweating.