VA AG race will be a test of a well-known bias in polling: social desirability bias. Typically when you have a candidate w a scandal, they overperform their polling as there are respondents who, instead of giving their actual opinion, give the socially acceptable answer.
In @Nick_Goedert's 2014 paper examining scandal-tarred incumbents for Congress:
"polls of incumbents not accused of scandal overestimate incumbent support by 4.1%, polls of scandal-tarred incumbents underestimate incumbent support by 2.6%; the total scandal effect
is 6.7%."
"polls of incumbents not accused of scandal overestimate incumbent support by 4.1%, polls of scandal-tarred incumbents underestimate incumbent support by 2.6%; the total scandal effect
is 6.7%."
In 2023, Susanna Gibson outperformed both sides' final internals in her race for the VA HoD by a few percentage points. Of note though, unlike Gibson, Jones has been continually hit on the airwaves for his scandal.
Still, a similar overperformance to Gibson's would put Jones over the top based on public polling averages.
However, despite multiple scandals for Mark Robinson in NC-GOV 2024, polls hit the margin for that race right on the head. This is the only instance though where I've seen a candidate w/ a scandal not overperform polling.
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