Ryan Heath Profile picture
Nov 3 25 tweets 5 min read Read on X
It’s time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Drake London’s target shares in his previous 3 games that Darnell Mooney started and finished this year:

- 19.0%
- 18.6%
- 18.4%

Drake London’s target share today: 37.8%
2. Although Terrell Jennings received the only backfield carry inside the 5…

…TreVeyon Henderson tied for a team-high six targets (20.7% target share), and his 18.3 weighted opportunities were the most by a Patriots RB all season.

The role could have been worse, technically.
3. We got a clearer picture of the Vikings’ backfield this week in a non-blowout.

Aaron Jones:
- 47% backfield carry share
- 8.0% target share (10.7% over the L2 weeks)

Jordan Mason:
- 53% carry share
- 4 of the team’s 5 red zone carries (the 5th went to J.J. McCarthy)

Two low-end FLEXes.
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown has now seen over one-third of his team’s targets in 5 separate games this year.

For perspective, only three WRs — Malik Nabers, Puka Nacua, and Drake London — matched or exceeded that last year.

It is only Week 9.
5. It was finally the Rico Dowdle show again in Carolina!

- 83% carry share
- 15% target share
- 2 of 2 carries inside the 5

Dowdle is now averaging 173.0 rushing YPG and 31.5 FPG across his three games with 20+ touches this year.
6. Tucker Kraft left early in the 3rd quarter with a likely ACL tear.

The Packers’ target shares after he left:

Romeo Doubs - 21.1%
Luke Musgrave - 15.8%
Christian Watson - 15.8%
Savion Williams - 10.5%
Josh Jacobs - 10.5%

Matthew Golden also left with a shoulder injury.
Doubs has hit a 27% target share in 3 of his last 4 games, but is averaging just 12.3 FPG over that span.

Would expect him to continue leading the team in targets. But there’s a real chance Christian Watson starts being relied on even more for splash plays.
7. Troy Franklin has led the Broncos in target share over each of the past three weeks (20.0%, 27.6%, 27.0%, in sequence).

He’s only exceeded 13.0 fantasy points in one of those three games. But he clearly has the best role among Broncos WRs.
8. The Texans gave the ball to fullback British Brooks on two of their three backfield attempts inside the 5-yard line (after Chubb's failed).

He didn’t convert either, but this definitely takes some wind out of the sails of Woody Marks’ upside case.
9. Kyle Monangai’s opportunity metrics without D’Andre Swift today:

- 84% backfield carry share
- 13.5% target share
- 27.9 weighted opportunities (the most by a Bears RB in any game this season)
10. Colston Loveland’s 118 receiving yards in Week 9 were the 2nd-most by a Bears receiver in any game this season.

Since the Bears’ Week 5 bye, Loveland and Tyler Warren are responsible for the exact same percentage of their teams’ receiving yards (18.9%).
11. Chase Brown received 14 targets today.

That ties Christian McCaffrey’s Week 3 for the most by any RB in a game this season.

Brown’s carry share shot back up to 85% today, after being below 67% in each of his last four games.

He’s still the only Bengals RB to receive a carry inside the 5 this year.

We’re so back?
12. 4 of Jaret Patterson’s 9 carries came on the Chargers’ final clock-killing drive…

…but Kimani Vidal’s carry share has now declined for two straight weeks:

W6 - 75%
W7 - 90%
W8 - 64%
W9 - 57%
13. It was Chimere Dike who scored the punt return TD, but Titans rookie Elic Ayomanor led the team when he set a season-high 28.6% target share this week.

In fact, that’s the highest target share any Titan has commanded since Week 1, when Clavin Ridley matched this number.
14. George Kittle has played three full games this season. In them, he’s seen target shares of 7.7%, 15.6%, and 16.7%.

For comparison, Kittle commanded at least a 20% target share in 6 of his 8 full games without Brandon Aiyuk last year, averaging 16.3 FPG.
15. Tyrone Tracy received just a 38% backfield carry share, with Devin Singletary taking the rest, including the only one inside the 10.

(Tracy did get banged up in the 3rd quarter, but that didn’t affect these numbers much; Singletary had just two touches after Tracy’s last.)
16. Jonathan Taylor in the Colts’ 7 wins this season:

- 110.6 rushing YPG (RB1)
- 18.4 weighted opportunities/game (RB4)
- 28.9 FPG (RB1)

In their 2 losses:

- 60.5 rushing YPG (RB21)
- 14.1 weighted opportunities/game (RB18)
- 11.2 FPG (RB25)
17. Jaylen Warren over his last five games:

- 73% backfield carry share
- 7 of 8 carries inside the 10-yard line
- 15.0 weighted opportunities/game (would rank ~RB12)

Today was just the second time Kenneth Gainwell out-targeted Warren over this span, but 2 TDs make up for it.
18. Parker Washington has run a route on more than half his team’s dropbacks in four games this year.

He’s hit at least a 20% target share in three of those four.

But today was the first game within that sample he’s caught more than 40% of his targets.
19. Even if we count overtime as a quarter, Brock Bowers has essentially played 8 quarters of healthy football this year.

His “per four quarters” averages in that span:

- 10.5 targets (would rank ~WR3)
- 115.0 receiving yards (~WR2)
- 29.3 fantasy points (~WR1)
20. The Saints have played just over 5 quarters under Tyler Shough over the past 2 weeks.

Targets / yards / fantasy points over that span:

Rashid Shaheed: 17 / 113 / 22.3
Juwan Johnson: 10 / 66 / 18.6
Chris Olave: 10 / 77 / 14.7

If he doesn’t get traded, Shaheed may be Shough’s favorite.
21. Kyren Williams’ backfield carry shares over the past four weeks:

W5: 93% (the game Corum fumbled)
W6: 72%
W7: 50%
W9: 66%

But Williams has 6 of 7 carries inside the 5 and is averaging 18.7 FPG over this span. He isn’t really losing the high-value touches.
22. Khalil Shakir led or tied for the team lead in target share (30.8%) for the 5th straight game.

Shakir’s averages over that span:

- 26.6% target share (~WR9)
- 55.6 receiving YPG (~WR37)
- 13.5 FPG (~WR23)
23. The Chiefs’ backfield in their first full game without Isiah Pacheco:

Kareem Hunt: 69% carry share, 5.9% target share, 3 carries inside the 5 (lost one to Rashee Rice)

Brashard Smith: 19% carry share, 2.9% target share

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 12% carry share

Hunt is an RB2
That’s all I’ve got for you!

If you found this useful, make sure you’re following me (@RyanJ_Heath) and @FantasyPtsData for more throughout the week.

Enjoy the rest of SNF!

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More from @RyanJ_Heath

Oct 27
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. The Browns’ backfield after Quinshon Judkins left the game with a shoulder injury:

Dylan Sampson: 3 of 3 backfield carries, 6 targets (30.0% target share)

Jerome Ford: Just one target (on a 1st and 10)
If Sampson is both the primary early-down back and plays on some passing downs with Judkins out, he goes straight to the top-18 discussion at the position.

This is a player the Browns fed for 17.8 XFP in Week 1.

If the Judkins injury news turns negative, I’d empty my FAAB.
2. TreVeyon Henderson fumbled inside the 10-yard line with 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter.

And his usage was largely the same; his 38% backfield carry share was the exact same as Week 1.

But he did have his first 20+ yard run of the season!
Read 28 tweets
Oct 20
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Blake Corum out-carried Kyren Williams 10 to 5 in the 2nd half of a blowout.

In the 1st half, Williams led in carries 7-2 and commanded 80% of the backfield’s weighted opportunities, closer to the norm.
2. Travis Hunter’s 29.2% target share was the highest mark by a Jaguars player in any game this year.

His 17.4% target share on the season isn’t thaaat far behind Emeka Egbuka and Tetairoa McMillan (each at 21.5%).
3. The positive TD regression hit for Chris Olave!

He entered the week leading all WRs in XFP/G (20.0). Today marked his lowest target share of the season (21.9%), but his first game above 16.0 fantasy points.

Rashid Shaheed hit his highest target share of the year (28.1%).
Read 34 tweets
Oct 13
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Over his past two games without Braelon Allen, Breece Hall is commanding:

- 92% of backfield carries
- 100% of backfield rush attempts inside the red zone

…But that’s led to just 12.2 FPG. Here's why:
…At the same time, this offense has died.

Excluding the 4th quarter against the Cowboys, Justin Fields has thrown for just 191 yards over the past two weeks.

(And obnoxiously, Isaiah Davis has out-targeted Hall (5 to 4) in that timeframe.)
2. With Tyler Badie inactive, RJ Harvey commanded a season-high 13.3% target share.

Harvey has now commanded at least an 11% target share in 3 of his last 4 games.

For perspective, just 8 RBs have hit an 11% target share in 4 separate games this year.
Read 32 tweets
Oct 6
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. In his first start, Browns rookie QB Dillon Gabriel targeted TEs on 39.4% of his pass attempts.

For comparison, David Njoku and Harold Fannin had combined for just a 26.8% target share entering today.
2. Jordan Addison was benched in the 1st quarter. But from that point on, the Vikings’ target shares broke down as:

Justin Jefferson - 26.9%
Jordan Addison - 23.1%
T.J. Hockenson - 15.4%

Hockenson has hit a 20% target share in just 2 of his last 12 games with Addison.
3. The Raiders trailed by multiple scores for most of the game.

But Ashton Jeanty set a career-high 19.4% target share, saving his day with 9.2 fantasy points coming through the air.

He also had 14 of 15 backfield carries through the first three quarters. Encouraging usage!
Read 25 tweets
Sep 29
Time to drop all my stats and fantasy takeaways recapping today’s games, via @FantasyPtsData!

1. The Giants’ targets shares for the ~36 minutes after Malik Nabers went down:

Theo Johnson - 30.8%
Wan’Dale Robinson - 30.8%
Darius Slayton - 15.4%
Cam Skattebo - 15.4%
2. Speaking of Skattebo, he commanded 83% of the backfield’s weighted opportunities in his first full game without Tyrone Tracy.

That included all 5(!) backfield carries inside the 10.

Offense is probably toast without Nabers, but not much left to do besides feature Skattebo.
3. With Panthers TE Ja’Tavion Sanders out, Tommy Tremble took over and tied for the team target share lead (22.2%).

In the only game Sanders missed last year, Tremble scored 12.7 fantasy points on a 98% route share.

He’s in streaming consideration for any games Sanders misses.
Read 28 tweets
Sep 22
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games, via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Quinshon Judkins is now the Browns’ early-down workhorse.

- 19 of 20 backfield carries

- All 3 opportunities inside the 10

Jerome Ford still had both 3rd-down targets, but Judkins is now in RB2 land.
@FantasyPtsData 2. With Jayden Reed out, Josh Jacobs (who else) became the Packers’ featured receiving weapon. Target shares:

Josh Jacobs - 36%
Matthew Golden - 16%
Dotayvion Wicks - 16%
Tucker Kraft - 16%
Romeo Doubs - 8%

This was Jacobs’ highest single-game target share since at least 2021.
@FantasyPtsData 3. Aaron Rodgers wanted Jaylen Warren more involved this week. And that’s exactly what we saw:

- 82% backfield carry share (up from 58%, 70% last two weeks)

- 2 of 3 backfield attempts inside the 5

- A 26.1% target share

Those shares were both career-highs.
Read 34 tweets

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