Trump has been praising Putin for over a decade, yet somehow this is news. It shouldn't be complicated to understand: Trump admires Putin and Trump wants to do business with Russia. It's been this way for years and it is not going to change. 🧵
During the 2016 election, Trump said that Putin was a better president than Obama. Also during the campaign, Trump claimed that Putin would never invade Ukraine; when it was pointed out that he already had, Trump blamed Obama for the annexation of Crimea, not Putin.
Once elected, he appointed as Secretary of State a man who had been given the Order of Friendship by Putin. His first National Security Advisor had been paid $45,000 to give a speech at RT's anniversary party just over a year before he was appointed.
In Trump's 1st term, Congress passed CAATSA because they were so concerned that he would try to lift sanctions against Russia. Trump repeatedly said that "getting along" with Russia would be a good thing. He said Crimea was Russian. He pushed for Russia's readmission into the G8.
Also during his 1st term, Trump praised Russia's construction of the Kerch bridge and the expansion of military facilites in occupied Crimea. He said Russia had "substantially added billions of dollars" to Crimea. trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-stat…
After the Skripal poisonings, the 1st Trump administration expelled Russia diplomats and imposed sanctions. But Trump himself claimed to doubt that Russia was responsible and later said he'd been tricked into taking action against Russia. theguardian.com/us-news/2019/o…
In his 1st term, Trump often complained about Germany buying Russian gas. But this always seemed to be a way to exert pressure on Germany rather than a concern about Russia. It's the same thing today: the pressure on India, China, etc is not about the war, it's about competition.
All through this year, the Trump administration has been signalling that things are changing, Trump is finally running out of patience with Putin, Trump will take action to force Russia to peace talks. There has never been the slightest bit of evidence for this.
The Trump admin will keep trying to string along the media and those NATO governments who want to believe what it's saying. There's no evidence this is ever going to change. At this point, the responsibility for this endlessly recycling itself lies with those willing to be duped.
Anyone thinking about writing another piece in a week or so about Trump finally trying to pressure Russia into peace talks needs to print this quote out and tape it up everywhere. "There is no final straw." There. Is. No. Final. Straw.
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One last thing on Trump's embarrassing UN speech: watching it - in particular, listening to him read it - makes it clear that Trump has absolutely no interest in foreign policy. The only time he seemed remotely engaged was when he was complaining or bragging. That matters.🧵
Other presidents all had sets of ideas, however poorly thought through, about foreign policy: about the world and the US's place in it, what desirable goals and bearable outcomes are for the US, what will make the world more stable. Trump doesn't seem to care about any of that.
Trump's approach to foreign policy appears to be driven solely by the quest for personal benefits: status (praise, flattery, deference) and enrichment. He seems to have no understanding of, or interest in, anything larger than himself, including the interests of the US.
Important to note that there are different types of US-Russia presidential meetings. This type is particularly significant and thus a very clear sign of the Trump administration's desire to align with the Kremlin. 🧵
Before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, it was standard for new US and Russian presidents to meet. This allowed them to work through issues of concern to the US (as the vastly more powerful state, the agenda was set by the US). This happened even when relations were cool.
Traditionally, when summits take place in periods of significant Washington-Moscow tension, they take place in 3rd party states. This was true during the Cold War and more recently during the first year of the Biden administration.
Term 2 Trump foreign policy - from tariffs to NATO to soft power to China and Russia - is an epic mess. One reason seems to be that the administration is operating with two conflicting, equally flawed, views of the world and the US's place in it. 🧵
Trump administration policy is partly grounded in a worldview in which the US is one of several great powers, each with its own sphere of influence, but also in a view of the US as the unconstrained unipole.
The Trump administration talks about seeing the world as if it's 1892 while trying to party like it's 1992 - or 2002.
Absolutely agree with Amb. Fried that this is very damaging - to the US's credibility and national interest. But the idea that this will damage the US position in talks with Russia suggests that these are genuine negotiations. I really don't think they are. 🧵
Everything we can hear and see and everything we know about the dominant figures in the Trump administration indicates that the talks are being seen as a mechanism for building an informal US-Russia alliance. Attempting to carve up Ukraine is part of how this is being done.
As I've said before, it looks very much as if the peace deal that the Trump administration is trying to negotiate with the Kremlin is between the US and Russia, not Russia and Ukraine. For them, Ukraine seems to be entirely expendable. So does the rest of Europe.
“Do you still believe [Putin] when he tells you he wants peace?” Trump: “You know, I believe him, I believe him, I think we’re doing very well with Russia […] I’m finding it more difficult, frankly to deal with Ukraine.” 🧵
Trump’s claim he’s “strongly considering” sanctions against Russia needs to be viewed in the context of this comment and the many other similar things he's said in the past. Penalising Russia is not something he's ever wanted to do, whatever Russia has done.
Maybe the Trump team decided they need to give the impression Trump isn't as pro-Russian as he's now widely seen to be (though they're obviously happy for the whole admin to sound anti-Ukrainian). But as soon as you get Trump in front of a camera, he'll say this sort of thing.