Thread by @ADavidHaleJoint

Looking at successful play % and explosive play % differentials (+ successful plays by O vs D) and damned if FSU isn't looking a good bit like... Georgia and Alabama?

I posted this yesterday and people used it to mock advanced stats but... both FPI and SP+ have FSU at No. 24. (@bcfremeau's F+ has them at 35)

Obviously the W-L is what it is, but perhaps we are overlooking something with FSU's input because the output has been frustrating.

@bcfremeau The next 3 games will decide Mike Norvell's future. I get that, and I'm not suggesting 1 win vs Wake should change anyone's mind. But...

The advance metrics like FSU (at least, a lot more than the fans do) and this year's team is night/day better than last year...

@bcfremeau It's worth doing a head-to-head comparison beyond just wins and losses. Yes, part of this is because last year was SO bad... but this is MAJOR improvement.

FSU lost in OT to 8-1 UVA
FSU lost by 3 to 7-2 Pitt (5-0 w/new QB)
FSU lost by 8 to 7-2 Miami

Yes, Stanford was AWFUL but FSU also had 150 > yards than the Cardinal & didn't turn it over. Insane they lost.

Again, the last 3 games will tell us a lot. Beat Clemson & Florida -- down as they are -- and I think that speaks volumes. Lose and a change seems inevitable. But there is real improvement here & FSU should be careful not to throw that away when there's no guarantee of better.

And yes, I acknowledge that if the underlying stats say you're good and you're still losing games, that's probably not good for the coaches. I'm not making the case one way or the other... just suggesting there's context worth considering.

And yeah, last FOUR games. Clemson, VT, NCSU & UF. My brain hurts from looking at ACC standings. My apologies.