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Space cowboy. Gangster of love. Maurice. Writes about the pompatoose sports for ESPN. david.hale@espn.com
May 12 13 tweets 4 min read
This week's ACC spring meetings covered some hot topics -- from NIL and tampering enforcement to the new scheduling plans, but with a B1G TV deal valued at more than $1.1B coming soon, it all felt a bit like arranging deck chairs on the Titanic. A quick 🧵. @ByPatForde talked w/Jack Swarbrick a few weeks back in which the ND AD speculated on seismic changes coming: "We're going to have these 2 conf that have distanced themselves from anyone else financially, that's where I see it starting to break down."
si.com/college/2022/0…
May 11 13 tweets 2 min read
Lots of interesting (if not entirely definitive) comments from Jim Phillips as he wraps ACC spring meetings…

Biggest takeaway: “I think it’s time for us to look at alternative models for football” including possibility of having CFP run football rather than NCAA. Phillips: “Either you continue to go down road you're on or do something diff & what's the most sustainable? … Is there an opp to look at what it may be if you’re going to re-do the NCAA, maybe there’s something parallel that has interaction but standalone ability to it."
Apr 19 15 tweets 5 min read
I've already prattled on way too much about NIL issues today, but there's another big one about the way it's being covered that's really been bothering me, and I wanted to explain. A 🧵 on terminology vs. substance and why sports media is failing on this issue... (1/15) Amateurism and the rules of college sports are NOT being subverted by NIL. They're being subverted by a black market pay-for-play that everyone is just calling NIL. There is a big difference & it's a distinction the media needs to take seriously (myself included). (2/15)
Apr 19 4 tweets 1 min read
I wish the convos on NIL, portal, etc weren’t always binary - coaches say this, players deserve that - because a lot of coaches are trying to offer honest insight rather than just complaining. Moreover, there’s a 3rd invested stakeholder here: The fans who make it all profitable. Now, yes, *some* coaches are just complaining. And some have insight that’s just not relevant (Why can’t the world be 1973 again!?!). But some of their concerns are entirely justified, and that’s lost in the morass of being pro-amateurism or pro-athlete.
Apr 19 4 tweets 1 min read
2 things I genuinely wonder about:

1) is it capitalism? Because it’s not *exactly* an open & free market. It’s more a legal black market, if that makes sense.

2) will there be ample buyer’s remorse in a few years? Is this just CFB Game Stop? Or legit investment? Like, there are def + & - with how things are working with NIL so far, but I also wonder how much any of the existing feedback loop we’re using as an evaluation tool is indicative of what the longterm market will be.
Jan 14 10 tweets 2 min read
a quick thread on Jim Phillips comments on playoff expansion:

1. had been told the ACC was the primary league holding up expansion, but they're not alone. While ACC is the most steadfast in their position, it's largely shared by others, including the Big Ten.

(1/x) 2. In July, Phillips was preaching the need for this holistic review of all of college football. This isn't a new thing, and he's not wrong -- the landscape has changed a ton and it's worth understanding those dynamics before making big changes to CFP.

(2/x)
Sep 12, 2021 10 tweets 2 min read
Quick thoughts on FSU…

This was never going to be a good football team. The hope was 6-6, a bowl game, and enough enthusiasm about progress to keep the 2022 class together.

After Sunday, that all seemed well within reach, if not entirely likely.

Then last night happened. In a micro sense, the loss was inexcusable.

Yes, the final play. That goes without saying. It’s screwing up Football 101, which puts the heat squarely on Norvell. I get it.

But the limitations of this team were on display throughout. It never should’ve come down to 1 play.
Aug 2, 2021 12 tweets 3 min read
Let’s be real about Clemson & FSU...

1.) If a guy who isn’t a reporter has a “source” be very wary.

2.) There’s no reality in which “streaming” numbers matter here.

3.) ACC, SEC & Clemson all flatly deny conversations happened.

But none of that matters as much as… 4.) the Grant of Rights.

FSU, Clemson & every other non-ND ACC team are contractually obligated to forego their TV revenue through 2036 if they departed before then. In hard numbers, that's approaching a half-billion dollars -- or 5-6x what Texas & OU are on the hook for...
Aug 2, 2021 10 tweets 2 min read
Nothing predicts success like explosive plays. Drives with at least 1 explosive play (run of 12+, pass of 16+) average 4.1 points. Drives without one average 0.5 points.

So, who are the players who create the most explosive plays? (1/8) Explosive play%, returning P5 RBs (min 100 touches)
Robinson, Tex - 18.1%
Gibbs, GT - 17.5%
Vaughn, KSt - 16.8%
Smith, A&M - 16.5%
Jackson, OkSt - 15.1%
Ealy, Miss - 14.6%
Durant, Duke - 14.3%
Horvath, Pur - 14.1%
(2/9)
Jul 25, 2021 34 tweets 15 min read
Me & @aadelson wrote this spring how the ACC can close the gap w/SEC/B1G. There were essentially 2 real answers from ADs we spoke to: Texas/OU or Notre Dame.

Well, Texas/OU appear off the table.

So let’s talk ND...

(very long thread… 1/x)

espn.com/college-footba… @aadelson First, let's clarify where things stand w/ND: When Notre Dame joined the ACC as a partial member (all sports but football + 5 guaranteed football games/year) it agreed to a.) the same grant of rights deal (through 2036) as everyone else (except for football) + a big promise (2/x)
Jul 23, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
Feedback from a longtime administrator on what comes next for non-SEC folks:
1.) Shore up own membership. Don’t get poached.
2.) Reach out to anyone who might offer value to see if they’re open to a move.
3.) Investigate strategic alliances… i.e. Pac-12/ACC/B12 partnership. Multiple ADs I’ve spoken to today speculated that a 32-team super conference could be the ultimate outcome here, as it would be the only way to help offset the SEC’s massive power advantage, though I think a more diffuse alliance between leagues is the more likely option.
Jul 23, 2021 9 tweets 4 min read
As @kbohls reported (and I'm told is accurate) the Texas/OU to SEC move is looking likely and would happen sooner than later. So probably time to be thinking about what this means in the big picture for the sport of college football, too. (Thread... 1/x) @kbohls As we've seen with everything from COVID to NIL, there is no centralized body that says "here's what's good for college football and we need to work together for the larger enterprise." It's every man (or conference/school) for himself, which is what gets us here. (2/x)
Jun 15, 2021 11 tweets 3 min read
What does expanded playoff mean for reg season?

Assume a P5 w/multiple Ls by end of Oct was pretty much out. Same for non-undefeated G5.

From 2014-19 that = 86 teams (thru 8 gms), avg 14.3/year.

Now include 2-loss P5 & 1-loss G5 = 178 teams, a 107%⬆️ in “playoff hunt” teams. Essentially by Week 10 each year, we’ve eliminated 115 or so teams from playoff conversation (many well before that), leaving only about 11% of teams playing “meaningful” games. New playoff would more than double that, which is a great thing for the regular season overall.
May 28, 2021 18 tweets 4 min read
😡⚜️ULL U9.5
🔒🔒🔒
Lock of the year. ULL was immensely lucky in 2020. They were lucky in TOs (+10). They were lucky in starting field position (+7% in %drives starting in +territory). They were lucky in close games (6-1 in games decided by a TD or less). Hammer the under. 🌈Hawaii U6
🔒🔒
10th biggest swing in PoT margin from 2019-20. Just 59% of drives in 2H were close or ahead. No other team < 60% won 5. 3-1 in close/late games. Same +TO/-yardage w/winning record profile as BC.
Dec 28, 2020 5 tweets 1 min read
The Ohio State QB history is so perplexing. Since 1980, they’ve had 20 different QBs lead the team in passing & list includes some elite college guys, but the only one to start more than 5 games and finish with a winning record in the NFL is… Mike Tomczak, who went undrafted. Meanwhile, of those 20 QBs, 13 were drafted, but just two in the first round — two of the all-time busts.

Art Schlicter & Dwayne Haskins.

Schlicter, 0-8 as an NFL starter.
Haskins, 3-9.
Nov 19, 2020 15 tweets 6 min read
Me and @aadelsonESPN spent 4 months talking to more than 4 dozen people for an autopsy on FSU's fall from dominance. I hope you'll read the story. But wanted to share a little more insight here, too. A quick 🧵… espn.com/college-footba… @aadelsonESPN First, this story is unique to FSU because Tallahassee is a unique place & the Seminoles are a unique brand. But many of the lessons of FSU's downturn are evident in what's happening at Texas, Michigan, Nebraska and elsewhere. Making a CFB program work at an elite level is HARD.
Oct 23, 2020 33 tweets 6 min read
You haven't lived until you've bet an under on a Friday night between two AAC teams that are a combined 11-31 in the past 2 calendar years. Enjoy.

💸🤑🏧

🌟🌀🐂Tulsa/USF U51

💸🤑🏧

Week7️⃣: 4-1-1
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 23-15-2 B1G day ahead...

💸🤑🏧

🥃🏇🏀Kentucky -3.5
🖕🎾👀MTSU +4
🤠💻💡Texas -6.5 1H
🐍Okla -7
🦀🤷‍♂️Maryland +12
👙🍻Coastal -2.5
🐘🌞🌐Bama/Tenn U66

💸🤑🏧

Week🎱: 0-1
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 23-16-2
Oct 16, 2020 35 tweets 13 min read
Hi, Coronabro here. Let's talk a bit about how things are going with college football and the virus. A thread... With the Saban news & another round of game postponements, it's getting tougher and tougher to suggest this is all going well. But is it going badly? Was playing a bad idea? It's hard to say because we have no established metric for success. That's by design.
Oct 15, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read
Highest % explosive plays (vs FBS, min 2 games)

1 Bama, 21.65%
2 UNC, 18.91%
3 Miss, 18.61%
4 UF, 18.03%
5 Clemson, 17.92%
6 BYU, 17.89%
7 VT, 17.14%
13 GT, 14.63%
36 Okla, 12.4%
28 UGA, 12.13%
42 Pitt, 11.84%
66 UVA, 8.56%
68 Cuse, 7.66%
72 Cincy, 6.43% Lowest % explosive allowed
1 Marshall, 5.15%
2 Baylor, 6.37%
3 UGA, 6.77%
4 Army, 7.45%
5 Miss St, 7.46%
6 BYU, 7.52%
8 UNC, 7.52%
9 Clemson, 9.18%
10 Arkansas, 9.88%
15 Pitt, 10.42%
25 Miami, 11.73%
48 FSU, 13.27%
50 Aub, 13.51%
65 Lville, 16.3%
71 Wake, 20%
72 Miss, 21.92%
Aug 14, 2020 14 tweets 3 min read
Spoke with Miami U president Julio Frenk today. He said Miami has had zero positive tests in last 3 rounds of testing. Some other tidbits... (thread...) Frenk is former Minister of Health in Mexico. On the current situation: "I've had a long career in making decisions and this is the toughest because of all the unknowns we still have and how dynamically this is evolving."
Jun 15, 2020 28 tweets 6 min read
This tweet got me thinking a lot about how we tell the human stories of college athletes and it’s really required me to take a hard look at the process. Adam’s larger issue is 100% right but I want to address "tragic stories overcome” trope, which runs deep. A (long) thread (1/x) First, since he's mentioned in Adam's tweet, let me say that there's no nicer human in this biz than Tom Rinaldi, so NONE of this is a critique of him. Rather, its a critique of me and (hopefully) a point to consider for all of us who tell stories for a living (2/x)