Looking at successful play % and explosive play % differentials (+ successful plays by O vs D) and damned if FSU isn't looking a good bit like... Georgia and Alabama?
I posted this yesterday and people used it to mock advanced stats but... both FPI and SP+ have FSU at No. 24. (@bcfremeau's F+ has them at 35)

Obviously the W-L is what it is, but perhaps we are overlooking something with FSU's input because the output has been frustrating.

Let's do a quick 🧵summing up the implications of yesterday's ACC settlement and what it means for the near and long-term future... Come along on a journey with me. (No, not you FSU fans.) 1) Did FSU & Clemson "win"?

Short answer: Yeah, mostly. If the ultimate goal was to exit the ACC as soon as possible and land a full share in the SEC or B1G (as Okla, Tex, UCLA and USC did) then, no, this isn't the ideal outcome. But... everything else is pretty great for them.

Who's up for another college football 🧵 detailing some incomprehensible topic at great length?

Oh, come on -- it's too early to start drinking, so you might as well learn something.

Let's dig in on revenue sharing! Because it's coming and it's still a mystery even to many insiders.💰💰💰 1) What is rev share and why should I care?

As part of the House settlement, expected finalized in July, schools will be allowed to directly pay athletes up to $20.5 million annually. This basically cuts out the collectives as the middle man, freeing up schools to negotiate directly with players.

Lot of ACC news yesterday & a lot of Qs still remain. Let's unpack it all w/a 🧵. Hold on to your 🍑. This could be a long one. 1. Is this the end of the ACC's troubles?

For now, mostly. It's worth noting no deal on rev distribution is done yet, but from the folks I've talked to, it certainly is strongly trending in that direction.

I don’t wanna keep revisiting this because there’s no point, but I so wish the dialogue on strength of schedule could be a bit more nuanced and informed, so a quick 🧵 and then I promise I’m done… Should SoS matter? Of course! But it’s ridiculous to suggest it is a qualifying metric. In fact, it’s an independent variable and therefore should be ancillary to the convo, not the basis of the convo.

So seemingly big steps in the FSU/Clemson vs ACC battle, but it's a pretty complex (and very preliminary) conversation right now. Wrote about the specifics of what's happening, but let's do a quick 🧵to hit on the more nuanced issues, too...

espn.com/college-footba… What exactly is happening?

Clemson/FSU offered a proposal to the ACC -- the details of which are VERY preliminary -- that would effectively allow brand awareness/ratings to be a component of the league's success initiatives, thus giving a larger slice of the revenue pie to the schools with the biggest viewership. The idea is this money -- along with success initiatives -- could bridge the gap between the ACC's biggest brands and the SEC/B1G, thus allowing Clemson/FSU to drop lawsuits, address financial concerns, and call it a win, while the ACC gets immediate membership security and welcomes its two biggest football brands back into the fold.

I’ve said this before but it warrants repeating: The portal thing is a red herring with Clemson. The problem is an overestimation of it’s own players. Dabo has kicked the tires in the portal. He just never finds players he likes more than the ones he has, and that’s bad.

🧵 DJU and Cade Klubnik were both elite recruits so Clemson obviously wasn’t the only one to misevaluate. But when you recruit like Clemson - small classes, few targets - you can’t miss at that position back to back.

And not sure what about Christopher Vizzina would be diff.

Each year I do a deep dive of each position group in the ACC and then rank them. I was lazy this offseason and didn't do it but then 2 people asked about it yesterday and I thought... why not? It'll need to be a bit more abridged than past years, but better than nothing. Starting with WR/TE rooms... First thing I did was dig into a bunch different stats from last season designed to min the impact of the QB and focus on more receiver-controlled metrics, then ranked them to get a 2023 baseline. Here's how they shook out:
1 SMU
2 UNC
3 Mia
4 GT
5 Pitt
6 Cuse
7 VT
8 FSU
9 UVA
10 Wake
11 Lou
12 Clem
13 Cal
14 Duke
15 BC
16 Stanford
17 NCSU

Of the many, many issues coming out of the House settlement, one that's not getting enough attention is the new roster limits. Yes, we've heard plenty about the number (105?) and what it may mean for walk-ons (Dabo is mad!). But there's so much more to it... A quick 🧵. espn.com/college-footba… First, an explanation: Why is this happening? Basically the House settlement eliminates scholarship limits an unfair restraint of athletes. BUT a roster limit is just a means of competitive balance (semantics!), so NCAA can still cap that. (And note: NCAA cannot cap scholarships but schools can determine their own limit.)

Each year I put out a list of my favorite preseason win total bets. I look at strong luck-based indicators due for a regression to the mean -- things like avg starting field position, points off turnover margin, close game success, red-zone/goal line success, etc… 🧵 I don't typically look at schedules. I do give a bit of credence to what some smart friends in the business tell me. And if I have strong feelings about a team, I may choose to ignore the luck numbers at my own peril.

Ok, who’s ready for yet another ACC realignment deep dive? 🧵 (1/as many as it takes until 2036). Again, here’s my thread from *checks notes* two months ago. Most of this will be the same but repetition is helpful I guess.

Each summer I think it's a good idea to tweet out preseason ACC position rankings despite the fact that a) they often look dumb in retrospect & b) you guys love to tell me how dumb I am. Why do I feel the need to fuel that fire? Am I a masochist? Stupid? Bored?

Yes.

🧵 Anyway, let's do it again for 2023. Will post groups sporadically over the next few weeks as I have time to dig into the numbers. Part of the analysis is last year's stats, part my educated guesses for 2023. None should be bookmarked to taunt me in December. Let's start with DBs.

The past week has been filled with a lot of speculation on the future of the ACC, so I figured I'd put together a little thread to clarify some of the issues and options the league has.

This may be long but the TL;DR is this: THERE IS NO EASY ANSWER. (1/🧵) Start with this: In the past 12 months, Jim Phillips & ACC leadership have gotten rid of divisions & built the framework for a success-based revenue sharing model. Those were non-starter talks for a decade. It may ultimately be band-aids on bullet wounds, but it's commendable. 2/

Jim Phillips says he encourages schools to come review the grant of rights. “That’s not a warning sign of something bad.” Phillips says he’s “supportive” of a national governance structure for football; quality control analysts allowed to coach on field; not capping roster size for fall camp…

Every December, I put together a list of my 10 favorite pieces of journalism I've read in the past year. Technically this year, I included 12. I refuse to play by the man's rules. Anyway, if you're looking for some great reads, here ya go... 🧵 10. @DKThomp is among my favorite Twitter follows, and his treatise on how the "Moneyball for Everything" approach sucks the enjoyment out of life really underscored a trend I've been wrestling with myself. theatlantic.com/newsletters/ar…

Had a chance to talk with Bronco Mendenhall today. He said he spoke to the mother's of all 3 players who were killed yesterday morning. "The words coming out of my mouth weren't even making sense. It wasn't even really coherent. It doesn't feel right."
(1/x) Bronco had written out words to describe each & it's just unfathomable to hear how much promise they all had. "It's as if I've lost three of my own sons and not being able to console or be there to counsel and nurture and be doing that, I'm hurting."
(2x)

There are a handful of lynchpin teams in the rankings. By that I mean, teams upon which other rankings are built. For example: Penn State.

We know Ohio State and Michigan are good because a) we believe it to be true and b) they beat Penn State.

(1/x) Ohio State's second-best win is ND by 11 (then maybe Toledo).

Mich's second-best win is Maryland by 7 (then Iowa).

But Penn State's "good" wins are Purdue (by 4) and Auburn. Not exactly "proof."

I think all 3 are good to great, but it's a pyramid built on itself.

A quick 🧵 on UNC & "analytics."

First, a h/t to the great @RoddyJones20 who started looking into this weeks ago & got me interested.

UNC has gone for it on fourth down 21 times this year with enormous success. Let's talk about what that means... @RoddyJones20 First, analytics are about WAY more than just 4th down, but lets focus on that for now. Also, what we're really talking about isn't "analytics" but probabilities. If you do X enough times, you can expect Y result. In this case, X is going for it and Y is converting.

Noted yesterday Jimbo Fisher's QB mediocrity post-Jameis... and while development is certainly one culprit, it's pretty amazing how awful the recruiting has turned out. A brief and colorful 🧵 on every high school QB he signed after 2012.

https://twitter.com/ADavidHaleJoint/status/1569404122620624898

John Franklin III (3*, No. 30 dual QB, 2013)
Career starts: 0
TD/INT: 1/0

Never threw a pass at FSU. Went JuCo, had a 7-TD game that was called due to a brawl, was on LastChanceU, transfered to Auburn, then FAU. Currently with Tampa Bay Bandits of the USFL.

I was on vacation all last week, but luckily nothing big was going on.

Oh right...

Anyway, lots of rumors about ACC and realignment, and I figured I'd share the best info I have at the moment on the league's future.

A 🧵... Let's start with Notre Dame. Fact 1: ND has a contract with the ACC that says it must join the ACC in football if it joins a league. Fact 2: Virtually no one expects ND to join the ACC. How can that be?

Not enough people got mad at me yesterday for my QB tiers, so let's go back to the well today...

Every year, I go through the ACC position by position and rank them 1-14.

Is it accurate? No. Is it helpful? No. Is it offseason content? Barely.

Anyway, let's do it again... First up: Receivers and tight ends. We'll try to make this a Jordan Addison safe space, but he's illustrative of the challenges here. 26 ACC players had 500+ rec yards in 2021. 5 transferred, 9 graduated.

(10 more had 400-499 w/3 grad, 2 transfer)