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on other platforms also under aDavidHaleJoint. email me or whatever at david.hale@espn.com
Aug 16, 2023 11 tweets 2 min read
Each year I put out a list of my favorite preseason win total bets. I look at strong luck-based indicators due for a regression to the mean -- things like avg starting field position, points off turnover margin, close game success, red-zone/goal line success, etc… 🧵 I don't typically look at schedules. I do give a bit of credence to what some smart friends in the business tell me. And if I have strong feelings about a team, I may choose to ignore the luck numbers at my own peril.
Aug 3, 2023 34 tweets 7 min read
Ok, who’s ready for yet another ACC realignment deep dive? 🧵 (1/as many as it takes until 2036). Again, here’s my thread from *checks notes* two months ago. Most of this will be the same but repetition is helpful I guess. Image
Jun 28, 2023 18 tweets 4 min read
Each summer I think it's a good idea to tweet out preseason ACC position rankings despite the fact that a) they often look dumb in retrospect & b) you guys love to tell me how dumb I am. Why do I feel the need to fuel that fire? Am I a masochist? Stupid? Bored?

Yes.

🧵 Anyway, let's do it again for 2023. Will post groups sporadically over the next few weeks as I have time to dig into the numbers. Part of the analysis is last year's stats, part my educated guesses for 2023. None should be bookmarked to taunt me in December. Let's start with DBs.
May 19, 2023 37 tweets 10 min read
The past week has been filled with a lot of speculation on the future of the ACC, so I figured I'd put together a little thread to clarify some of the issues and options the league has.

This may be long but the TL;DR is this: THERE IS NO EASY ANSWER. (1/🧵) Start with this: In the past 12 months, Jim Phillips & ACC leadership have gotten rid of divisions & built the framework for a success-based revenue sharing model. Those were non-starter talks for a decade. It may ultimately be band-aids on bullet wounds, but it's commendable. 2/
May 17, 2023 8 tweets 2 min read
Jim Phillips says he encourages schools to come review the grant of rights. “That’s not a warning sign of something bad.” Phillips says he’s “supportive” of a national governance structure for football; quality control analysts allowed to coach on field; not capping roster size for fall camp…
Dec 29, 2022 14 tweets 28 min read
Every December, I put together a list of my 10 favorite pieces of journalism I've read in the past year. Technically this year, I included 12. I refuse to play by the man's rules. Anyway, if you're looking for some great reads, here ya go... 🧵 10. @DKThomp is among my favorite Twitter follows, and his treatise on how the "Moneyball for Everything" approach sucks the enjoyment out of life really underscored a trend I've been wrestling with myself. theatlantic.com/newsletters/ar…
Nov 15, 2022 9 tweets 3 min read
Had a chance to talk with Bronco Mendenhall today. He said he spoke to the mother's of all 3 players who were killed yesterday morning. "The words coming out of my mouth weren't even making sense. It wasn't even really coherent. It doesn't feel right."
(1/x) Bronco had written out words to describe each & it's just unfathomable to hear how much promise they all had. "It's as if I've lost three of my own sons and not being able to console or be there to counsel and nurture and be doing that, I'm hurting."
(2x)
Nov 13, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
There are a handful of lynchpin teams in the rankings. By that I mean, teams upon which other rankings are built. For example: Penn State.

We know Ohio State and Michigan are good because a) we believe it to be true and b) they beat Penn State.

(1/x) Ohio State's second-best win is ND by 11 (then maybe Toledo).

Mich's second-best win is Maryland by 7 (then Iowa).

But Penn State's "good" wins are Purdue (by 4) and Auburn. Not exactly "proof."

I think all 3 are good to great, but it's a pyramid built on itself.
Nov 7, 2022 10 tweets 4 min read
A quick 🧵 on UNC & "analytics."

First, a h/t to the great @RoddyJones20 who started looking into this weeks ago & got me interested.

UNC has gone for it on fourth down 21 times this year with enormous success. Let's talk about what that means... @RoddyJones20 First, analytics are about WAY more than just 4th down, but lets focus on that for now. Also, what we're really talking about isn't "analytics" but probabilities. If you do X enough times, you can expect Y result. In this case, X is going for it and Y is converting.
Sep 13, 2022 14 tweets 3 min read
Noted yesterday Jimbo Fisher's QB mediocrity post-Jameis... and while development is certainly one culprit, it's pretty amazing how awful the recruiting has turned out. A brief and colorful 🧵 on every high school QB he signed after 2012. John Franklin III (3*, No. 30 dual QB, 2013)
Career starts: 0
TD/INT: 1/0

Never threw a pass at FSU. Went JuCo, had a 7-TD game that was called due to a brawl, was on LastChanceU, transfered to Auburn, then FAU. Currently with Tampa Bay Bandits of the USFL.
Jul 11, 2022 26 tweets 9 min read
I was on vacation all last week, but luckily nothing big was going on.

Oh right...

Anyway, lots of rumors about ACC and realignment, and I figured I'd share the best info I have at the moment on the league's future.

A 🧵... Let's start with Notre Dame. Fact 1: ND has a contract with the ACC that says it must join the ACC in football if it joins a league. Fact 2: Virtually no one expects ND to join the ACC. How can that be?
Jun 2, 2022 29 tweets 7 min read
Not enough people got mad at me yesterday for my QB tiers, so let's go back to the well today...

Every year, I go through the ACC position by position and rank them 1-14.

Is it accurate? No. Is it helpful? No. Is it offseason content? Barely.

Anyway, let's do it again... First up: Receivers and tight ends. We'll try to make this a Jordan Addison safe space, but he's illustrative of the challenges here. 26 ACC players had 500+ rec yards in 2021. 5 transferred, 9 graduated.

(10 more had 400-499 w/3 grad, 2 transfer)
May 24, 2022 8 tweets 2 min read
Chatted today with the founder of an NIL agency, who shared a pretty interesting story about his early experience in the marketplace that may perhaps dovetail with Nick Saban’s ire… a quick 🧵
(1/x) "Last summer, end of August before football season, we got hired by a media co. to bring in between 6 and 8 SEC football players to do an appearance on their podcast network. We were asked to spend $500/wk for 15 min, to hire these student-athletes to do these podcasts.” (2/x)
May 12, 2022 13 tweets 4 min read
This week's ACC spring meetings covered some hot topics -- from NIL and tampering enforcement to the new scheduling plans, but with a B1G TV deal valued at more than $1.1B coming soon, it all felt a bit like arranging deck chairs on the Titanic. A quick 🧵. @ByPatForde talked w/Jack Swarbrick a few weeks back in which the ND AD speculated on seismic changes coming: "We're going to have these 2 conf that have distanced themselves from anyone else financially, that's where I see it starting to break down."
si.com/college/2022/0…
May 11, 2022 13 tweets 2 min read
Lots of interesting (if not entirely definitive) comments from Jim Phillips as he wraps ACC spring meetings…

Biggest takeaway: “I think it’s time for us to look at alternative models for football” including possibility of having CFP run football rather than NCAA. Phillips: “Either you continue to go down road you're on or do something diff & what's the most sustainable? … Is there an opp to look at what it may be if you’re going to re-do the NCAA, maybe there’s something parallel that has interaction but standalone ability to it."
Apr 19, 2022 15 tweets 5 min read
I've already prattled on way too much about NIL issues today, but there's another big one about the way it's being covered that's really been bothering me, and I wanted to explain. A 🧵 on terminology vs. substance and why sports media is failing on this issue... (1/15) Amateurism and the rules of college sports are NOT being subverted by NIL. They're being subverted by a black market pay-for-play that everyone is just calling NIL. There is a big difference & it's a distinction the media needs to take seriously (myself included). (2/15)
Apr 19, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
I wish the convos on NIL, portal, etc weren’t always binary - coaches say this, players deserve that - because a lot of coaches are trying to offer honest insight rather than just complaining. Moreover, there’s a 3rd invested stakeholder here: The fans who make it all profitable. Now, yes, *some* coaches are just complaining. And some have insight that’s just not relevant (Why can’t the world be 1973 again!?!). But some of their concerns are entirely justified, and that’s lost in the morass of being pro-amateurism or pro-athlete.
Apr 19, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
2 things I genuinely wonder about:

1) is it capitalism? Because it’s not *exactly* an open & free market. It’s more a legal black market, if that makes sense.

2) will there be ample buyer’s remorse in a few years? Is this just CFB Game Stop? Or legit investment? Like, there are def + & - with how things are working with NIL so far, but I also wonder how much any of the existing feedback loop we’re using as an evaluation tool is indicative of what the longterm market will be.
Jan 14, 2022 10 tweets 2 min read
a quick thread on Jim Phillips comments on playoff expansion:

1. had been told the ACC was the primary league holding up expansion, but they're not alone. While ACC is the most steadfast in their position, it's largely shared by others, including the Big Ten.

(1/x) 2. In July, Phillips was preaching the need for this holistic review of all of college football. This isn't a new thing, and he's not wrong -- the landscape has changed a ton and it's worth understanding those dynamics before making big changes to CFP.

(2/x)
Sep 12, 2021 10 tweets 2 min read
Quick thoughts on FSU…

This was never going to be a good football team. The hope was 6-6, a bowl game, and enough enthusiasm about progress to keep the 2022 class together.

After Sunday, that all seemed well within reach, if not entirely likely.

Then last night happened. In a micro sense, the loss was inexcusable.

Yes, the final play. That goes without saying. It’s screwing up Football 101, which puts the heat squarely on Norvell. I get it.

But the limitations of this team were on display throughout. It never should’ve come down to 1 play.
Aug 2, 2021 12 tweets 3 min read
Let’s be real about Clemson & FSU...

1.) If a guy who isn’t a reporter has a “source” be very wary.

2.) There’s no reality in which “streaming” numbers matter here.

3.) ACC, SEC & Clemson all flatly deny conversations happened.

But none of that matters as much as… 4.) the Grant of Rights.

FSU, Clemson & every other non-ND ACC team are contractually obligated to forego their TV revenue through 2036 if they departed before then. In hard numbers, that's approaching a half-billion dollars -- or 5-6x what Texas & OU are on the hook for...