China has dramatically expanded its presence and influence across the Pacific Islands with the intent to strategically align the region more closely with its own interests, I argue in a new essay for @ForeignAffairs based on two years of research for @CrisisGroup.
While China’s deepening involvement is expanding economic opportunities, its statecraft is also undermining Pacific nations’ democratic governance, accountability and national sovereignty, inducing corruption and elite capture, and roiling Pacific geopolitics.
The Pacific Islands depend on foreign aid and see strategic rivalry between major powers as a means of attracting attention and resources. China is promoting itself as an alternative to traditional partners as it seeks to establish a regional sphere of maritime dominance, prevent Western rivals from deterring or constraining it, and burnish its credentials with developing countries.
I think it’s part of a PRC island chain strategy that aims to dominate the first island chain, disrupt Western powers in the second, and eventually be able to divert and distract them in the third.
The twelve sovereign Pacific Island countries and several territories are strategically important for global fisheries, maritime security and a stable Asia-Pacific balance of power. For Western powers, increased Chinese influence, strategic infrastructure and militarisation there could complicate intervention in potential conflicts over flashpoints such as the South China Sea and Taiwan, sap resources and put stress on alliances.
To balance and constrain China’s expanding influence, Pacific Islands and their other partners should do more to implement the Pacific Islands Forum’s Boe Declaration, 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, and new Ocean of Peace Declaration, all of which reflect the Pacific consensus on priorities.
Together, they should work to strengthen governance, transparency and regional cohesion, step up efforts to enhance expertise on China and national security, support independent media and civil society, and counter foreign propaganda and interference.
Direct article link in the comments. Thanks to Joseph Widacki and Patricia Xavier for research assistance!
#ChinaPacific #PacificIslands #BluePacific #OceanOfPeace #Oceania #CCP #IndoPacific #ChinaAustralia #ChinaNewZealand #ChinaUS #geopolitics #navy #SLOC #StrategicRivalry
While China’s deepening involvement is expanding economic opportunities, its statecraft is also undermining Pacific nations’ democratic governance, accountability and national sovereignty, inducing corruption and elite capture, and roiling Pacific geopolitics.
The Pacific Islands depend on foreign aid and see strategic rivalry between major powers as a means of attracting attention and resources. China is promoting itself as an alternative to traditional partners as it seeks to establish a regional sphere of maritime dominance, prevent Western rivals from deterring or constraining it, and burnish its credentials with developing countries.
I think it’s part of a PRC island chain strategy that aims to dominate the first island chain, disrupt Western powers in the second, and eventually be able to divert and distract them in the third.
The twelve sovereign Pacific Island countries and several territories are strategically important for global fisheries, maritime security and a stable Asia-Pacific balance of power. For Western powers, increased Chinese influence, strategic infrastructure and militarisation there could complicate intervention in potential conflicts over flashpoints such as the South China Sea and Taiwan, sap resources and put stress on alliances.
To balance and constrain China’s expanding influence, Pacific Islands and their other partners should do more to implement the Pacific Islands Forum’s Boe Declaration, 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, and new Ocean of Peace Declaration, all of which reflect the Pacific consensus on priorities.
Together, they should work to strengthen governance, transparency and regional cohesion, step up efforts to enhance expertise on China and national security, support independent media and civil society, and counter foreign propaganda and interference.
Direct article link in the comments. Thanks to Joseph Widacki and Patricia Xavier for research assistance!
#ChinaPacific #PacificIslands #BluePacific #OceanOfPeace #Oceania #CCP #IndoPacific #ChinaAustralia #ChinaNewZealand #ChinaUS #geopolitics #navy #SLOC #StrategicRivalry
My essay builds on some excellent earlier @ForeignAffairs articles by @CharlesEdel and @KathrynPaik as well as that of many other Pacific experts, to whom I have a deep debt of gratitude for sharing their insights. foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
China’s Pacific gambit is part of its efforts to escape the constraints of a continental power and become a maritime great power, as this recent @ForeignAffairs essay argues: foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…
The PLAN also seeks to prevent America from acting as an offshore balancer foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
A Chinese presence in the Pacific also expands its ability to interfere with U.S. efforts to assemble and sustain Indo-Pacific coalitions: foreignaffairs.com/china/case-pac…
As military scholars @AndrewSErickson and @jwuthnow
have noted, Chinese analysts have adopted the American concept of them as chains of islands (岛链) that serve as springboards for Western military deployments, milestones for the People’s Liberation Army to measure its own force projection, and concentric chains of containment China must break. andrewerickson.com/2016/03/barrie…
have noted, Chinese analysts have adopted the American concept of them as chains of islands (岛链) that serve as springboards for Western military deployments, milestones for the People’s Liberation Army to measure its own force projection, and concentric chains of containment China must break. andrewerickson.com/2016/03/barrie…
Pacific officials and journalists express particular concern about widespread reports of graft and influence activities deployed to advance Chinese state objectives—a suite of tactics remarkably similar to what Philip Zelikow and his co-authors have defined in @ForeignAffairs as #StrategicCorruption. foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…
Ultimately it will be Pacific peoples themselves and the choices they make that determine their region’s destiny. There was some innovative policymaking on display at this past September’s Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting in Honiara, particularly the “Blue Pacific Ocean of Peace Declaration” sponsored by Fiji and new rules on partnerships that together set out normative standards for a region free from militarization and external coercion and committed to uphold international law and state sovereignty. Communique PDF: forumsec.org/sites/default/…
Still, enlightened support and engagement from partners can make a material difference. If the U.S. Congress would pass its proposed Pacific Partnership Act, that would be a step in the right direction. congress.gov/bill/119th-con…
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