Is China’s PMI fall the reason behind recent global market sell off?

A PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) over 50 = expansion

Below 50 = contraction

China’s PMI at 50.6 = dangerously close to flatlining.

And this isn’t just a number. It’s the heartbeat of the world’s factory.

China’s factory boom is fading?

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Why does a dip in China’s PMI send global shivers?

Because China is still:

● The world’s largest exporter
● The top buyer of industrial commodities
● The supply chain anchor for 100+ nations

If it sneezes, global manufacturing catches a cold.
The October 2025 number matters more than usual.

Why?

Because just a month ago, it hit a 6-month high of 51.2

Economists were cheering a recovery.

Markets priced in a rebound.

Investors got comfortable.

And now?

It just reversed.
This isn’t just a Chinese issue.

Here’s what a slowing China triggers across the world:

● Commodity prices soften (steel, copper, oil)
● Export-heavy economies lose orders
● Emerging markets face deflation pressure
● Supply chains slow down again
● Foreign investments retreat from risk
Now imagine what that means for India.

● China slows = orders from India drop
● Input costs shift = raw material volatility
● Global growth fears = FII outflows begin
● Stock market momentum weakens

But the scariest part?

China’s slowdown isn’t about just demand.

It’s about structural fatigue:

● Youth unemployment near 20%
● Property sector still collapsing
● Consumer spending weak
● Deflation ghost creeping back
● Foreign firms relocating quietly

The dragon is tired—and dragging everyone with it.
October’s PMI drop is just the surface crack.

What lies beneath:

● Slower global iPhone production
● Delay in auto components to Europe
● Chemical supply chain disruptions in India
● Software project cuts from Chinese clients

Every sector gets hit differently but surely.
Let’s make it painfully real:

If you’re in:

● Pharma – raw material costs just got volatile again
● IT services – Asian clients are freezing contracts
● Manufacturing – orders from East Asia may dip
● Small exports – logistics costs could shoot up

This is the domino effect that hits silently:

Chinese slowdown → Global slowdown → India slowdown → Your salary, your bonuses, your growth freeze

Not instantly.

But unavoidably.
The world may have de-risked from China…

But it hasn’t decoupled.

70% of India’s API imports still come from China.

40% of electronics components still China-based.

Your “Made in India” still has a Chinese spine.
This isn’t just a macro story.

It’s a market trap.

Markets love the illusion of recovery.

Then rug-pull when data turns sour.

That’s what this PMI drop is: a quiet rug pull.

The rebound is on pause. The fear is loading.

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More from @stockifiabhijit

Nov 3
In 1965, Singapore was a mess.

● No natural resources
● High unemployment
● GDP per capita = $516
● Crime, dirt, and disease were everywhere
● It had fewer toilets than many Indian villages

But in just one generation, it became:

● 3rd cleanest city in the world
● 1st in Asia for sanitation
● 2nd lowest crime rate globally
● Among the wealthiest nations per capita

How did this miracle happen?
How Lee Kuan Yew turned Singapore into the cleanest city on Earth and what we can learn from it.

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Lee Kuan Yew wasn’t just a Prime Minister.

He was the CEO of Singapore Inc.
And his obsession wasn’t just with GDP—it was with dignity.

He believed cleanliness was a precondition for development.
Not the result.

While the world obsessed over policies, Lee obsessed over psychology.

He said:

“If you want to change a nation, change how its people feel about their surroundings.”

That’s exactly what he did.
Step 1: Shame Was a Strategy

Lee made littering a crime—but he also made it a source of shame.

In the 1970s, public campaigns ran with slogans like:

● “Be Ashamed to Litter”
● “Use your hands to keep your country clean”
● “Cleanliness is next to godliness—and patriotism”

This wasn’t just policy—it was nation branding.
Singaporeans weren’t just citizens. They were custodians.
Read 11 tweets
Nov 1
India’s median age is currently 28.2.

But our fertility rate has dropped below replacement (2.0 vs 2.1).

This means we’ve stopped having enough children to replace the working population.

India is young. But not for long.

Right now, we have the largest working-age population in the world.

But within 20 years, this strength could flip into a massive crisis.

Bookmark and retweet this thread to revisit it laterImage
By 2040s:

Youth bulge becomes old-age burden

Retirees outnumber workers

Pension costs explode

Growth slows sharply

Just like Japan and China today.

Why is this happening?

Because people can’t afford to have children anymore.

Especially women.
Child-rearing today means:

₹1 crore+ for housing and education

No support from the system

Career sacrifices for mothers

So many women are choosing not to marry or have children. And it’s a logical economic decision.

This isn’t a cultural problem.

It’s an economic failure.

And if we don’t fix it now, our “demographic dividend” will become a deficit.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 14
15 Red Flags to Watch Before Investing Your Hard-Earned Money in Any Stock

Red Flag 1: Cash flows don’t match profits

If a company shows profits but never has cash in the bank, it’s cooking something.

Example:
Yes Bank showed profits for years, but operating cash flow was erratic. Eventually, the truth exploded.

Bookmark and retweet this thread to revisit it laterImage
Red Flag 2: Promoter holding constantly decreasing

If the founders keep selling stake, they may know something you don’t.

Example:
Zee Entertainment promoters steadily reduced holding, triggering concerns about long-term commitment.

Red Flag 3: Promoter pledged shares rising every quarter

High pledging = desperation. If stock price falls, lenders sell and crash the stock.

Example:
DHFL had over 80% of promoter shares pledged before its collapse.
Red Flag 4: Promoter is always on TV

If the CEO is spending more time in studios than boardrooms, it’s probably a PR pump.

Example:
Several small-cap stocks like 8K Miles had flamboyant promoters doing media rounds right before the stock crashed.

Red Flag 5: Rising debt without matching earnings or interest coverage

If debt rises faster than profits, the company’s drowning silently.

Example:
Jet Airways had ballooning debt while interest coverage ratio collapsed before the final nosedive.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 12
How the Baniya Community knows the best-kept financial secret.

Go to any wholesale market, textile market or steel godown.

They are dominated by surnames like:
Agarwal, Gupta, Bansal, Khandelwal, Poddar, Jalan, Goel

Here’s what separates them from the rest of India:

While you chase 12% annual returns, Baniyas chase one thing only:
How fast can the same rupee come back and compound again?

Most of India works on a salary.
Baniyas work on rotation.

You get paid once a month.
They get paid 3 times a month.

Their business cycles don’t run on years.
They run on days.

Bookmark and retweet this thread to revisit it laterImage
While the average investor prays for 12% annual returns…

A Baniya business aims for:

25–35% ROCE (Return on Capital Employed)
15–30 day inventory cycles
40–60 day receivable cycles

And zero obsession with the stock market.
Most people ask:
“How much return will I get?”

Baniyas ask:
“How fast can I get my principal back… and reinvest it again?”

It’s not about chasing returns.
It’s about compounding velocity.

The traditional Baniya portfolio has 3 silent pillars:

1. Rotating Capital
2. Pledged Gold
3. Land Banking

Let’s break them down.
Read 12 tweets
Oct 11
Why India’s largest consumer tech IPO, LG Electronics India, might be the next multibagger.

Since 1997, LG has built more than just brand recall — it’s built trust.

• No. 1 in India’s washing machines (34% share)
• No. 1 in microwaves (51%)
• No. 1 in TVs (28%)
• Massive player in air-conditioners and fridges

36,000 stores.
1,000 service centers.
594 cities.

If Reliance Jio owns the digital India, LG owns the hardware India lives with.

Bookmark and retweet this thread to revisit it laterImage
The Numbers Are Screaming Efficiency

FY25 EBITDA margin: 13%
Net profit margin: 9%
RoCE: 43% (industry peers: 20–25%)

LG India is producing at 77% capacity utilization — and still adding more plants.
In Andhra Pradesh alone, it’s investing ₹5,000 crore for a mega facility.

Once operational (FY27), it adds 5.5 million units of capacity — pushing total revenues past ₹32,000 crore.

That’s a 16% CAGR over two years — with zero new debt.
The Secret Weapon: Localisation

85% of what LG sells in India is already made here.
Not imported.
Not assembled.
Manufactured in India.

That’s how it keeps costs low, profits high, and taxes under control.
And with India’s “China+1” momentum, LG’s domestic production base gives it the ultimate export edge.

Andhra Pradesh’s upcoming plant isn’t just for Indians — it’s LG’s ticket to becoming an export hub for Asia.
Read 10 tweets
Oct 10
China is building a ₹83 lakh crore sports economy.

Not for pride.
Not for medals.

But as a strategic weapon to fuel its GDP.

Here’s how they’re turning football, badminton and gym memberships into economic fuel—and what India can learn from it:

Bookmark and retweet this thread to revisit it laterImage
In 2023, China’s sports economy was worth ~$540 billion.

By 2030, it’s targeting $1 trillion.

That’s bigger than the GDP of Switzerland or Saudi Arabia.

But this isn’t about cricket-style obsession.

It’s about economic engineering.

Let me explain:
For every ₹1 spent on sports in China, the economy generates ₹7.8.

Buy a ticket → book a hotel → eat local → share content → buy merch.

One football match = full-blown economic festival.

And China wants to repeat this… 10,000 times a year.

So what’s the plan?

Step 1: Transition from an export-heavy economy to domestic consumption.

Step 2: Use sports as the gateway drug.

Step 3: Let the multiplier effect do the heavy lifting.

This is not a theory. It’s already happening.
Read 9 tweets

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