Thread by @SamRamani2

Kazakhstan has officially joined the Abraham Accords

Here's the context behind that move and what it means /THREAD

Kazakhstan and Israel already have established ties, they date back to the immediate aftermath of the Soviet Union's collapse (1992 to be precise)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu already visited Kazakhstan in 2016 /1

Kazakhstan has also maintained an equi-distant policy in the Gaza War and the prevailing view from journalistic pieces/research on Kazakh society is that it wants to be insulated from Middle East developments

So engagement with Israel is par for the course /2

Kazakhstan was historically a significant oil supplier to Israel as well

At the time of Netanyahu's visit in 2016, 25% of Israeli oil was Kazakh in origin and Israeli business leaders were actively pushing for more imports /3

Support for engagement with Israel cuts across both the cliques of the first president Nursultan Nazarbayev and current president Tokayev

Karim Masimov, who lost power with the 2022 protests, lobbied for Israeli ties, and now Tokayev has entered the Abraham Accords /4

So there is little new in Kazakhstan-Israel relations but the strategic impact could be profound

It will hasten US involvement in non-oil industries, thinking fintech, AI and smart cities here which are key priorities for Tokayev with a new AI ministry /5

It will also ensure that the US C5+1 integration push has greater Republican support ahead of Rubio's expected tour of the region

Azerbaijan's pro-Israel stance and Sharm al-Sheikh participation helped it with Trump, Kazakhstan wants the same playbook to work /6

Critical minerals are also a major frontier for US investment in Kazakhstan, which is straddling the US-China tech rivalry and mitigating sanctions exposure associated with some activities of Kaz Minerals

Much like DRC and Ukraine, rare earths are key to Trump's calculus /7

We should be sceptical of claims that this will add energy to the Abraham Accords

The de-escalation in Gaza is unlikely to lead Saudi Arabia to join the accords or to further expansion in the GCC region or to Syria/Lebanon /8

Azerbaijan could join the accords but its relationship with Israel is much deeper and closer than Kazakhstan

So the Abraham Accord label is mostly semantics and merely reinforces existing trends /9

US-Central Asia policy could get a win from Kazakhstan's move

As Russian soft power wanes, China's connectivity dominance endures and Iran's exclusion from the regional order grows, now is the time for the US to step up its role /END