The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
Nov 7, 2025 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
The US government shutdown is expanding:

Today, the FAA officially began cutting 700 flights PER DAY across 40 airports.

Airports are now facing a shortage of 3,500 air traffic controllers with 4+ MILLION passengers impacted.

What happens next?

Let us explain. Image
Today, the US government shutdown officially enters day 38.

This marks the longest shutdown in US history and nearly 5 TIMES the average.

But, today also marks the first day that the shutdown has gone "mainstream."

The FAA has announced flight cancellations beginning today. Image
Below is a map of the 40 airports impacted.

More than 700 US flights were canceled as of 9 AM ET today.

The FAA announced that 10% of flights may be canceled until the end of the shutdown.

So far, 4 MILLION travelers have been impacted by cancellations and delays. Image
As the shutdown drags on, the economic impact is compounding.

Moody's estimates that the shutdown is now costing the US $30 billion PER WEEK.

If the shutdown lasts until the end of this month, the total cost could exceed $250 billion.

Never in history has this happened. Image
On top of this, SNAP benefits are being delayed.

SNAP is the largest federal food assistance program in the US.

Currently, 42 million Americans are still waiting on aid from the federal government.

The average monthly benefit is ~$250 per person for a total of $100B/year. Image
The question becomes, will the government shutdown last until Thanksgiving?

If so, as many as 30% of the ~5.8 million travelers could be impacted by delays and cancellations.

This could impact up to ~2 million travelers with the total nearing 10 million by December 1st. Image
The US government shutdown is now expected to last through November 18th.

This has moved up from the December 1st expectations seen at the beginning of this week.

However, multiple attempts to reopen the government have failed.

We believe November 18th is optimistic. Image
The stock market is beginning to react.

Currently the S&P 500 is on track to fall -3% this week.

This marks a -$1.7 trillion drawdown in market cap as concerns over the shutdown are growing.

Markets are pricing-in a prolonged disruption of commerce in the US. Image
Meanwhile, total US debt is rising by an average of +$17 billion PER DAY during the shutdown.

Yesterday ALONE, US debt surged +$45 billion in a single day.

We are officially less than 5% away from hitting a record $40 trillion in US debt.

Deficit spending is out of control. Image
This week, volatility has returned as uncertainty continues to grow.

The macroeconomy is shifting and stocks, commodities, bonds, and crypto are investable.

Want to receive our premium analysis?

Subscribe to access our premium analysis below:

thekobeissiletter.com/subscribe
Multiple large cap technology stocks are now down over 10% on the week.

Nvidia has erased -$550 billion of market cap as trade uncertainty returns.

We must end the shutdown and restore stability.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with The Kobeissi Letter

The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @KobeissiLetter

Feb 5
What is happening in crypto?

Since October 10th, crypto markets are now down -50%, erasing $2.2 TRILLION worth of market cap.

Bitcoin has officially erased ALL of its post-election rally, now down -10% since Trump's election.

Why is it crashing? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
As of 8:00 AM ET today, Bitcoin has officially erased its post-election rally.

Yet, over the last 60 days, the fundamental picture for crypto is actually vastly unchanged.

This is why many investors are confused.

Why is crypto crashing if the fundamental picture is unchanged? Image
The answer to this question requires going back to October 10th.

The most recent TOP in crypto came on October 6th, just 4 days before the -$19.5 billion record liquidation.

Something structural appears to have shifted on October 10th.

And, markets never truly recovered. Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 20
This is unprecedented:

If President Trump acquires Greenland and "controls" Venezuela, the US would gain control of 1.2 MILLION square miles of land.

This is ~42% larger than the Louisiana Purchase, the largest US acquisition ever.

What's next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
It was an incredibly busy weekend.

On Saturday, Trump announced new 10% tariffs on eight European countries amid his push for Greenland.

Trump says these tariffs rise to 25% on June 1st.

They will remain until a deal is reached for "complete and total purchase of Greenland.” Image
The result was a series of escalations on the trade front and the EU threatening to retaliate.

Now, the EU Parliament is looking to end the 2025 US-EU trade deal.

Trump proceeded to double down, saying US acquiring Greenland is "imperative for national and world security." Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 7
Trump is going after the US housing market:

President Trump just announced he is BANNING single-family home purchases by institutional investors.

Within minutes, Blackstone's stock erased as much as -$17 BILLION today.

What happens next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
For years, investors have been upping purchases of single-family homes in the US.

At the start of the pandemic in 2020, investors saw purchases account for ~14% of transactions.

Now, that share is up to ~27% as the market has become increasingly unaffordable for buyers. Image
As a result, the median age of a first-time homebuyer in the US has surged to a record 40 years old.

This is up from a median age of 33 years old in 2021 and 29 in 1981.

But the question now becomes:

Is this the result of large institutional funds buying houses? Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 4
The Venezuela plot thickens:

While Venezuela holds 303 BILLION barrels of oil reserves, much of this is HEAVY crude oil.

Texas and Louisiana also *happen* to have 6 of the LARGEST HEAVY crude oil refineries in the world.

What does this mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
In the early 2000s, Venezuela was a MUCH larger oil producer than the US.

In fact, Venezuela produced 3 TIMES as much oil, at nearly 3.3 million barrels per day.

By 2020, Venezuela's production had declined to just 900K/day, while the US hit 5 million/day.

This is key. Image
First, Venezuela has been heavily sanctioned by the US for years.

This resulted in old infrastructure, hindering the ability to extract HEAVY crude oil.

Heavy oil is far more expensive to extract than light crude.

This requires advanced techniques like steam injection. Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 27, 2025
The Silver Situation:

Silver prices are now up a MASSIVE +175% in 2025 and set to post an 8-month win streak for first time since 1980.

Gold and silver have added a combined +$16 TRILLION in market cap this year ALONE.

What is happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
As you may know, our view for 2025 has been "own assets or be left behind."

This year, just about ALL assets have pushed higher.

But, as of late, gold and silver are leading the charge, now up 4 and 8 TIMES as much as the S&P 500 YTD.

It all started with a weaker US Dollar. Image
The US Dollar is currently down -9% YTD on track for its worst year since 2017.

As rate cuts kicked off, the US Dollar saw further weakness.

And, as President Trump's new Fed Chair is set to be announced, markets are pricing-in even more dovish Fed policy.

This is key. Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 18, 2025
What just happened?

Core CPI inflation in the US just unexpectedly fell to 2.6%, its LOWEST level since March 2021.

3 months ago, inflation rose to a 6-month high, and last month, the October CPI inflation report was "cancelled."

What changed? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
At first glance, this looks like one of the best inflation reports in years.

The 40 bps drop in headline and core inflation is one of the largest YoY declines since 2023.

And, this comes as core inflation was expected to INCREASE.

It also comes at an interesting time. Image
Last month, the US cancelled the October CPI inflation report.

They cited "a lapse in appropriations" which prevented data from being collected during the government shutdown.

Why is this important?

It means the BLS had to make tons of assumptions for last month's data. Image
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(