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Nov 7 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
The US government shutdown is expanding:

Today, the FAA officially began cutting 700 flights PER DAY across 40 airports.

Airports are now facing a shortage of 3,500 air traffic controllers with 4+ MILLION passengers impacted.

What happens next?

Let us explain. Image
Today, the US government shutdown officially enters day 38.

This marks the longest shutdown in US history and nearly 5 TIMES the average.

But, today also marks the first day that the shutdown has gone "mainstream."

The FAA has announced flight cancellations beginning today. Image
Below is a map of the 40 airports impacted.

More than 700 US flights were canceled as of 9 AM ET today.

The FAA announced that 10% of flights may be canceled until the end of the shutdown.

So far, 4 MILLION travelers have been impacted by cancellations and delays. Image
As the shutdown drags on, the economic impact is compounding.

Moody's estimates that the shutdown is now costing the US $30 billion PER WEEK.

If the shutdown lasts until the end of this month, the total cost could exceed $250 billion.

Never in history has this happened. Image
On top of this, SNAP benefits are being delayed.

SNAP is the largest federal food assistance program in the US.

Currently, 42 million Americans are still waiting on aid from the federal government.

The average monthly benefit is ~$250 per person for a total of $100B/year. Image
The question becomes, will the government shutdown last until Thanksgiving?

If so, as many as 30% of the ~5.8 million travelers could be impacted by delays and cancellations.

This could impact up to ~2 million travelers with the total nearing 10 million by December 1st. Image
The US government shutdown is now expected to last through November 18th.

This has moved up from the December 1st expectations seen at the beginning of this week.

However, multiple attempts to reopen the government have failed.

We believe November 18th is optimistic. Image
The stock market is beginning to react.

Currently the S&P 500 is on track to fall -3% this week.

This marks a -$1.7 trillion drawdown in market cap as concerns over the shutdown are growing.

Markets are pricing-in a prolonged disruption of commerce in the US. Image
Meanwhile, total US debt is rising by an average of +$17 billion PER DAY during the shutdown.

Yesterday ALONE, US debt surged +$45 billion in a single day.

We are officially less than 5% away from hitting a record $40 trillion in US debt.

Deficit spending is out of control. Image
This week, volatility has returned as uncertainty continues to grow.

The macroeconomy is shifting and stocks, commodities, bonds, and crypto are investable.

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Multiple large cap technology stocks are now down over 10% on the week.

Nvidia has erased -$550 billion of market cap as trade uncertainty returns.

We must end the shutdown and restore stability.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. Image

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More from @KobeissiLetter

Nov 4
It's official:

The US government has now entered day number 35, making it the LONGEST in history.

Since the shutdown began on October 1st, the US government has borrowed $600 BILLION worth of debt.

That's +$17 billion PER DAY.

What's happening? Let us explain. Image
Today marks day 35 of the 2025 US government shutdown.

This ties the longest shutdown in history seen during President Trump's 1st term, in December 2018.

Historically speaking, the average length of a shutdown is 8 days.

The current shutdown is now 4.5 TIMES longer. Image
And, the end appears to be distant at best.

Currently, markets see the US government shutdown lasting until December 1st, per Polymarket.

This would mark a 61 day government shutdown, or 26 days LONGER than the current record.

The economic implications are spreading. Image
Read 12 tweets
Nov 2
The elephant in the room:

AI stocks are outperforming consumer stocks by 20%+ over the last 60 DAYS.

And, as AI investment exceeds $1 TRILLION per year, car repossessions are at 2009 levels.

There are 2 US economies: Rich vs Poor, and AI is the lifeline of it all.

(a thread) Image
For the first time in history, the Magnificent 7 stocks are now worth over a combined $20 TRILLION.

This means that these 7 stocks alone now account for a record ~35% of the S&P 500.

Not even the Dot-Com bubble in 2000 saw concentration like this.

Tech has taken over. Image
And, this has been fantastic for investors.

Since the April 2025 bottom, the S&P 500 has added over +$18 trillion in market cap.

Last week, Nvidia became the first company to become worth over $5 trillion.

Over HALF of the S&P 500's gains since 2023 are from 7 stocks. Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 27
AI growth is exploding:

The US now has 5,426 data centers, more than ALL other major countries COMBINED.

And, there are $40 BILLION worth of US data centers under construction, up +400% since 2022.

This will soon reshape the global economy.

What's next? Let us explain. Image
The magnitude of the data center boom became apparent in early-2024.

For the first time in history, the value of US data centers under construction will soon EXCEED office buildings.

Just 3 years ago, data centers were 1/7 the size of offices.

This is a modern-day gold rush. Image
Take a look at Nov. 2022, when ChatGPT launched.

Since then, data centers under construction in the US have surged from $12 billion to $40 billion.

The craziest part is energy usage projections show we are STILL early.

This has both upstream and downstream effects. Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 22
We just witnessed history:

Yesterday, gold prices fell -5.7%, marking the largest 1-day drop since April 2013.

This is a ~4.5 sigma move.

In other words, such a large move only happens in 1 out of 240,000 days in a "normal" world.

What does it mean? Let us explain. Image
Statistically speaking, gold's move was a near 5-sigma event.

However, in reality, gold has seen a move of this magnitude only 34 times since 1971.

In other words, this occurs in 34 of 13,088 trading days or 0.26% of the time, per @BurggrabenH.

This is EXTREMELY rare. Image
Silver prices were hit even harder.

Silver fell as much as -9% in a single-day and posted its largest daily decline since the 2020 crash.

Gold and silver neared -$3 trillion in lost market cap in just over 24 hours of trade.

But, we cannot ignore what happened BEFORE this. Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 17
Margin debt is SKYROCKETING:

In September 2025, US investors took on another +$67 billion in margin debt bringing the total to a record $1.13 TRILLION.

Meanwhile, 5 TIMES levered ETFs have just been proposed to the SEC.

What does it all mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Investor leverage has nearly DOUBLED over the last 2 years.

This marks a similar pace to the rise seen following the 2020 pandemic.

As a % of GDP, margin debt now sits just below the 2021 peak.

Needless to say, risk appetite is arguably at its strongest level ever. Image
Everyone wants a piece of the AI Revolution.

US households’ allocation to equities has hit a record 52%.

This now surpasses the 2000 peak of 48% by 4 percentage points.

The percentage is also TWICE as high as at the 2008 low.

Americans are piling into the stock market. Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 13
Absolute insanity:

Gold has now officially added +$10 TRILLION of market cap in 12 months, up a massive +55%.

Over the last 72 hours, gold has rallied on EVERY headline, even as the S&P 500 erased -$2.5 trillion in 5 hours.

What's next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Gold has reached a point where the technicals seem to be irrelevant.

Gold's MONTHLY RSI just hit 91.5, marking its most "overbought" level since 1980.

Yet, gold prices are up another +$110/oz on the day today.

Not even 2001, 2008, or 2020 saw a reading of 90+! Image
For a while, it was all about the declining US Dollar.

But, take a look at this.

Even as the US Dollar has rebounded nearly +2% since October 4th, gold prices are up over +5% over the same period.

Gold is so strong that it's defying its historical relationship with the USD. Image
Read 12 tweets

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