Thread by @GrahamTAllison

1/ Betting on the November 2026 Midterm Election: Clues from Applied History.

2/ The November 2026 midterm elections are shaping up to be one of the most consequential in memory. If Democrats take the House, President Trump will find his superpowers constrained. If on top of that there were also a recession, he could find himself fighting to escape impeachment.

3/ As observers have noted, the highest objective on President Trump’s current agenda is to win next November in order to continue pursuing his vision to Make America Great. Maintaining his power is a prerequisite to pursuing other initiatives.

4/ Does history offer any clues from what happened on Tuesday that illuminate what is likely to happen a year from now in the midterm elections?

5/ @CNN’s Harry Enten (@ForecasterEnten) has asked this question and offered an insightful analysis of earlier elections.

6/ According to Enten, what was so notable about Democrats sweeping victory in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia? This has happened only 5 other times in the past 90 years.

7/ What happened in each of these cases? Answer: Democrats went on to win control of the House the following year.

8/ As the financial adviser’s caution reminds us, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Nonetheless, a shoutout for Enten for applying history to inform our expectations about the future.

9/ You can hear what he had to say here.

https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1985352507858583646