Chris Elmendorf Profile picture
Nov 9 19 tweets 6 min read Read on X
I stumbled across the work of Arthur E. Stamps III this morning and, wow, my eyes have been opened!

He's was (is?) an architect in San Francisco who wrote scores of academic papers on the mass public's aesthetic preferences & the failure of "design review" to serve them.

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His studies show that San Francisco's Great Downzoning (1970s & early 1980s) was an answer to the public's genuine aesthetic dislike of residential dingbats and downtown "refrigerator towers."

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The city planning department had tried to address the public's dislike of midcentury "plain box" style by mandating bay windows. That yielded "Richmond Specials" -- a slight improvement, but still substantially disfavored by public relative to random sample of existing bldgs.

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What came next was one regulatory misfire after another.

- The city strictly controlled heights, but Stamps's studies find that public barely objects to taller infill until the new building is approx 2x the height of its neighbors

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- Tall and interesting downtown skyscrapers were welcomed by the public (even as the refrigerator boxes were hated).

The Transamerica Building: beloved since 1974!

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- The city passed a bunch of rules about setbacks, stepbacks, break up the massing. Stamps finds that people don't care about this stuff. Worse, "breaking up the massing" often introduces asymmetries, yet the public prefers symmetry.

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What the public really *does* care about, according to Stamps's studies, is:
- (1) maintaining the stylistic homogeneity of homogeneous block faces,
- (2) architectural decoration,
- (3) trees/greenery.

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The most mind-blowing of the Stamps studies elicited ratings of 2-3.5 story Victorians and 2-3 story "little boxes" in the ~1940s style.

No surprise: people love Victorians, especially the tall grand ones.

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And yet, the most disliked composite block face consisted of uniform "small plain buildings" with one "large fancy" Victorian, sticking out like a gorgeous sore thumb.

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Stamps also studied the highly subjective design review process, as it was practiced in various Bay Area jurisdictions.

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He found that, on average, design review resulted in (at best) very marginal improvements vis-a-vis the public's aesthetic preferences.

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Neither the architect-board judging "beauty contests" to allocate downtown office space in San Francisco, nor the lay-citizen review board w/ jurisdiction over Bernal Heights, acted in accordance with the public's preferences.

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Citizens who self-selected into serving on the Bernal review board were disproportionately conservatives who liked small, plain houses and were not interested in building.

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Stamps also asked the organized neighborhood groups that regularly participate in planning commission hearings to submit pictures of buildings they consider to be exemplars.

The general public liked them about as well they liked a a random sample of the city's buildings.

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As for architect-submitted exemplars, they received essentially the same average rating from the mass public as Richmond Specials! (screenshot in preceding tweet).

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There's lots of other interesting stuff in Stamps's body of work, including on architect vs. layperson judgments (very different!), and on diversity in layperson judgments (he finds great consistency across demographic groups).

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The one absence in his work is any assessment of the relative importance of aesthetic vs. non-aesthetic attributes of new development (e.g., affordability, resident demographics, traffic, etc.).

@dbroockman, @j_kalla & I will have results on that front soon!

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In the meantime, if you know whether Arthur E. Stamps III is still alive (and if so, how to reach him), please reply!

/end
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More from @CSElmendorf

Nov 1
If builder's remedy comes to San Francisco, the city's anti-demolition / displacement rules go out the window.

For progressive supes & tenant orgs who believe what they say about those rules, enacting a compliant rezoning & constraint removal plan should be Priority #1.

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Explanation:

- s/t narrow exceptions, a city may not impose any local requirements on a builder's remedy project that EITHER (1) render project infeasible, OR (2) prevent a project that meets certain requirements from being constructed "as proposed by the applicant"

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- any local rule or procedure that prevents the demolition of the existing structure on a lot almost surely will "render the project infeasible"

- the exceptions, enumerated in GC 65589.5(d)(1)-(4), do not include tenant or old-building protections

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Read 11 tweets
Oct 30
The SF City Economist report on city's housing-element rezone is a nice bookend to the Court of Appeal's decision last month in New Commune v. Redondo Beach.

Put them together, and it's clear that pretty drastic reforms to CA's Housing Element Law are in order.

🧵/19
Crux of New Commune: If city does fact-intensive, site-specific analysis of "realistic" capacity for new housing, any frustrated YIMBY can dredge up an existing lease, go to court, and get the judge to put the city in Builder's Remedy penalty box.

/2


'
Import of S.F. City Economist report (together w/ HCD's correspondence w/ city thus far): If city instead uses p(dev) method to gauge its plan's capacity, city will be at mercy of the inexpert model gods at HCD.

Who knows what model they'll bless?

/3
Read 20 tweets
Oct 30
California, home of the world's 4th largest economy & several of its top econ departments, has spent 50 years "planning for housing need" w/o availing itself of economic expertise.

The game is up, courtesy of the S.F. city economist. My op-ed in today's @sfchronicle ⤵️.

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What happened?

Every 8 years, CA cities must adopt a plan, called a "housing element," that shows how they'll accommodate their fair share of regionally needed housing.

/2
In June 2020, after some back-and-forth w/ regional "council of governments" (but no input from economists) @California_HCD announced the current target for the Bay Area.

/3

abag.ca.gov/sites/default/…
Read 24 tweets
Oct 21
New CEQA opinion nixing (again!) the voters' repeal of a 30' height limit in San Diego is a near-perfect vehicle for CA Supreme Court to jettison the worst of "Old CEQA."

Very glad that @MayorToddGloria is determined to appeal it.

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Background:

- In 1972, the voters capped heights at 30' "to prevent[] high-rise buildings from obstructing 'needed open breezes, sky & sunshine,'" and to "protect[] against unwanted population density with its problems of ... lack of parking space, increased crime[, etc.]"

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- the 1972 San Diego ballot measure defined "coastal zone" to include not only environmentally sensitive area, but also a big swath of industrially zoned land b/t the freeways

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Read 33 tweets
Oct 16
I read the @CAForever Specific Plan. It's exciting!

Here's a 🧵w/ some highlights & questions.

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First off: the grid & internal transit plan is fantastic.

There's a bike/ped/greenway grid; a slow-car/bike/ped grid; and transit/faster-car grid.

What other city has a citywide grid of bus rapid transit, with BRT lines every 1/2 mile both north-south & east-west?

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Parking:

- Street and public-garage parking will be variable-rate metered 24/7 from the get-go.
- Residents may rent a monthly spot in a public garage.
- No parking minimums for residential projects.

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Read 25 tweets
Oct 13
SB 79 Thread #5.2: Advice for Leg, longer term.

tl, dr: I agree w/ @mnolangray that Leg should focus on (1) lowering construction costs, and (2) protecting incumbent tenants w/o blocking redevelopment on fair terms to tenants.

I also think (3) that...

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Leg should probably try to accommodate the most passionate & deep-pocketed NIMBYs, who might otherwise bring the whole framework crashing down.

Worst case is a "Prop 13 for land use" ballot measure.

/2
Short of a nuclear ballot-measure, NIMBY opposition to SB 79 could induce cities to pass local measures that hinder multifamily housing development across the board, not just SB 79 projects.

/3
Read 26 tweets

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