Thread by @SamRamani2

Sudan is spiraling into the abyss

The RSF's El Fasher massacre has killed thousands and famine threatens the lives of millions

Here is a layout of how we got to this point and why the West deserves much of the blame /THREAD

Western policy towards Sudan has been characterized by contradictions and incoherence

Intense engagement followed by disinterest, shifting attitudes towards perpetrators of violence/genocide and a tendency of abandoning the country when it needed support most /1

The story starts during the Cold War

The US was looking for additional bulwarks against communism to complement its robust foothold in Zaire and forays into the Horn of Africa (Somalia/Ethiopia in alternation) /2

Nimeiry faced a pro-Soviet coup in 1971 and became a convenient partner for the US

The US propped up his military dictatorship and Sudan became the largest aid destination in Africa (even as Jimmy Carter administration clashed with Congress on Zaire aid) /3

Nimeiry revelled in the assistance but flipped on the US by the early 1980s and became a partner with Libyan dictator Muammar al-Gaddafi

The US withdrew support for Sudan and Omar al-Bashir seized power in 1989 /4

Bashir's solidarity with Saddam Hussein during the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and harboring of Osama Bin Laden caused the US to pivot to isolating Sudan

Economically crippling terrorism sanctions and aligments with anti-regime militias followed /5

Regime change was not achieved and Sudan merely pivoted towards Russian arms and Chinese investment

The US lightened up on Bashir when he became a War on Terror partner after 9/11 and spurred by Bush's evangelical allies, promoted peace in Sudan in 2005 /6

Once peace was achieved, the West took its feet off the gas

South Sudan seceded with oil resource competitions flaring and Libya descended into instability after a NATO intervention (this gave the RSF local allies in eastern Libya). But the West did not act /7

In fact, the West outsourcing policy towards Sudan to its Middle East partners (this is a common view amongst Sudanese civil society)

Bashir thawed relations with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar as he broke with Iran and this propped up his regime until 2019 /8

In April 2019, mass protests and a military coup threw Bashir out of power

The West had an opportunity to fully support Sudan's civilian transition, swiftly lift sanctions and stem further turmoil but it dithered and offered half-hearted transition frameworks /9

This gave the Sudanese military structural edges and the Burhan/Hemedti rift caused external powers to align along this fault-line

Burhan got backing from Egypt and Saudi Arabia, Hemedti from Prigozhin in Russia and the UAE /10

This staged the path for a coup in October 2021 which emboldened both generals further

They got assurances of support from their external backers and were confident that they could win swiftly in an all-out war

This false confidence ignited the April 2023 war /11

While the US and Saudi Arabia rushed to push for peace, the foundations behind these efforts were hollow

Inadequate sanctions on the illicit gold trade that powered Hemedti and no new strategy in Libya or CAR or backing of democratic forces /12

To many Sudanese, Molly Phee became a symbol of a US policy that gave too much legitimacy and leeway to autocrats and shunned Sudanese civil society

This ensured that the proxy war in Sudan played out and a resolution to the conflict became impossible /13

USAID's gutting destroyed 80% of Sudan's emergency food kitchens and Britain's aid cuts prevented an efficient response to Sudan's catastrophe in El Fasher (even as intelligence warned of an imminent massacre)

A tragic chain of events that brought us to where we are today /14

Now is the time for urgent diplomacy, humanitarian aid and punishments of the enablers of this war

One has to hope that the external powers that fuel conflict in Sudan belatedly use their leverage to become peacemakers /END