Thread by @GabrielEpsteinX

One month since the Gaza ceasefire went into effect, the death toll reported by the Hamas-run Health Ministry has increased by 1,968 to 69,182. What accounts for the increase, and what has the past month revealed about the death toll? 5 main takeaways:

1. Little of the post-ceasefire increase in the death toll comes from new deaths (13%). Instead, it comes from the bulk addition of deaths reported to the Health Ministry by families (61%), through a form open since Jan 2024, and recovery of previously unreported bodies (26%).

In other words, the increase in the reported death toll is mostly about catching up by counting previously unrecorded deaths. This is to be expected. The Health Ministry can likely process family reports faster without fighting causing large numbers of new deaths.

2. Recoveries of bodies from the rubble and open areas have already fallen off sharply, matching the pattern observed in the January ceasefire. That indicates that most bodies that are simple to recover have been found.

This is also unsurprising. Many families knew the area to search for their relatives in, and the Civil Defense would have had a list of initial locations to check. The bodies that were easiest to recover would have found relatively quickly.

Heavy equipment has flowed into Gaza in recent weeks, but has not resulted in an uptick in bodies recovered — instead, it has mostly been used for clearing roads, preparing ground for displaced persons camps, and other tasks.

With the IDF in control of over half of Gaza, many areas (including all of Rafah, eastern Khan Younis, eastern Gaza City, and most of north Gaza) are inaccessible for retrieval of bodies. Another spike in recovery of bodies should be expected once the IDF withdraws further.

3. Some, though still few, dead militants are being identified as such on social media or by their families. Militant groups rarely publicize deaths and militants dying in combat zones are often not added to the death toll unless their family reports them.

https://x.com/GabrielEpsteinX/status/1987261860694081741

Militant cells are often out of contact for long periods, and family members may not know the fate of militant relatives. That, plus Hamas’ repeated efforts to discourage ID of deceased fighters, makes them less likely to be counted than civilians.

https://x.com/GabrielEpsteinX/status/1985735945316946222

4. New MOH data shows nearly 80% of deaths recorded via the family-reporting mechanism occurred during the first six months of the war, meaning the hospitals/morgues captured a higher share of deaths as time went on. That cuts against the idea of a massive undercount of deaths.

Note: This chart is based on the dates the MOH records the deaths as having occurred on, not when they were reported by families or processed by the MOH and then added to the death toll list.

With the family-reporting form open for over 22 months, this trend appears stable — for most of the war, if deaths were missed, it was because they weren’t taken to hospitals and weren’t reported by their family, not because the fatality-tracking system itself wasn’t functioning.

One major case of deaths likely missed by both mechanisms is those dying in remote/inaccessible areas (i.e., areas with the heaviest/longest fighting), who couldn't be brought to hospitals, but are also not reported by their families. Many militant deaths fall into this category.

5. Major unknowns preclude sharper conclusions about the death toll, including:
- Share of militants among counted deaths
- Scale of uncounted dead, and share of militants among it
- Scale of deaths from internal violence or Hamas executions
⁃ The number of natural deaths

Better approximations of the above—which will by nature be partial, contested, and require much more time and study—will help elucidate the full scale and structure of the death toll.

Sources:
Gaza MOH death toll lists: archive.org/details/moh-de…
MOH dashboard: sehatty.ps/public/#our-st…
Dashboard archive: archive.org/details/moh-da…
My May 2025 report assessing the Gaza death toll: washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
Analysis of the July 31, 2025 MOH list: x.com/GabrielEpstein…