Agustin Lebron Profile picture
Nov 12 16 tweets 3 min read Read on X
➡️ How to tell if the trading company you're interviewing at is actually a scummy bucket shop that will take your money. ⬅️

🧵 👉
Question:
What's a bucket shop?

Answer:
A so-called trading company whose revenue primarily comes out of the people who think they're employees of the company.

A real trading company makes money from profitable trading.
1. They make you put up your own money or pay fees or both.

- A genuine prop trading firm will NEVER ask you to deposit your own capital to trade.
- A genuine prop trading firm will NEVER make you pay for a simulated account as "talent scouting".
Example @Raentrading Image
2. Minimal or no base salary, only profit split.

Bucket shops commonly classify traders as independent contractors who live off trading profits alone, often after splitting those profits with the company.

So if you don’t make money, you earn nothing. And lose your own stake.
Meanwhile, the shop makes money off you:
- Platform fees
- Exorbitant commissions
- Service fees
- Cashout fees

No matter whether you make money or not.
By way of reference:

In 2025, tier 1 prop trading firms pay their new grads $300k base and $200k guaranteed bonus in their first year. They're running a business and that's the going rate.

The firm you're looking at can't pay you a dollar? That's cuz they don't 👏 have 👏edge!
3. Unrealistic promises of huge leverage and job autonomy:

- Be your own boss!
- Trade with 100:1 leverage!
- Unlimited earnings!

No legitimate firm advertises the amount of leverage they'll give you. At every legitimate firm, you'll have a boss.
4. Emphasis on high-frequency click trading in super-liquid markets like CME futures (ES, NQ, etc).

In 2025, I'm quite confident in saying you can't teach someone to click trade ES for edge in a few weeks or months. Or ever probably.
If you don't know whose -ve edge trades you're trading against, you're the one with the -ve edge.

The machines you're trading against react in under a microsecond. And absorb MBs of data per second.

You react in 200ms and look at a few bytes of information.

Not a fair fight.
5. A "great" training program. That you have to pay for.

Legit prop firms don't make you pay for training.

Bucket shops will advertise the names of the "senior traders" who will teach you "everything they know", but it's all bullshit. What they know is how to scam you.
6. Extremely hard "evaluation tests" and profit thresholds.

Scam bucket shops make newhires go through a trial eval period where (a) you're paying for the privilege and (b) the "passing" grades are so stringent that almost no one passes.

But don't worry. You can "try again".
Example:

Make $20k on $100k with 8% drawdown and 2% daily limit. Clear scam. Image
7. Payouts are small, slow and/or never happen.

Many stories are out there if you search. Even if you get lucky and make money, you'll never be able to cash it out.

- Post-facto fines for "bad activity".
- Slow payouts hoping the person gives up.
- Withdrawal fees.

Etc.
8. Some scams don't even have you trade in the real market at all.

They tell you it's real money, but it's all faked inside their own systems. It's much cheaper for them this way.
I'm sure I'll get attacked as "gatekeeping" or some other shit. I don't care. Use your own judgment but if anything you're seeing looks like the above, tread very very carefully.

@KrisAbdelmessih @therobotjames @bookdepth @DeepDishEnjoyer please spread the word.

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More from @AgustinLebron3

Aug 18
1/ I wrote a longer piece about the dangers and downsides of prediction markets.

reducibleerrors.com/prediction-mar…
2/ The argument comes in two parts:

A. Prediction markets are just bad markets. This is because they don't hedge any meaningful risks so everyone trading them is just a sharp or a schmuck.
3/

B. More importantly, they provide societally-destructive incentives by directly monetizing chaos.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 18
Prediction markets (if they take off) could end up being a society-destroying development. 🧵
I'm basing this analysis on @goodalexander's excellent "vibes-based economy" framework.

1. Define "bullshit" as the irrelevance of whether something is true or not.
2. Define the vibes-based economy as one where the ability to capture the public with bullshit is centrally economically valuable.

Example: whether what Joe Rogan says is true doesn't matter. The more he says it, the more it "becomes true" in the sense of making him richer.
Read 12 tweets
Jul 7
🧵
A thread of thoughts on the current Jane Street situation. In the words of another JS alum:

1) What
2/ In the last few weeks, I've gotten a small flood of emails, DMs and messages asking my opinion about the recent news coming out about Jane Street.

First the coup-funding story, and now the accusation from the Indian regulator SEBI.
3/ First some caveats: I don't work at JS and technically haven't worked there in over 11 years. I did do some consulting work for them until roughly 6 years ago, but not as a fulltime employee.

So what I know from direct first-hand experience is extremely old knowledge.
Read 30 tweets
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Radioactively bad finance software startup ideas you see over and over again.

If you're an angel or VC, run away from them. 🧵
1. Bloomberg replacement.
Pitch: "Bloomberg costs $8m/mo. We can clone it and sell it for less."

Fatal flaw: Bloomberg costs $8m/mo because of the IB chat feature, which is where broker deals get done. Your replacement is worthless without moving all of that over. You won't.
2. Alpha as a service
Pitch: "We reanalyze new, oil tanker movements, whatever, and provide our customers real alpha."

Fatal flaw: Alphas are valuable in inverse proportion to how many people know them. If your alpha were real, you should trade it yourself.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 6
It seems clear we've become a post-self-consistency society.

- Back before the Internet, knowing and remembering facts was valuable.
- Now you can easily look anything up. Remembering things is devalued.

The best modern politicians understand and exploit this.
In the ancient pre-Internet past, catching a politician in an inconsistency was a big deal. We called it a "flip-flop". The worst thing a politician could be was a flip-flopper!

George HW Bush lost his reelection because he flip-flopped on "Read my lips, no new taxes."
But now the rate of info generation, storage, and retrieval is enormous. Every word a politician utters is recorded, indexed and is instantly searchable.

It's trivial for reporters to quickly find inconsistent statements by anyone in the public eye.

Result: people tune out.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 9, 2023
Well this is it! I’m excited (and a bit terrified) to announce what I’ve been working on for the last year and a half.

It’s been a wild ride so far, and I’m sure it’s about to get wilder.

coindesk.com/business/2023/…

1/n 🧵👉👉👉
2/ There was a moment back in May of last year when everything crystallized for me and my co-founders Craig and Rich.

Luna, 3AC, and all of that craziness was going on. And one of us (can’t remember who) asked a simple question:
3/ “Why does *anyone* ever trust someone they’ve never met with their money?”

And there are lots of answers.
Read 28 tweets

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