"In all honesty, most finfluencers have pretty shit takes on the market. It kind of arises based on the mismatch between the skills required to actually trade and the skills required to market oneself."
1/ Musings about variance in trading, in sports, and in life.
2/ Why does poker get played for big $ but chess (mostly) doesn’t?
Because of variance.
In chess, if you’re rated 1800 ELO and you’re playing someone rated 2000, you pretty much know exactly your P(win) and P(tie). (It’s 15% and 19%, go check).
3/ There’s no sense in betting for two reasons:
- A wide spread of ability directly creates wide spread in outcome. A 2400 will NEVER lose to an 1800.
- All these probs are pretty much known. $ gets traded when people disagree about probs. No such thing exists in chess.
Many different-seeming activities have a very similar characteristic when you compare skilled people to world-class people:
Almost all of the difference can be explained by the quality of left tail performance.
1. In golf, @LouStagner and @scottfawcett have shown that scratch player vs professional "good shots" are fairly similar (within a few %), but the bad shots are sometimes 2x worse for scratch players vs pros.
And scratch players are really good at golf.
2. In chess, a big part of your ELO is how often and big your blunders are. The difference between an IM and world-class GM isn't that @GMHikaru finds brilliancies much more often, it's that his worst plays are still really good.